How much helicopter money can the Feds drop from the sky ? This becomes the question then,... and if this dropping of helicopter money can be maintained TILL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES START PICKING-UP AGAIN, then prices can be maintained.

I think helicopter money is not the only reason why asset prices keep increasing, though, by no doubt, this could be one of the main reasons.

I do not think we have reached the bottom just yet. I do realize that stock market always tend to be forward looking. However, I don't think it's forward looking enough. Look at US unemployment numbers & their all time high debt level. This is on top of 1 million covid-19 cases as of yesterday....

Whatever that is happening now is purely coming from fed intervention & their helicopter money. Hence it's a bulltrap. Once the companies starts reporting their Q2 results, shit will hit the fan. Massive selloff will happen & even the Fed intervention won't be enough.

This is my 2cent worth of view.

Eh, if you sold your shares in late 2018, that means for about 1.5 years, you have not been in the stock market?

I do not think we have reached the bottom just yet. I do realize that stock market always tend to be forward looking. However, I don't think it's forward looking enough. Look at US unemployment numbers & their all time high debt level. This is on top of 1 million covid-19 cases as of yesterday....

Whatever that is happening now is purely coming from fed intervention & their helicopter money. Hence it's a bulltrap. Once the companies starts reporting their Q2 results, shit will hit the fan. Massive selloff will happen & even the Fed intervention won't be enough.

This is my 2cent worth of view.

“This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can do to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible,” Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday.

New bottom / buy indicator. When glove sector move below their 200sma its the signal for me to go in the market again.

*** By "move below their 200sma", are their prices on the decline? Have not checked one of my favourites (Hartalega) for some time now. Worried that Hartalega was expanding TOO fast with their new plants. Now, with covid, that expansion fits into their business earning very nicely.

Now just riding the up wave with good companies pickup from the march rout. Any extra all goes into cash for now.

Yes and no. Ha. I sold 98% of my overseas shares and kept the accounts alive. Why? For me to know lah. After that, I did not buy any overseas or local. Yes, this scary tiny tiger is hiding in the bushes.   
We are on the same brain wave! Ha. This huge QE is like extra big plasters and extra strength panadol trying to cure cancer patients. Temporary relief, yes. Solving the problem? Better ask doctors here. Ha.
There is an exception to everything. Like too big to fall (see what happened to Enron). FED is mighty and can ride this out? Maybe. Alone, no country now can displace the giant USA. But together, with key countries, they can and will push USA down from the 1st position platform. Even in the 1970s with huge demand by countries to convert their US$ to gold, their gold reserve was declining. President Nixon later axed the gold standard for the US$. My personal view is, the US$ strength is partly artificial. Eg oil and gas transactions must be in US$ (dictated by the middle east country in return for military support?). Also, surprised to learn this fact when I asked a bank on how they calculate my card overseas expanses. If I go to country A and buy things using my card, the calculation will (1) convert A$ to US$ and then (2) US$ to RM. Any fees involved for (1), don't know. Nonetheless, step (1) is just creating demand for the US$. Heard Russia and China have started their oil and gas transactions using non-US$. Will they continue? Will that grow? No idea.

If my memory is right from what I read, Dutch Guilder was the global currency in the old old days, later British pound took over later. And later US$. Which will be next? RM !!! Ya, only in my wildest dream!

Thanks. You must be very patient to be out of the overseas market for so long.

Luckily to me (some may feel contrary), I do not have the urge to buy, buy. 2 of my friends have been buying consistently before Feb 2020. I think they feel that money is wasted and must be invested, thinking that buying = investing. Not saying they are wrong, it is their money and maybe they feel better after buying. And yes, they would be making money if the Feb crash did not happen.

Good video I got in the email last night. About US$ and oil. More than 30 mns long. Yes, this is a marketing video about his club. Nonetheless, still worth watching it to learn more about the $ and oil.

If I have one of the 7 oil US companies, I will get out now. Why? A quick one, if US$ is no longer the global currency, interest there will shoot up, those companies with high debts will be in the frying pan. Ditto for non oil companies with high debts. Many oil companies are now not that healthy even with US$ as reserve currency on their side.

Think airlines will survive and a necessity in the coming decades and the strong ones are worth buying especially during this lockdown period.

Few words of caution, don't just follow what other people say. Due diligence is on yourself to do your own analysis.

If anyone here subscribes to it, please share some tips with me. Thanks. Ha.

