A few pts on top of your good pts :-

1) C Wood was right during pandemic, but not post-pandemic when tech crashed.
2) The portf mgr could be right in a rapidly rising i/r environment this year,... but when i/r's are held at a steadily high rate,... the environment has changed. He may not continue to be right.
3) What makes you think it will be stagnant in 2023 ?

Look at the consensus from many asset allocation managers and CIO which is why stagnant next year

The most bearish of them all Mike Wilson and check out latest Bill Gross insights PimCo founder

The uncertainty because Fed unable to project a solid and certain policy for next year unlike BoJ last night already hinted a 2023 hike policy once Kuroda steps down

Ok.

I was also thinking like you said in your second para,... Kuroda would be stepping down by Mar 31st next year,.. probably the next BOJ Governor will hike the ineterst rate.

We won’t know whose is their replacement but definitely one thing for sure the next Governor will have to be very proactive in order to help Japanese fund their new defence policy for sure hence I believe the Japanese will do US treasuries swapped for their weapons and warships deal

How will Treasury swaps affect Jap interest rates,...

Whether will they hike very aggressively or gradually

Seems like it is time to long yen now 👏

'I also know',....

AUD or USD pair this time?

Hi,

Im generally still defensive for 2023 with a higher than normal cash buffer, but I have 3 bets going for 2023:

1. Interest rate is going to peak soon or has already peaked, disinflation accelerates and followed by recession and interest rate cuts by developed markets in the 2nd half.

2. China HK market rebound continues (but not expecting it to reach early 2021 levels) but then will reverse as global economic slowdown bites.

3. Oil suprise to the upside due to supply side issues.

Hopefully at least 2 materialize 😓

Wait for reflation, Covid and low demand due to global warming to hit your bets

Deflation won’t be so soon as when the Fed cuts demand will skyrocket as ppl has been preserving since last year

China rebound will not happen as Xi cemented power with Common Prosperity, top down approach and SOE to dictate the economy pace and policy 🤦‍♀️

Oil will not skyrocket as there is an oversupply now due to warmer weather and if some sort of travel ban is upcoming soon expect a double whammy on it

if interest has peaked, but remain unchanged for a period of time is no good too



This post has been edited by square2: Jan 3 2023, 05:10 PM

Remain unchanged means we are heading to growth cycle instead 🤦‍♀️

Fed use rates to temper the demand and supply of economy hence it remains means we are heading a growth cycle and everyone wealth is actually increasing

Hence why you need to look for staples, utilities and defensive to buy when growth and sell when downturn is over 👏

US is already on 4.25% to 4.50% rate, and is expecting to peak at 5-6%

5-6% is too much to handle for malaysians

Not good enough for equities, but for bonds it will be good.

yes. but that doesn't constitute to growth cycle. who wanna do business in a high rate environment?

Did I say anything about growth cycle?

i didn't mention you. i was referring to the guy above