There won't be any convinient signpost of tthe bottom. We may even have seen the bottom in March.

A. I think and I hope that bottom is not THE bottom. Lots of Youtube videos on current market SP500 analysis. Saw one this morning about the current increase from the bottom. Now going sideway, like a spring coiling up to either spring up or spring down. Will know next week on the direction. Recent volume was small, indicating weak strength in the current up trend.

B. On the +10 +20% from the bottom, I was referring to the stocks I want to buy, not the indices +10 +20%.

Like peak, bottom is only known after it is over.

Yes, that is why I said +10 +20% bottom. I am not aiming for THE bottom. Come to think of it, I did not state that properly. Should state it as +10 +20% AFTER the bottom rather than +10 +20% bottom. Thanks.

I think it's more of whether an investor is KEEN on investing or not. Whether is necessary for one to invest for income in the long run or not,...

If the 'need' is there, and not just a want, I think an investor will try the moment 'signs start to appear', regardless of how future events may turn out.

This need may be for additional income, or necessary income for survival, or to set a track record for himself (and his co-investors if he 'helps' others to invest) or even for a reason as simple as to blog for the world to see.

Added : I have been catching falling knives too. I even had to top-up two margin calls recently,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Apr 27 2020, 09:56 AM

it is difficult to evaluate the line in bold.

the current situation does not permit with ease in being right about which stocks will give u an income, cap gain or dividends, with high probability.

becos the fallout is just being felt now, the full aftermath is not here yet, may take a couple years.

in addition, the words "long run"... 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years?

tough for everyone....

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 27 2020, 10:13 AM

Agreed, bro,...there will be risks, as in everything,.... we just have to invest with money we can afford to lose,... or use the best of our experiences and knowledge gained over the years of investing to eek out whatever we can from the mkts.

REported today :-

SINGAPORE (Apr 26): Twenty members of the Port Authorities Roundtable (PAR) from Asia, Europe, Middle East, and North America came together on Friday to declare their commitment to keep their ports remaining open during the Covid-19 outbreak.

According to a press release by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Friday, the Singapore-initiated declaration calls for maritime countries – running major ports such as Abu Dhabi, Antwerp, Tokyo, Guangzhou, Busan, Barcelona, Bangkok, Los Angeles, Rotterdam, and Shanghai – to collaborate and share best practices so that port operations can remain undisrupted.

Through this declaration, the countries commit to ensure that merchant ships can continue to berth at their respective ports and keep the global supply chain going. They will also share experiences in combating Covid-19, amongst other terms.

Quah Ley Hoon, CEO of the MPA says that it is important to keep Singapore’s ports open and goods moving. “Port authorities have to take enhanced precautions for their ports and on ships, as well as manage the stress faced by our seafarers and maritime personnel,” she says.

“We have come together to make a declaration of our commitment, exchange experiences and share best practices. This virtual declaration by members countries across different geographical regions is also a first for the PAR”, she says.

“We came out of the session gaining more valuable knowledge to ensure that necessities and essential medical supplies continue to be transported seamlessly across the world and into our respective countries,” she adds.

Singapore, ranked as the world’s second-busiest container port, after Shanghai, is a key node in the global supply chain. Singapore’s trade volume is more than three times its GDP.

but market is up more than 20% from bottom already, or you looking for another bottom haha

never ending wor like that

Expecting and hoping for another bottom.

Something does not feel right with this climb after the dip. Maybe due to Feb's trillions. Dont fight the Feb? My layman's view is, even the giant can fall one day. Soon or 50-100 years later. Ha.

If Feb is really that all powerful and great, then the dip should not have happened in the first place. They sensed something was not right months before the crash (don't think they sensed covid but global economic health) and reduced the rate. They are still human.

My 2.8 cents.

The market was reacting to the virus and immediate impact. What fed and central banks have done so far is temporary relief.

What is happening to businesses in China now could happen here or anywhere else later. Believe the market has yet to take that in consideration. Similarly when China was lockdown.

This economic recession is bigger than any government or central bank include fed could handle alone, will need multilingual concerted remedy, which is unlikely unless DT is not re-elected.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 27 2020, 05:38 PM

Stock Market ≠ Economy

So I think you're right to feel something's not right. Me too in fact, also think that the rebounce is because of the stimulus and overall sentiment. I can't speak for everyone, but the people I knew as naive as they can be sometimes, think that the worse is pasts us. They probably thought it's the virus, and not the overall impact it had on economy.

Honestly, the real answer I think is : No one knows for sure what will happen.

The secret is if the sentiment can hold-up till the actual recovery comes,...

After years of human history in investments,... the mkt has become highly forward-looking today !

It is because of Fed that acted aggressively and swiftly this time round, with enormous amount of QE (unlimited actually) and US helicopter money 2 trillions.
If added up the 2, it could easily 20~30% of US GDP. Imagine 20~30% GDP money being printed and being thrown into the market in just a month time.

Unlike in 2008, that many still in dark what was going on and in the midst to find solution and little known what was QE. This round, everyone knows QE has a effect, and market knows the aftermath of QE effect, hence market needs to act more "forwards" looking mechanism so that won't be left out.

Some stocks are actually not quite "cheap" but investors have no reason to dispose it unless due to force selling etc, hence little seller, with just a little more buyers, stocks already can up up up or hold up.

Whether it holds up or not, largely depended outcome in near term. If there is second round of recurrence of pandemic or worst than expected corporate issues, then we may see another round of roller coaster.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 28 2020, 09:08 AM

One thing for sure, looks like deflation is rearing its head.
Negative treasury yields. Now negative oil futures.
Everything is pissing air out of its highly inflated insides

Negative oil futures is about speculation that went fail or the buyer of futures can't take the delivery hence needs to "force sell" when near settlement.

The money pumped doesn't 100% go into the real economy, and lot of them ended up in financial market instead.
That's why some people complained why real economy is facing difficulty time, while stock or investment market keep on going up.

Deflation is when supply outstrips demand. There is a lot of oil stocks presently.
The futures was negative fir that reason. And don't be surprise to see another negative come up again. Storage is running out very fast

The decade old of oil is running out myth is debunked totally, remembered 12 years ago when people said oil is running out, that sent price to USD120.

It doesn't make sense for physical delivery seller to sell at negative price, USD 10 or USD5, yes may be due to oversupply, but not negative -37.
The oil futures is still in contango situation.

Yeah

Peak oil theory. Till they used shale oil.
Well, basically the oil producers cannot store the oil any longer.

Good thinking, I'm with you on this - getting in on the confirmed up trend