Did stocks doubled in the last 4 years? That's 18% pa CAGR. I think that figure for stocks is inadequate for the last blow off leg.
Maybe a 30% CAGR for 3 years for stocks may be more appropriate since its a financial note unlike property.

Another -2000 points tonight

If this drags on for some time, people will lose their jobs and this will cause social unrest, especially in the capitalists countries.
Already Australians are feeling the pinch.

WoW!

The index compnents were different then Plus many of these companies have grown leaps and bounds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-wi...t-it-2020-04-09

No Fed or Gov in their right mind will want fix a debt problem. It will mean reset.

So the rational thing is to KICK THE POVERBIAL CRSIS CAN DOWN THE POVERBIAL ROAD!

I sold

In March at downturn

50% of EC World
100% of Sasseur
50% of IREIT

held Accordia
AIMS
Cromwell OUCH! Too slow

BOught back IREIT
EC world

Bought Ascendas
Lippo

Sold Lippo

One thing for sure, looks like deflation is rearing its head.
Negative treasury yields. Now negative oil futures.
Everything is pissing air out of its highly inflated insides

Deflation is when supply outstrips demand. There is a lot of oil stocks presently.
The futures was negative fir that reason. And don't be surprise to see another negative come up again. Storage is running out very fast

Yeah

Peak oil theory. Till they used shale oil.
Well, basically the oil producers cannot store the oil any longer.

What IF the Biggie does not come?

OR How long are you going to wait for this event? What are your triggers in the event the correction does not come?

But Fed will QE to infinity. So says Powell

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-c...-213347357.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called on Congress to provide further support to households and businesses as the COVID-19 shutdown continues to grip the U.S. economy.

“This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can do to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible,” Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday.

That's me. Since 2002.

Paper gold is manipulated gold price. The short side play on gold is just criminal. Now that the mines and mints are closed due to Covid19, there is a bad shortage. Physical holds a 15 to 20% premium presently.

Cheerio.

BURIED.

A. In 1999. i was reading about how banks were using cheap money and basically leveraging about 10 times on the deposits to create loans through the fractional accounting system. How CBs are just lining up banks with easy money. Which they are. Like now.
So after 3 years of research, i took the plunge.
My preaching line to my friends was "The returns will be better than FDs over the next 5 years"
Gold in MYR was 1100 at the time. So essentially its a hedge for my savings, not really an investment.

B. Since gold savings has become a substantial portion of my total asset, i have taken profits along the way and also bought more.
So i have traded a certain portion of the gold holdings in paper. BAD ME!
But as i look at the charts, i noticed a pattern forming like that of the early years for me.

In2008, when there was QE, gold price retraced from 900 to 680 and then zoomed to 1900 in 2011. That time QE was only $900 billion to $4.5 trillion in the books of the FED.
Today, its much more that that.

i also noticed that the so called cup and handle pattern which formed in 2008 to 2010 is also noticed in 2011 to present day. See the cup pattern forming there, the bottom being 1050. If we see gold dropped to 1600 to 1650 to form the handle, i will take another major position.
This cup and handle pattern is supposedly a very powerful pattern to catapult the price to 3000.
In 2008, it went from 680 to 1900. Will we see it going from 1050 to 3000?
We will see.

Gold is not a commodity. To me, its a hedge against incessant money printing, which happened in 2008 and happening now.
Therefore, I find it better than FD.

Gold producers is a totally different thing.

Invest in the right one, you will hit jackpot.
Gold producers are like gold derivatives due to its equity characteristics.

For eg, lets say that their profit is $100 p oz sold and its P/E is 15 and gold price is $1000 and share price is $15

If gold goes to $1100, its profit goes up to $200 p oz sold. Suddenly share price may rise to $30 , all things being equal.

So there is a tremendous leverage on price of gold.

Presently, its very good for producers with price of oil down at the basement as fuel costs is a very expense component of most mines.
Unless they are heavily hedged on higher oil prices!

Gold price does not move in tandem with QE. I have already shown that in the last QE in 2008, it deflated with the rest of assets. and only took off from 680 to 1900 in 2009.

That's the reason why its said in 1900, an oz bought a 2 piece suit. In 2019, it still does.

Yeah. Gold helped me to steady my portfolio recently due to the rout in equities.



Yeah......gold is also a hedge for MYR vs USD. Gold is at its highest ever in MYR terms.

Lets hope they behave the same way!

In 2009, it went from 680 to 1900. QE = 4.5T

2020, QE = 20T? 1600 to ?