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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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VincentCS
post Apr 23 2020, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 22 2020, 07:13 PM)
Capitaland Mall Trust (CMT) will be merging with Capital Commercial Trust soon. The strength here will be in the size of this REIT after this, which will allow this REIT to be included into REIT indices everywhere.

But CMT's malls and retails will definitely be affected by the pandemic. No doubt abt that. Thing is how bad will the effect be,... but the offices in its portfolio later will mitigate some of the impact.

Pays dividend four times a year, has not changed this payout frequency.... yet,...
*
Thanks for responding.

Seems like Sg future outlook on this pandemic is still uncertain. The curve isn't flattening anytime soon. Do you think the rising population who favoring WFH will impact the growth and dividend payout of their office portfolio?
icemanfx
post Apr 23 2020, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(VincentCS @ Apr 23 2020, 10:25 AM)
Thanks for responding.

Seems like Sg future outlook on this pandemic is still uncertain. The curve isn't flattening anytime soon. Do you think the rising population who favoring WFH will impact the growth and dividend payout of their office portfolio?
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Sg gomen missed clusters among foreign workers. What do you think of boleh gomen? There is a rumour about 60 foreign workers tested positive at pasar borong selayang but couldn't trace or contact them. Hence, enhanced MCO is imposed in the area.
icemanfx
post Apr 23 2020, 06:29 PM

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SHANGHAI -- More than 40% of China's publicly traded companies booked a net loss for the January-March quarter as the coronavirus outbreak crushed demand across a range of industries, from restaurants and real estate to appliances and automobiles.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/From-Peking...China-s-profits

Similar likely in almost every country in next quarter.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 23 2020, 06:30 PM
Hansel
post Apr 23 2020, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(VincentCS @ Apr 23 2020, 10:25 AM)
Thanks for responding.

Seems like Sg future outlook on this pandemic is still uncertain. The curve isn't flattening anytime soon. Do you think the rising population who favoring WFH will impact the growth and dividend payout of their office portfolio?
*
You are welcome, bro,....

I continue to be cautiously optimistic over the decisions that will be made by the SG govt...

Yeah, I think some offices will be impacetd by the new WFH behaviour being encouraged in these times.

Observe closely as many reports as you can during this earnings season, bro,... some positive egs :-
1) PLife REIT will be setting aside 1.7Mil in case this fund is needed to help tenants during these times. For the most recent reporting yesterday morning, 850K has been 'held back', BUT its dpu payout increased nevertheless compared to the previous corresponding period.
2) Keppel DC REIT's business update did not mention of any amt being held back.
3) Keppel Infra Trust's business update remains steady and the same dpu payout of 0.93c is given out.
4) Keppel Pacific Oak may have some small provisions reported next quarter, but the amt will be small,...

Without doubt, the environment today remains very fluid and things can change very quickly, but we still need to invest. I will bank on our years of studying and exposure to the mkt to be able to help us in these trying times today.

My total portfolio position is +14.99% at close today.
Hansel
post Apr 23 2020, 07:08 PM

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Mapletree Logistics Trust's recent quarter results has just been released. Very good results,... no provision has been held back,.....

Have a look, bro,....
icemanfx
post Apr 24 2020, 12:04 AM

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The oil market is in disarray, a result of a coronavirus-led collapse in demand, surplus supply following a price war and a shortage of storage. Yet there have been plenty of people willing to bet on a rebound in basement-level crude prices, and for many retail investors the vehicle of choice has been an exchange-traded fund. However, those wagers via the biggest American ETF -– the U.S. Oil Fund, or USO -– have contributed to market mayhem and helped push crude prices below zero.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...a&sref=bZ8VXc8U
abcn1n
post Apr 24 2020, 12:58 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 23 2020, 06:52 PM)
You are welcome, bro,....

I continue to be cautiously optimistic over the decisions that will be made by the SG govt...

Yeah, I think some offices will be impacetd by the new WFH behaviour being encouraged in these times.

Observe closely as many reports as you can during this earnings season, bro,... some positive egs :-
1) PLife REIT will be setting aside 1.7Mil in case this fund is needed to help tenants during these times. For the most recent reporting yesterday morning, 850K has been 'held back', BUT its dpu payout increased nevertheless compared to the previous corresponding period.
2) Keppel DC REIT's business update did not mention of any amt being held back.
3) Keppel Infra Trust's business update remains steady and the same dpu payout of 0.93c is given out.
4) Keppel Pacific Oak may have some small provisions reported next quarter, but the amt will be small,...

Without doubt, the environment today remains very fluid and things can change very quickly, but we still need to invest. I will bank on our years of studying and exposure to the mkt to be able to help us in these trying times today.