USD will remain the global currency for the foreseeable future. The reason is that there is no alternative. It's the no 1 global currency with 80% market share of global trade. Which upstart currency will take away a big chunk of this 80%? The 2nd currency is EUR which is a mere 5% of global trade n EUR in my view is actually going ro be in deep trouble soon.

At the same time, I do believe that one day, USD will no longer be the dominant currency, but this will happen slowly and in a much longer run. Perhaps earliest is in another 10 years, maybe then we can see a viable alternative to start to gain ground and then maybe another 10-20 years for USD dominance to really end. That's like in 2050 time frame.

N I expect US interest rate to remain 0 at least until end of next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decisio...-come-back.html

should we still buy or wait longer ?

I forgot to add the video link in my previous posting. Mind you, it is a rather long video 30+ mins and a marketing video. Nonetheless, it is worth a look, at least to me. Maybe because I have that tunnel vision on the petrol dollar etc. Enjoy!

If there are any subscribers to his club here, please share some tips with me. Ha.

https://pro.oxfordclub.com/p/OPEC320UPORELT...OREW473/?h=true
Please give me a buzz once you know the answer! Ha.

Reserve parking... tell me when is the good time to enter again.

Reserve parking... tell me when is the good time to enter again.

U asking TS? I think 1 year from now or never.

I forgot to add the video link in my previous posting. Mind you, it is a rather long video 30+ mins and a marketing video. Nonetheless, it is worth a look, at least to me. Maybe because I have that tunnel vision on the petrol dollar etc. Enjoy!

If there are any subscribers to his club here, please share some tips with me. Ha.

https://pro.oxfordclub.com/p/OPEC320UPORELT...OREW473/?h=true
Please give me a buzz once you know the answer! Ha.

Mana boleh reverse parking like the back door govt?   

Better to ask the many experienced sifus here. 

Luckily to me (some may feel contrary), I do not have the urge to buy, buy. 2 of my friends have been buying consistently before Feb 2020. I think they feel that money is wasted and must be invested, thinking that buying = investing. Not saying they are wrong, it is their money and maybe they feel better after buying. And yes, they would be making money if the Feb crash did not happen.

Good video I got in the email last night. About US$ and oil. More than 30 mns long. Yes, this is a marketing video about his club. Nonetheless, still worth watching it to learn more about the $ and oil.

If I have one of the 7 oil US companies, I will get out now. Why? A quick one, if US$ is no longer the global currency, interest there will shoot up, those companies with high debts will be in the frying pan. Ditto for non oil companies with high debts. Many oil companies are now not that healthy even with US$ as reserve currency on their side.

Think airlines will survive and a necessity in the coming decades and the strong ones are worth buying especially during this lockdown period.

Few words of caution, don't just follow what other people say. Due diligence is on yourself to do your own analysis.

If anyone here subscribes to it, please share some tips with me. Thanks. Ha.

USD will remain the global currency for the foreseeable future. The reason is that there is no alternative. It's the no 1 global currency with 80% market share of global trade. Which upstart currency will take away a big chunk of this 80%? The 2nd currency is EUR which is a mere 5% of global trade n EUR in my view is actually going ro be in deep trouble soon.

At the same time, I do believe that one day, USD will no longer be the dominant currency, but this will happen slowly and in a much longer run. Perhaps earliest is in another 10 years, maybe then we can see a viable alternative to start to gain ground and then maybe another 10-20 years for USD dominance to really end. That's like in 2050 time frame.

N I expect US interest rate to remain 0 at least until end of next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decisio...-come-back.html

Semburit culture org kito

I hope that USD will remain the global currency for many years--not because I like USA but because if there's no other good alternative currency, then the world would be in a much worse place. For all of USA faults, having China as a main or 2nd main currency would be even worse knowing how China operates. Euro is just too weak with countries like Italy in the fold. Germany is strong but then no more deutschemark. Swiss franc used to be a safe haven also until it had no choice but to devalue its currency (when euro plunged years ago ) to save its economy. Japanese yen is another safe haven currency but not the main and cannot be the main with its aging population.

***  I see. Not saying you are wrong, Why do we need a global currency? Maybe for international transactions, we need a reference currency for payment. But do we really NEED one? Say I import 1 million yen worth of mirrorless cameras from Japan. I can transfer 1 million yen to the Japan company within x days of the contract. Yes, that 1 million yen will be different amounts of RM during the x days. That RM - yen variations will still be there even when US$ is used as the reference global currency. All the currencies are inter linked, a zero sum game.

*** If my understanding at UPSR level is totally wrong, a reserve currency is a MUST, then why can't we have 2 or 3 currencies as the benchmark global currency? Feel that USA is abusing that status. