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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Hansel
post Oct 17 2018, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 12 2018, 11:51 PM)
What fundamental has changed since 1, 3 or 12 months ago?
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Good thread here,....

To reply to Iceman in the above question,...

1) Fed rates have moved higher.
2) Trump Tariffs onto China have become more more.

Opinions ??
Hansel
post Oct 27 2018, 08:55 AM

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I'll ride it out with my current stock and REIT holdings. But I have stopped buying since last month, except for the Astrea IV PE Bond Funds.
Hansel
post Oct 29 2018, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 29 2018, 12:57 PM)
You can ride it out if you buy low enough. Provide you some comfort level when stocks are falling as you are still in the green.

Ride it out as you continue to earn dividends regardless of the market. Dividend reduced but you still get paid.

That's my understanding of what he meant.
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Well,... from my actions in the above, I would have destroyed my profits too,... Yeah, I would still be in the green,... but lots of "green $$$' has been wiped out by the mkt meltdown. If I had sold earlier, I would have reaped more profits,... ie, would have run away with more profits before the stock prices dropped.

Yeah, the consolation is in the continuous dividend received (provided it is not stopped).

And if we have selected good companies to ride over with, then the dpu slump, if any,... would be minimal only.
Hansel
post Oct 29 2018, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 29 2018, 12:31 PM)
For my learning, why ride it out strategy?

Not that cyclic, will drop by only x%, takes only y years to recover, hard to get in later, losses too small, extra expenses in selling and buying, etc etc?

Thanks.
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Hi bro,

Many thoughts have run through my mind when this meltdown started, and what I should do to prepare for this. The best reasons I could give for my choice of approach would be :-

1) I don't need the money, hence, I can still afford to eave them 'inside', ie invested.

2) I love the cashflow, which would supply me more bullets to take advantage of the dipped prices later.

3) I continue to believe in my counters.

Having 'declared' the above, I have to say too that I have decided to divest Keppel Corporation for now, at a profit.... The yield given by KepCorp against my Buy Price is too low, and I think the dps will drop in the coming year, FY19....

Hence, I have taken profit for Keppel Corp..
Hansel
post Oct 29 2018, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 29 2018, 03:29 PM)
Thanks. See below.
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 29 2018, 04:00 PM)
I will share some
*** I also don't need that money but I do not want to see the value dropping by half like it happened in 2008 recession. So prefer to take it out to and park it in FD etc though the return will be lower. Growing at a slower rate is preferred than loosing half its value.
A: I welcome correction as it allows me to pick good stocks at good price. That's why I kena bash in FSM thread as I was celebrating the recent down time. If you cannot tahan seeing the value dropping,  have to go for super save investment
1) FD (totally no)
2) ASNB FP
3) EPF
With this 3,  you won't get heartsick no matter what happen to the market. Sometimes not getting heart sick is better. Take your time to keep cash and equivalent when things are expensive. Don't get FOMO.

Losing half it's value and not selling won't incur anything. Only if you use margin or someone force you to sell then yeah you have lock in your losses. An investor is his worst enemy.

*** I assume you meant the dividends from that shares. But won't the dividend be less during recession? Double jeopardy - reduced share price and reduced dividend?
*** If you sell before the crash, won't you have more bullets for your safari hunting after the crash?  Ya ya, only if the crash happens!
A: Dividends may/may not drop depending on recession. Why do I say that? Solid companies like NestlĂ©,  TnB won't go away in a recession. Rain or shine, people still need to eat, use electricity. That's defensive investing. If a company is only paying out <50% of the cash,  dividends are more ear less assured. Just won't grow. Price drop allows me to accumulate more shares at cheap price to get more dividends.

You won't know when crash will come. You can only prepare for it by keeping cash and buying at low price. So if a crash comes along, you are prepared with cash. If you had FOMO and give chase,  then you can only seat and watch sadly. Having a boatload of cash can be a good thing in times of crash (remember I am not saying bucketliad but boatload)  That's why I keep cash when there's nothing to buy. So what kena eat by inflation? Inflation is slower than what I can pick up in a crash.

*** You must have done a lot of homework in that shares to have such faith in them! Ha. But companies are like any other things, they can change, some for the better and some for the worse.
A: you need to analyse your companies and make sure they can continue paying you.

Moral of my story
1. Keep cash when market is expensive. Don't FOMO. Is worth keeping cars.
2. Don't be afraid of crash. Welcome with open arms. S
3. Invest in good companies with payout of say 40-70% dividends is one criteria.
4. Invest in companies with increasing DPU
5. Invest in companies which manage to profit during 2008-2009. For those companies are more or less survivors
6. Invest in defensive companies.
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Further opinions,....

1) "*** I also don't need that money but I do not want to see the value dropping by half like it happened in 2008 recession. So prefer to take it out to and park it in FD etc though the return will be lower. Growing at a slower rate is preferred than loosing half its value."

Well,... if the fundamentals do not change and the counter is able to survive the meltdown / recession, it will regain its glory and go back up to its previous high again, or perhaps even higher. In the meantime, I will just continue to earn the dividend, and yeah, I may need to tolerate some dips in the dividend too. But if my holdings are large enough and my Average Price is low enough, the yield would be high enough to withstand any dpu reduction. The amount wouldbe big enough for my to build my warchest.

The moment you sell, you lose many of the above characteristics when you try to buyback again in future.


2) "*** I assume you meant the dividends from that shares. But won't the dividend be less during recession? Double jeopardy - reduced share price and reduced dividend?
*** If you sell before the crash, won't you have more bullets for your safari hunting after the crash? Ya ya, only if the crash happens!"

Perhaps,... yeah, may need to tolerate some dpu dips, yeah,..but,.. please see my above explanations above size of holdings and level of Average Price.

3) "*** You must have done a lot of homework in that shares to have such faith in them! Ha. But companies are like any other things, they can change, some for the better and some for the worse."

This is my risk then,... and this is where skils of investing, for eg diversification comes into play.

Finally,... I always believed one should stay invested, but that's me,... So, rain or shine, I will find an instrument to go into throughout the different cycles of the mkt. I will not hold pure cash,....

I regard Foreign Currency FDs and PE Bond Funds as investments too.
Hansel
post Nov 1 2018, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 1 2018, 11:29 AM)
***  It goes down by half, let it recovers after x years. I still cannot understand why is that a good strategy. Get out early and park the money somewhere first. If that company is really good, then get in again on recovery. Maybe it is easy to say but hard to do. I will be doing that soon (minus the buying on recovery). Ha.
*** See my comment above.
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After you sold, you would not be able to collect dividends anymore, but of course, you may say the dividend may be totally wiped-out by the recession. Then here, we have to analyse our holdings carefully, REITs and shares,...

Secondly,... hehe, I have another saying, to time the mkt once is very difficult, but to time it twice ?? You have to be right TWO TIMES if you are to sell now and buyback later. S_Kalan said this too,..... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Nov 4 2018, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 4 2018, 07:31 PM)
I really failed in my communication. Not trying to time it down to the highest and lowest. See modified Scene 3. Added in the bold dash lines to indicate the windows available.

Not looking at the highest & lowest days. The time available to sell and buy were not just weeks window but months. Yes, this time round, it may not be a carbon copy. But I believe the general pattern characteristics will be there.

[attachmentid=10096071]
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Perhaps we have our faults too in reading your earlier posting as in days. Well,.. if you're talking abt narrowing down to mths of timing, your chances of success would :-

1) definitely be higher compared to against trying to time in terms of days and weeks.

2) still be low because the uptrend and downtrend may stretch in terms of many years !!
Hansel
post Nov 21 2018, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 21 2018, 05:44 PM)
Is recent stock rout consider crash?
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The best way to ascertain this is to define : what constitutes a CRASH ?

If an index drops 20% from a recent high - this constitutes a CORRECTION.

So, what is a crash ?
Hansel
post Dec 30 2018, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 22 2018, 08:10 PM)
Percentage dropped in KLCI for the period Aug-23 (when you started this thread) to Dec-7 (2 weeks ago when you sold your shares) is  -7.20%

Let's say a person has a portfolio of RM200,000

If sell earlier on Aug-23 instead of Dec-7, the amount "saved" would be RM14,394

Ie. if sell on Aug-23, the amount "saved" should be enough to buy a Nikon Z6 + a Yamaha digital piano....
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Hi bro,... how are you ?

I have an opinion here to your good calculations above : If the shares we are talking about in the above is, say,.. a REIT that pays every quarter in SG, then the loss percentage will not be -7.20% anymore.

As an eg, from Aug-23 till Dec-7, I would have collected roughly two more rounds of dividend payouts before I disposed the shares, which may,... on average, yield me another 3.5%. Hence, the loss would only be : 7.20% - 3.50% = 3.70%.

It is always beneficial to buy dividend-paying shares,....


Hansel
post Dec 31 2018, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 31 2018, 08:58 AM)
Happy new year bro !

