QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 23 2018, 11:38 AM)
Time the market is impossible task to do.
If market valuation indeed expensive, just trim down the holding.
Totally clearing up is not advisable (especially one is holding on good quality stock) unless one can hit the timing exactly.
What if clearing up, the market continue to go up 10~20% before the crash?
Eg.
A stock you hold now is 10.00, expect market crash, clear up.
But A still going up to 13.00
1-2 years later, market crash, A stock drop 20%, back to 10.00 level.
You buy back at 10.00, seems gain nothing in the process of 'guessing" the crash timing.
A good stock, even experiencing crash after crash, over the long time, it is still going up and way higher than before.
Having said that, the market is indeed experiencing one of longest bull run in the history due to unprecedented massive QE pumping.
Thanks.
The question on delayed crash did cross my mind before. Said to myself, willing to take that risk as long as I have considered and done a proper evaluation. Thus airing it here for comments.
Rightly or wrongly, I prefer to see a lower growth or even a flat growth than a negative growth in my investment. Thus the above get out early strategy. Ha.
The stock is in the average category, one of the oil & gas companies. My early plan was to hand on to it and use it in my retirement when the price should go even higher due to the shortage of oil and gas in 30-50 years time.
But ....
EU has now a policy to stop production of fossil vehicles by 2040, China has the same idea but no time frame yet. Even one of the 7 oil sisters has started in the EV charging business instead of just petrol stations. Growing demand for EV now. AirBus has already started work on using battery for their planes, for short distances.
Yes, even with EV, these 7 sisters will not completely go extinct as their businesses are not 100% on transportation fuel. But it will hurt their businesses.
So ...
With the coming crash and the bleaker business future for the company, there is natural tendency (flaw?) for my mind to suggest to dump the shares now, 2 birds with one stone, figuratively speaking.
QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 23 2018, 12:58 PM)
agree with cherroy.
if you think the holdings you have is undervalue, you may hold on to it.
if you think the stocks have fully valued, then by all means exit
no one can time it so perfectly i guess. but it's always good to have spare cash around.
cash is always king?
Thanks.
See above.
Not trying to time it exactly. Get out when there are enough bad signs and get in when there are confirmed recovery signs. Can be a few months or years gaps.
QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 23 2018, 01:01 PM)
what do you think of the property market?
just like the sub-prime crisis.
however, many have been talking about the property bubble burst since 2012, it's gonna burst it's gonna burst.
but fast forward 6 years now, none happened, the price psf in KL gone up from RM800 to RM2k now?
Saw one very good graph on how the stock-economy-property cycles interact, with stock leading then economy and then property. Cannot find it now. But the one below is similar.
I bet my bottom dollar that in the coming crash, the real estate bubble will burst, or at least leak! Ha.