My total portfolio position is +14.99% at close today.
*
QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 23 2020, 07:08 PM)
Mapletree Logistics Trust's recent quarter results has just been released. Very good results,... no provision has been held back,.....

Have a look, bro,....
*
Thanks for summary. No need to go and individually dig the info. now. BTW, do you think Singapore REITS (non shopping mall reits) will do better/worse than S&P and QQQ indices?

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Apr 24 2020, 12:59 AM
VincentCS
post Apr 24 2020, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 23 2020, 06:52 PM)
You are welcome, bro,....

I continue to be cautiously optimistic over the decisions that will be made by the SG govt...

Yeah, I think some offices will be impacetd by the new WFH behaviour being encouraged in these times.

Observe closely as many reports as you can during this earnings season, bro,... some positive egs :-
1) PLife REIT will be setting aside 1.7Mil in case this fund is needed to help tenants during these times. For the most recent reporting yesterday morning, 850K has been 'held back', BUT its dpu payout increased nevertheless compared to the previous corresponding period.
2) Keppel DC REIT's business update did not mention of any amt being held back.
3) Keppel Infra Trust's business update remains steady and the same dpu payout of 0.93c is given out.
4) Keppel Pacific Oak may have some small provisions reported next quarter, but the amt will be small,...

Without doubt, the environment today remains very fluid and things can change very quickly, but we still need to invest. I will bank on our years of studying and exposure to the mkt to be able to help us in these trying times today.

My total portfolio position is +14.99% at close today.
*
Thanks for the insights

I plan to DCA slowly every week. But timing on dips everyday is exhausting. Now with the MCO extension (hopefully the last) I think potential rebound in KLCI. However with SG government handling the covid issue, I think as you said: doesn't gives retail investor enough confidence to rebound in short time

What is the time frame you looking for? Not just reits.

May I know whats the ratio of your portfolio , like 60% stocks 40% options?



GloryKnight
post Apr 24 2020, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 23 2020, 07:08 PM)
Mapletree Logistics Trust's recent quarter results has just been released. Very good results,... no provision has been held back,.....

Have a look, bro,....
*
Temasek actually sold portion if its holdings in MLT. Perhaps they are being cautious about the logistics side of things and storage.
sriracha48
post Apr 24 2020, 03:07 PM

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Curious to know what is the ratio of your portfolio and how you intend to ride out the future. Please share if you can! Much appreciated
icemanfx
post Apr 24 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(sriracha48 @ Apr 24 2020, 03:07 PM)
Curious to know what is the ratio of your portfolio and how you intend to ride out the future. Please share if you can! Much appreciated
*
Everyone risks appetite and perspective is different, could range from 0% to 100% in stocks, bonds, MYR, USD, RMB, jpy, Euro, gold, BTC, masterpieces, poorperly, diamonds, Parmigiano Reggiano, etc.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 24 2020, 03:27 PM
Cubalagi
post Apr 25 2020, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 22 2020, 11:35 AM)
By soon, I meant in the next 6 - 12 months. If we are still like this after 12 months, then we are most likely in a depression.
6-12 months from now to start investing.

For me, most likely, by 6 months done.. 😆
Hansel
post Apr 25 2020, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Apr 24 2020, 12:58 AM)
Thanks for summary. No need to go and individually dig the info. now.  BTW, do you think Singapore REITS (non shopping mall reits) will do better/worse than S&P and QQQ indices?
*
QUOTE(VincentCS @ Apr 24 2020, 11:27 AM)
Thanks for the insights

I plan to DCA slowly every week. But timing on dips everyday is exhausting. Now with the MCO extension (hopefully the last) I think potential rebound in KLCI. However with SG government handling the covid issue, I think as you said: doesn't gives retail investor enough confidence to rebound in short time

What is the time frame you looking for? Not just reits.

May I know whats the ratio of your portfolio , like 60% stocks 40% options?
*
QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 24 2020, 11:45 AM)
Temasek actually sold portion if its holdings in MLT. Perhaps they are being cautious about the logistics side of things and storage.
*
Ok bros,...

If we include potential divvy payouts into our measurement, then I would think the SG non-retail REITs will do better then the S&P Index. The think abt the SG retail EITs is not so much as not being able to bounce back (which I still carry the belief that they will bounce back), but the problem is with the Temporary Measures, the tenants do not have to pay rental for 6 months and are obligated to pay ALL 6 months after that.

If the pandemic situation does not improve after 6 mths, the SG govt may extend this Temporary Measures for another 6 mths up to one year. I really can't see how a tenant is able to pay accumulated rent after one year. The security deposit will not be able to cover much.