Yes I agree with you. My calculation is just a rough calculation based on KLCI index, a broad indication of how timing of selling in a falling market would affect the returns of one’s investment

For individuals, it all depends on which individual stocks he owns. I am sure there are a few stocks did not drop, or even gain. Like some reits (IGB for example). Put in dividend or bonus issues, the returns may not be as bad

So, each individual portfolio would perform differently, but broadly, KLCI dropped about -7% for the period.

I am more interested how plumberly buy European stocks. Apparently he doesn’t want to share....but it’s ok. Do you have any idea ?
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Tq for the reply, bro and Happy New Year to you too,....

Yes, I understand exactly what you wrote,... and you are right too in your assumptions and in your points.

I have been watching some counters in The SGX, hoping for them to drop more for me to scoop up, but NO, they did not drop, BUT rose gradually instead,... I have to watch everyday,... it is indeed tiring,...

I can, of course, do a 'Good Till Cancelled' queue, but I am keeping my funds inside interest-earning accounts to maximise my passive income. I am not able to earn this interest if these funds are put up as queues awaiting strikes.

Hence, have to watch everyday, and like you said in one of your posts above, if I feel strongly that it is a bottom, I must buy - this is what I practise.

At the same time, I keep reading the news and updating myself with core subscriptions in order not to miss any news,... to detect for any changes in fundamentals towards a ctr that I am watching.
Hansel
post Jan 7 2019, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 4 2019, 09:21 AM)
***** Mind sharing why you sold your shares earlier?

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The ctrs which I have sold-off fully or partially have had a change in their fundamentals at that point in time. I might buy them back though if the fundamentals recovered,...
Hansel
post Jan 13 2019, 11:16 PM

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I am predicting we could be near to the bottom now.
Hansel
post Jan 14 2019, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 14 2019, 11:41 AM)
Just my view which may be totally wrong, if I based it on the volatility chart, don't think we have past the recession tunnel yet.

Maybe on the way to the tunnel.

In 2008, VI went from 21 to 79 in 56 days. That recession was one of the worst. Will the next recession be a mild one or a really bad one?

[attachmentid=10159545]
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Anyone could be wrong, bro,... appreciated your input,...

Being close to the bottom can mean being on either side of the trough, bro,.... could mean currently the mkt is still dropping (like you said here) but turning round soon, or could have rounded the trough and could be on the way up now...

For myself, I'm basing my decision on the events surrounding us now, and a little bit on the technical rdgs seen here and there. I'm watching the SGX.

And I've started to buy last week !

Well,............. Mr Powell is 'turning round',.... this is a very big factor to me !!!!!!!!!
Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 14 2019, 03:17 PM)
I am waiting for Q4 earnings starting this week ! If bad earnings by the banks, sure everyone scared again .
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There will be bad earnings report from Wall Street this week,...we know what happened in December last year,... well,.. to me - I hoped the mkt will be scared this week !!!!!!!

Last chance to buy !!!!!
Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 16 2019, 12:15 AM)
Citi and jP Morgan miss earnings but stocks still rocketing up..
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Looks like the investing world is starting to get smart - not good for people like us !!!!!!!!!!! sad.gif sad.gif mad.gif mad.gif

Edited by adding : Forgot to thank you for updating on the above bank earnings from last night,... please update again on coming earnings this week and the next !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 16 2019, 09:39 AM
Hansel
post Jan 16 2019, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 16 2019, 08:53 AM)
The market is on random walk in the short term.
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Short term, medium term and long term are infinite in the 'truest' sense of the terms. If we are to plan for the 'longest term', thinking that the long term reflects the real values of the mkt, then there is nothing to invest into,...
Hansel
post Jan 17 2019, 06:40 PM

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Because US Feds are more careful today !!!
Hansel
post Jan 17 2019, 06:42 PM

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Guys,... the moment the US Shutdown matter is resolved,... really,... no time to buy anymore. My instincts !!!
Hansel
post Jan 18 2019, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 17 2019, 06:40 PM)
Because US Feds are more careful today !!!
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jan 17 2019, 06:42 PM)
Guys,... the moment the US Shutdown matter is resolved,... really,... no time to buy anymore. My instincts !!!
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Same replies as in the above !!!!!!!
Hansel
post Mar 26 2019, 11:03 AM

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The Feds move quite fast this time. They quickly stopped increasing rates. I believed back in 2008/9,... the interest rate was still high ?

Second comment is I think a recession will only happen this time round if a 'shocking event' takes place, something like what happened to Lehman Bros back in 2008/9.

Third comment would be : the mkt WILL BOUNCE BACK. Just ride it through.

Hence, I intend to continue my mkt activities based on the above concepts.

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