Bagus! Many thanks.

Got this from a friend, a 2 weeks old video. But still good especially for those who want to know where are we now on the curve, bottom, on the way up etc.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW_iwk5e5y4

For me, some countries will always want to dominate/flex their muscles more unfairly than others. Just look at China now wanting to own many parts of the South China Sea. If not for USA and some western countries, they would have bulldozed even further with their intentions. Without a strong presence in both military, currency and economy to counter countries like that, the world becomes more dangerous. When power is much more spread out like having a few currencies as global benchmark or require too much compromise/negotiations between different countries, then it would be harder to counter more dangerous countries/powers. That's why while its always good to have powers like NATO etc, we still also need a more dominant country that can stop these unwanted moves by others without every step having to negotiate with other countries.

USA do abuse its power too but at least less dangerous than some other countries and at least do provide some checks to some countries (not saying that USA does everything right because obviously they don't and they have done their fair share of harm). By having USD as the main currency, it helps to give strength to the USA while at the same time bring stability to the rest of the world.

Take for eg the stock market. While very few if any countries can claim that their stock market is safe to invest, USA is the exception here. If one were to continously invest in the broad USA market (and not individual stocks) through its ups and downs, one still can make $ despite all the money printing--for the main reason that the USD is the main currency and USA is still one of the biggest superpower left with some very good companies. This gives the man on the street a chance to make some $ especially with interest rate worldwide going down. Only the rich can invest in properties but the stock market requires much less $ and thus more accessible to the common man. Japan with its extremely low to non existence interest rate for example have caused its citizens to continue working into their old age (also due to their aging population). Thus, stock market remains one of the very few options left to earn a return higher than inflation rate.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: May 3 2020, 04:17 AM

Emm,... bro,... the biggest advantage of investing into the stock exchange is the ability to pullout quiackly when situations changed. The liquidity is there,... provided the mkt is NOT halted like what The Philippines did a few weeks ago.

If you invest into properties, you can't seasily sell of your property for funds.

And,............. in the world today,... don't know-lar,... I observe landlords everywhere are being targetted. If times are bad, it's not easy to collect collect rents or evict tenants anymore. Countries will formulate laws and temporary measures to PROTECT THE TENANTS rather than the landlords !

So,......... looks like no point buying more properties,... better just buy one big hse to stay in, one holiday house and invest the rest.

More crash is coming ahead.

Enlighten me

Fair points.

To me, US was the good guy many years back and China was the communist state - you live it my way. But now, the good guy is becoming a bad guy while the old bad guy is becoming a more liberal guy. US has so many bases all over the war (to protect the world?) I may be wrong here, don't think China has any military bases outside China.

Cannot remember the name of the guy who revealed the electronic spying they did on other countries and also their own citizens who later fled to Russia. OK when they do that and not ok when others do that.

To me, both have their pros and cons. Sold my house when I could not stand it any more with tenants calling me to fix this and that. I did an analysis comparing the house rental vs FD. Yes, the house return was better. But only slightly. Not worth the headaches I get. Ha. But some more resilient people can make it without much problem in the real estate sector.

Good. Like to have more info. What is the frequency I should tune in? Ha. I feel the same too. If no more dip, then this crash is really weird, very different from the past. But they say, there is always a first for everything.

China has been expanding/building islands/ports to be military/guardposts etc including in South China Sea and its own country. They are also doing the Belt and Road Initiative. Look also what they are doing to countries in Africa continent--for example taking over ports etc by offering loans. While China has become more liberal (in a way they have to as they want the world to accept them and their currency), their really ultimate aim nobody knows for sure. But they have no problem to be more 'brutal/drastic' than the West.

USA has caused harm for sure. I've never thought that USA is the knight in shining armor as it has its own faults. But between countries such as China, Russia and some other countries that I will not name, I still prefer USA dominance as they are 'kinder' and because of their liberty and laws, their citizens are more daring to stand up to injustice. Choose between the lesser of 2 evils.

My friend bought several houses a few years back and I think the price has almost doubled--don't think it was rented out. The thing is with stocks and houses, there are several ways to get $--dividends/rents and capital appreciation. So if don't want to have the headache of bad tenants, then just buy for capital appreciation.

