Plan to clear most of my stocks in the next few months before the coming crash. Did some analysis to help in my decision making later.

Appreciate feedback on things I over looked etc in my analysis.

Assume 4-6% pa growth and 20-30% drop in price during the crash, it will take 3-4 yrs for the price to recover.

Instead of wasting the 3-4 years for the price to recover, won't it be better if I sell out before the crash, put that money in FD etc. That is, a positive net gain during the 3-4 years.

I know this is too idealistic but what have I done wrong?

Yes, I do not have a crystal ball to know when it will crash. But a crash WILL happen. Just a matter of time.

Appreciate a constructive feedback/discussion. Thanks.

P/S I think I put this in the wrong place. Should be in the discussion section. Can someone help me to transfer it? Or tell me how to? Thanks.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 23 2018, 10:21 AM

I see. You run faster than me. Ha.

The transfer of money back into Msia was trouble and tax free?

Thanks.

No one can predict the exact day or even month for the crash. But bad signs are there now. If not for the QE, crash would be here much earlier.

I got out 1-2 years before the crash in 2007. Though I could have made a bit more if I didnt get out that early, no regret for my decision.

Noted and thanks.

More like a scared rookie investor lah. Ha.

Global crash affecting 99% of the industries & countries.

Good question but hard to answer.


I do not mean to be rude here. Prefer to stick to what I have asked at the start of this thread. If you wish to find out more on your subject, please start another thread. No offence intended. Thanks.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 23 2018, 11:25 AM

Thanks.

The question on delayed crash did cross my mind before. Said to myself, willing to take that risk as long as I have considered and done a proper evaluation. Thus airing it here for comments.

Rightly or wrongly, I prefer to see a lower growth or even a flat growth than a negative growth in my investment. Thus the above get out early strategy. Ha.

The stock is in the average category, one of the oil & gas companies. My early plan was to hand on to it and use it in my retirement when the price should go even higher due to the shortage of oil and gas in 30-50 years time.

But ....

EU has now a policy to stop production of fossil vehicles by 2040, China has the same idea but no time frame yet. Even one of the 7 oil sisters has started in the EV charging business instead of just petrol stations. Growing demand for EV now. AirBus has already started work on using battery for their planes, for short distances.

Yes, even with EV, these 7 sisters will not completely go extinct as their businesses are not 100% on transportation fuel. But it will hurt their businesses.

So ...

With the coming crash and the bleaker business future for the company, there is natural tendency (flaw?) for my mind to suggest to dump the shares now, 2 birds with one stone, figuratively speaking.



Thanks.

See above.

Not trying to time it exactly. Get out when there are enough bad signs and get in when there are confirmed recovery signs. Can be a few months or years gaps.

Saw one very good graph on how the stock-economy-property cycles interact, with stock leading then economy and then property. Cannot find it now. But the one below is similar.

I bet my bottom dollar that in the coming crash, the real estate bubble will burst, or at least leak! Ha.

Noted and thanks.

Thanks.

Remind me of reading another article on my mobile the other day which I hope to re-read again later. But cannot find it now. About Cardiff indicator which has signaled the past recession rather well once the readings were above 200. If you know where to get that article, please drop a line here. I think most likely I did not get the name right, Cardiff.

Thanks.

Yes, hoping to get some PB or MB during crash. But dont think there will be many sellers then.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 23 2018, 04:47 PM

Thanks.

Any money back guarantee? Ha.

Crash will come, only a matter of timing.

Concur with you on 2 counts (maybe we have been reading or watching the same contents on the net? Ha.)

AA
Last 5th Elliot wave step to come before the crash.

BB
One study suggested mid 2019 - mid 2020 for the crash (cant recall the exact months now).

Dont get me wrong, I am not trying to time the crash down to the day/week/month. If you know a storm is coming, it is better to plan ahead.

Cheerio.

My 2 cents ...

My personal view is, it is just not the right timing for a beginner to try the stock market near the end of the cycle when most companies are overvalued. The good sifus here can still make money regardless of the market.

Park your money in a safer place (like FD, ASX etc) first.

After the crash, then use the money to get some fair companies at wonderful prices. Study some companies now and get them when the prices are right after the crash.

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 29 2018, 10:48 AM

First, my apology to those who feel I am over doing this.

The amount is a quite a big amount (to me). I prefer to think this through and then make a decision. Even if later it did not turn out the way I wanted, at least I have done an analysis and I will live with my decision.

Thinking aloud on the 4 stages, what are the positive and negatives possible outcomes as summarised in the table.

Appreciate your view, additions, etc. Thanks.

P/S No, I will not be buying that shares after the crash even if the price is low. As I said earlier, the future for that industry will be challenging due to the move to electric vehicles.

No feedback/comment on my overview? Tolong lah.

Updated one as below. As of now, tempted with 70% probability to sell 90-95% of the shares, keeping some for sentimental reason. Ha.

Noted and thanks.

If I sell, it will be a big deviation from my original retirement plan. To minimise me overlooking important factors and thus making the wrong decision, I then asked here for inputs for me to consider as there are many friends here more knowledgeable on the subject than me.

I do not know what I do not know. So ...

Eg I was planning to get 2 new tyres and put them on the front. More tear and wear on the front tyres. So the better ones should be at the front. Learnt from a friend that new tyres should be at the rear. Why? Easier for the car to go into hydroplaning at the rear if the new ones are at the front. Best to watch this video. Put new tyres at the rear to maximise control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa9hzcjdi5Q

Sorry for the off topic here.

Thanks.

If you happened to find the article, please share with me. Interested to have a read.

I think I read something similar in Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by VK Tharp. What I got from that book is, determine what is the price to buy AND what is the price to sell BEFORE you buy! Ha.

Cheerio.

They say Sept is the worst performing month in the global stock market. Please don't take that as the bible truth. Ha. I wonder how many of the past recessions started in Sept.

Not trying to add fuel to the recession is coming fire, ok? Ha.

I am now P90 in selling my shares. Question now is when?

Plan is to monitor the shares:
* sales
* debt
* cash flow
* revenue
* dividend
* intrinsic value
* etc

and sell if one of the above goes out of the norm (on the negative side).

If the above are all OK, then sell when the price drops by more than -2 * std deviation (40 days).

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Sep 6 2018, 04:09 PM

Ha ha.

Got something in mind. Let me prepare some graphs for sharing later on why I prefer to get out before the crash.

Yes, too many to keep my eyes on. Only on dividends and price at the moment.

Got the -2*SD graphs in place now. Waiting for the day to jump out! Ha.

Please don't come back and lecture me that no one can time the market. I am not trying to time the market. Just want to know when there are strong signs that the company is not doing well and better get out then.

Cheerio.

You are breaking my no 1 rule, do not blindly follow others. Ha.

Instead of using Excel to do the 2SD monitoring, can use Bollinger chart in most stock software. Don't use one indicator in your decision making. Use at least 2 independent indicators.

Eg
* the sun rises
* now it is bright
then the 2 criteria are met! Not really, one follows the other.

Same with price indicators. So beware!

Cheerio.

I know what you mean. Good to have some people in the same line of looking ahead. Ha.

Mind sharing which construction companies you have and are not doing well due to ECRL or HSR? PM me the name. Curious to know.

If now it is not doing well, with recession, it will do even worse. Like I have said many times, I do not mean to add fuel to the fire (tiny little smoke at the moment?). Ha.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Oct 2 2018, 07:47 PM

For the ones most likely to suffer a big drop (say >40%), selling them early will generate a bigger cash bucket for later use.

Some may recover later but why waste the x years for it just to break even?