Chances are as good as zero dpu payout for retail REITs this year because this pandemic is the main reason affecting their business.

For the financial assets segment of my investments, I hold mostly REITs and stocks, bros,...

Timeframe-wise,.. I see everywhere,... people are mentioning 6 mths to one year for recovery.

I continue to scour the landscape to invest into REITs and stocks that can continue to pay out divdiends to us,... in sectors that will not be impacted badly. I continue to carry the belief that I can be paid to wait for the recovery.

REITs will give me capital gain too as the economic ecosystem continues to improve, and as I wait fro more capital gain, I will be able to reap dividends along the way. Of course, I must have the analytical skills, the experience and the wisdom to choose the right REITs.
abcn1n
post Apr 26 2020, 01:38 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 25 2020, 11:01 PM)
Ok bros,...

If we include potential divvy payouts into our measurement, then I would think the SG non-retail REITs will do better then the S&P Index. The think abt the SG retail EITs is not so much as not being able to bounce back (which I still carry the belief that they will bounce back), but the problem is with the Temporary Measures, the tenants do not have to pay rental for 6 months and are obligated to pay ALL 6 months after that.

If the pandemic situation does not improve after 6 mths, the SG govt may extend this Temporary Measures for another 6 mths up to one year. I really can't see how a tenant is able to pay accumulated rent after one year. The security deposit will not be able to cover much.

Chances are as good as zero dpu payout for retail REITs this year because this pandemic is the main reason affecting their business.

For the financial assets segment of my investments, I hold mostly REITs and stocks, bros,...

Timeframe-wise,.. I see everywhere,... people are mentioning 6 mths to one year for recovery.

I continue to scour the landscape to invest into REITs and stocks that can continue to pay out divdiends to us,... in sectors that will not be impacted badly. I continue to carry the belief that I can be paid to wait for the recovery.

REITs will give me capital gain too as the economic ecosystem continues to improve, and as I wait fro more capital gain, I will be able to reap dividends along the way. Of course, I must have the analytical skills, the experience and the wisdom to choose the right REITs.
*
Thanks. Was wondering whether to do any averaging down for the Sg reits as worried whether it will go bust and/or the price currently will be the new normal. After reading your view, I guess I will do at least 1 averaging down if price drop to a desirable level.
Hansel
post Apr 26 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Apr 26 2020, 01:38 AM)
Thanks. Was wondering whether to do any averaging down for the Sg reits as worried whether it will go bust and/or the price currently will be the new normal. After reading your view, I guess I will do at least 1 averaging down  if price drop to a desirable level.
*
Choose your REITs carefully, bro,... Chances for a REIT to go bust today will be lower !

Worst that can happen is it stays where it is and not being able to give out dividends for the next one year or more. Or,... the REIT will do an equity fund raising.
TSplumberly
post Apr 26 2020, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 25 2020, 05:32 PM)
6-12 months from now to start investing.

For me, most likely, by 6 months done.. 😆
*
Let me know when you see the green light at the end of this tunnel! Ha.
abcn1n
post Apr 26 2020, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 26 2020, 03:37 PM)
Choose your REITs carefully, bro,... Chances for a REIT to go bust today will be lower !

Worst that can happen is it stays where it is and not being able to give out dividends for the next one year or more. Or,... the REIT will do an equity fund raising.
*
Thanks. My choice of reits are quite ok I think. The one that is more worrying is Mapletree NAC. I was thinking that it may rise near Olympics and when HK more settled (due to riots), that's why still holding on to it.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Apr 26 2020, 03:59 PM
Hansel
post Apr 26 2020, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Apr 26 2020, 03:58 PM)
Thanks. My choice of reits are quite ok I think. The one that is more worrying is Mapletree NAC. I was thinking that it may rise  near Olympics and when HK more settled (due to riots), that's why still holding on to it.
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Cubalagi
post Apr 26 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 26 2020, 03:56 PM)
Let me know when you see the green light at the end of this tunnel! Ha.
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By the time the green light comes, prices would have run up already. And by then, chances are you be looking at the next crisis coming.. 😆
TSplumberly
post Apr 26 2020, 08:19 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 26 2020, 04:40 PM)
By the time the green light comes, prices would have run up already. And by then, chances are you be looking at the next crisis coming.. 😆
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Yes, like I said before, I don't mind getting in at 10-20% from the bottom. Get in on the confirmed up trend is my target. Then hopefully I will have less worry and can SWAN.

Next crisis so soon? Maybe x years after my purchase.

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