A lawyer friend revealed before that companies do buy commercial lots and just leave it vacant even if it takes years until they can sell it for a good profit. People think that these commercial lots are not bought as they have for rent/sale (some for years) but actually the developers have already sold them. It was an eye opener for me.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: May 3 2020, 04:47 PM

China is not self sustaining in natural resources, is hungry for resources. Contemporary history showed, CPC doesn't hesitate to bully her neighbours and trading partners, and start foreign conflict to distract domestic issue.

Given amount of misinformation campaign by CPC on covid19, expect China will become more aggressive in pushing it's weight around.

Unless bought before 2012, doubt property price doubled. Property price is the least transparency among investible assets. Asking, transacted, valuation, auction, spa, market value, etc could be substantially different.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 3 2020, 04:13 PM

Some activitists like the lawyer guy still missing after exposing covid19 in China. Scary.

Anyway, not sure when the properties were purchased. Yeah, property price are less transparent.

Are you trader/investor ? Need some professional outlook / view on overall situation?

Guys, it's gonna crash further, it's not rebounding yet.

No lar, health care counters such as glove counters are having an awesome time now (Pandemic + Optimism about share (greedy when people are fearful catchphrase bla bla..).

I plan to use them as a buy indicator because when health care stock move below their 200ma in general, this would mean two things

1) Likely the pandemic is at its tail end and investor foresee demand for health care product is going down

2) Market optimism has waned off, health care and consumer staples are the most defensive right now. If even they are lower than their 200ma this mean market is really over pessimistic and a bottom might be near, or market has became rational and nearer to reality

There are many crazy indicators analyst use, like sales of undergarments to predict economic downturn etc, so i guess mine is not so far-fetched ahaha

Ha ha, good one. G string indicator! I should search and master that!

Good point on the sma but ...

Why 200? Magic number?

For me, I used the 2008 crash data to guide me in interpreting and deciding on my sell earlier. Maybe, if you have not done that, find out how the 200 sma fit into the recovery picture for the past health crisis. Share the story here, please.

Thanks.

Saw this last night ...



Even Buffet is not in the buy buy frenzy now. Why is he not buying back BShire shares at the lower price now? Still too expensive i.e., still overvalued even for his own company?

Guess good to see when he will start buying. But due diligence, please.

Healthcare stocks like private hospitals are actually victim of the pandemic, as less customers go for ordinary health screening, or ordinary medical consultancy, treatment etc.

Only healthcare equipment like PPE, facemask, sanitizer related materials are benefit from it due to overwhelm demand.

Also, recent many drug or vaccine related stocks are sky-rocketing, but we know only the early bird will get the worm, not all must be successful and even successful but come in late, may be left out as well.
The vaccine producing is also race against time among competitors.

So beware of the over optimism.

Good news for the book worm! Try reading this during the MCO, highly recommended by Kiril Sokoloff, a very good investment strategist. The book "claimed" that high debt was the culprit behind the great depression. So ,,,,


And guru Sokoloff is into gold, good news for the gold followers. Didn't know that price of physical gold can be higher than paper gold (ETF etc), like it is now. Maybe it has always been like that, I didn't know.


Cheerio.

2 main culprit.

1. Money supply is tied to gold, hence inability to print more money when needed.

2. Fed acted wrongly by raising interest rate at that time. Raising interest rate causes liquidity crunch, which led to vicious cycle or economy recession.

Now Fed is doing the reverse, unlimited QE, and zeroing interest rate. Factor 2 is the most devastating.

Economy is all about money flow. The more money flow, the more dynamic the economy is. Above 2 factors are hindering money flow.

The debt theory has been there since after 2008 crisis especially when first QE being introduced, and for the record, DJ has up from low 6k~8K points to now 23K, a whooping 300% rise in 10 years.

If Fed is raising rate to 10% now, then I will have no doubt another great depression will be repeating.

Interesting!

If you know the reason behind the rise of physical gold (gold bullions, bars, any physical gold forms you can bite into), you might reconsider your motivation to invest into the stock market.

No point buying paper gold, when the reason above really becomes reality, you only get worth'less' paper value..

The world is moving to lower and lower interest rate. This was the main impetus on why I went back to the stock market as FD rates kept dropping.