damn Bursa might extend IDSS short selling which supposes to be lifted on this coming 2 days ....if so chances of hitting another low seem to be unlikely or maybe need to wait reports are out to show how bad the economy hit by this pandemic

Good, hope that you can share here too!

Best is to define first what are confirmed uptrends to you.

Say I am interested in company ABC. When the price has increased by 20% from the bottom, a voice in the head says, hei, wake up, this is an uptrend! Ha. So go and buy it?

Or use the common stock uptrend definition, higher highs and higher lows on the price, ie, subsequent high is higher than the previous high. Ditto for the lows. So go and buy it?

For me, besides the above 2, I also need other criteria to be positive first. Say, how is the local index showing. Ditto for global indices.

Instead of just using SP500 and/or DJIA or other major indices, I prefer to use something outside that box (to avoid herd effect). Say, copper price (demand and price will increase when the economy recovers). Ditto for other commodities (like the IMF table on commodities I showed earlier on covid19 impact on the economy).

PMI is also a good parameter for me.

By now, I bet you must be saying in your head, this is a case of analysis paralysis! Ha. Overdoing it and cannot make a decision.

Yes and no. The important part is to set a limit to the no of global indices, commodities, PMI etc you want to use as your uptrend confirmation flags.

Going in after getting the confirmed uptrend signals, the price will have gone up by x% from the bottom. Not a problem for me as I am not aiming for the bottom price (ie not trying to get the maximum return). I am aiming for the SWAN with above average returns! Ha.

Cheerio.

How much helicopter money can the Feds drop from the sky ? This becomes the question then,... and if this dropping of helicopter money can be maintained TILL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES START PICKING-UP AGAIN, then prices can be maintained.

I think helicopter money is not the only reason why asset prices keep increasing, though, by no doubt, this could be one of the main reasons.

The stock market recovers before the economy recovers. Reason is because people are forward looking. People don't invest in the past, they invest for the future.

In fact, the stock market starts to show uptrend when a recession is officially declared. Malaysia should be back to normal in a month or two.

Wealth is created from productive work. Helicopter money is meant for relief and not sustainable. With u.s presidential election coming, Congress and w.h are likely to lock horns. Meaningful recovery is unlikely unless DT is not re-elected.

Almost certain economic recession will be officially declared in q4/20 if not earlier. However, this economic recession is likely longer and deeper than previous.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 28 2020, 06:00 PM

Initially, I thought the bound after the dip was 100% "real", the market was recovering. This may tell a different story ...



A similar thing happened in the previous crash.

Not saying it will a repeat, see this ...

Yeah

FED isn't the only reason

We have to ask our self who has been hit hardest

For now at least it has unfortunately hit the lower income while the bigger companies are benefiting from this

This isn't only in tech

The other day Wingstop hit at all time high while single restaurants closed down in US

Plus other than Google freezing hiring tech hasn't laid off as much at least in US

Also who own stocks in US:



Also a small survey done by income for those who can work from home:



Exactly

Economic news is after all a lagging indicator

Thank you for the opinions, bros,... There are just too many ways that we can take this thing. The final motive of wanting to predict this outcome is to be able to make the best decision on when to go in.

For myself,... I have started going back in to the mkt since mid-March, and am still buying-in after every day or thereabout.

Same, I have been buying my targeted shares in parts. Waiting for a large correction, then will start to buy big

What IF the Biggie does not come?

OR How long are you going to wait for this event? What are your triggers in the event the correction does not come?

And this sums it all up - the problem of the TS and his/her utterly stubborn reluctance to admit that such strategy is nothing but market timing.

Waste of time if one does not accept what one is doing.

You are 101% betul, as always!

Trading is basically market timing.

Fair point.

My fall back is to get in, if there is no 2nd dip, when all my 5 flags are green (counter, local index, international index, 2 of copper, PMI, Baltic, x, y).

Copper, PMI etc are still in red.

Then the price would have increased beyond my 20%. For my peace of mind, that is the opportunity cost I need to pay.

Same here, buying bit by bit, but making sure portfolio is well diversified. Recently bought Vietnam equities exposure.

Right now looking out for BNM OPR decision and MYR rate.

Waa. . Want to wait for Dr Copper, n Miss Baltic to be uptrend.. Basically all the traffic lights must be green before u dare to drive. Lama lagi this one.. 😆

5 traffic lights to be green before putting my foot to the pedal. The engine is already running, wasting petrol but petrol is so cheap now.

I used a similar method for my decision to sell back in late 2018. I got 80% red but decided to go anyway, no need for 100% red. No regret. Very happy the way it has turned out. Saved me some money and also peaceful sleep despite DT, Kim, Xii etc I kill you, you kill me rhetoric and later the covid19.

I didn't know Baltic is a Miss. Ha. Still available?

Bros,... this discussion will never end,... better to decide what to do. And do it,...

Just like many things we discuss in many threads inside Lowyat for many years,..



Got tired of it already,...

Eh, if you sold your shares in late 2018, that means for about 1.5 years, you have not been in the stock market?

I do not think we have reached the bottom just yet. I do realize that stock market always tend to be forward looking. However, I don't think it's forward looking enough. Look at US unemployment numbers & their all time high debt level. This is on top of 1 million covid-19 cases as of yesterday....

Whatever that is happening now is purely coming from fed intervention & their helicopter money. Hence it's a bulltrap. Once the companies starts reporting their Q2 results, shit will hit the fan. Massive selloff will happen & even the Fed intervention won't be enough.

This is my 2cent worth of view.

But Fed will QE to infinity. So says Powell

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-c...-213347357.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called on Congress to provide further support to households and businesses as the COVID-19 shutdown continues to grip the U.S. economy.

“This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can do to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible,” Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday.