Plan to clear most of my stocks in the next few months before the coming crash. Did some analysis to help in my decision making later.

Appreciate feedback on things I over looked etc in my analysis.

Assume 4-6% pa growth and 20-30% drop in price during the crash, it will take 3-4 yrs for the price to recover.

Instead of wasting the 3-4 years for the price to recover, won't it be better if I sell out before the crash, put that money in FD etc. That is, a positive net gain during the 3-4 years.

I know this is too idealistic but what have I done wrong?

Yes, I do not have a crystal ball to know when it will crash. But a crash WILL happen. Just a matter of time.

Appreciate a constructive feedback/discussion. Thanks.

P/S I think I put this in the wrong place. Should be in the discussion section. Can someone help me to transfer it? Or tell me how to? Thanks.

Noted and thanks.
Thanks.

Remind me of reading another article on my mobile the other day which I hope to re-read again later. But cannot find it now. About Cardiff indicator which has signaled the past recession rather well once the readings were above 200. If you know where to get that article, please drop a line here. I think most likely I did not get the name right, Cardiff.
Thanks.

Yes, hoping to get some PB or MB during crash. But dont think there will be many sellers then.

If enough investors think as you do, thats when we will have a crash.

even technical analysis chart works along self-fulfilling prophecy  too 

Valuation wise the only stocks I see on stretch is US tech stocks.

Malaysia Market due to its cut back of project and average price of Crude oil, most people still has slightly bearish view on Malaysian stocks.

10 year treasury yield still have safe margin above Fed rate.

Honestly speaking I still think the unprecedented amount of QE since 09' to 13' still havent 100% fully reflect in stock market. The only one truly already reflected is in property market such as Hong kong and Sydney , Vancouver etc ( I know how crazy is the price went up especially these few places ).

For me I am betting there is one more bull coming (the most crazy bull run ever)....but with bearish view with a lot of trade war issue it probably takes another 1 -2 years before it comes.

Just my view la

PS: I am still holding 85% stocks now in personal porfolio 15% cash ( cash that for stocks investment exclude other purpose).

so what is your opinion then? are we already entering bear phase? beginning of the crash? late bull market? or etc???

just want hear more opinion. No right or wrong.

so what is your opinion then? are we already entering bear phase? beginning of the crash? late bull market? or etc???

just want hear more opinion. No right or wrong.

I believe US share market would crash if Donald Trump is impeached.

Its not really a remark on Donald Trump.

I believe any US president getting impeach will crash the stock market.

plumberly, you might want to rethink your plan as long as bro iceman thinks stock market will crash....

You may miss out on the continued bull run...

I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year 

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side 

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...

No feedback/comment on my overview? Tolong lah.

Updated one as below. As of now, tempted with 70% probability to sell 90-95% of the shares, keeping some for sentimental reason. Ha.
[attachmentid=10003220]

Noted and thanks. 

If I sell, it will be a big deviation from my original retirement plan. To minimise me overlooking important factors and thus making the wrong decision, I then asked here for inputs for me to consider as there are many friends here more knowledgeable on the subject than me.

I do not know what I do not know. So ...

Eg I was planning to get 2 new tyres and put them on the front. More tear and wear on the front tyres. So the better ones should be at the front. Learnt from a friend that new tyres should be at the rear. Why? Easier for the car to go into hydroplaning at the rear if the new ones are at the front. Best to watch this video. Put new tyres at the rear to maximise control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa9hzcjdi5Q

Sorry for the off topic here. 

Truth is nobody knows, those who believe this is just a correction would have collected yesterday and tell you to do the same in hope that price can be pushed higher, those who believe a major crash is coming would tell you to save your bullets in hope that price can drop further for them to collect at a bargain

no idea... but I am rally tired of this. Crash just crash la...

Still remember Last FEB? Almost same and rebound.

Just hope this time around dead cat bounce and the true correction can go on for Q4.

Good thread here,....

To reply to Iceman in the above question,...

1) Fed rates have moved higher.
2) Trump Tariffs onto China have become more more.

Opinions ??

The bonus loss there is secondary to the main aim of avoid the big dip due to recession.

Not looking at the day to day trading here but looking from a distance at the stormy weather now for the coming HURRICANE/CYCLONE/TYPHOON/PERFECT STORM/xxx. Ha.

The best way to ascertain this is to define : what constitutes a CRASH ?

If an index drops 20% from a recent high - this constitutes a CORRECTION.

So, what is a crash ?

Thought I got the % all mixed up, thought 10% = correction, >20% = crash. So looked up the web to refresh my memory. See below.

[attachmentid=10118022]

One China's index is already in recession region. More to follow?

Better start clearing.
Global recession and trade war.
The person controlling is dumb clown .everyday waging war to maga only.

Results all not good also.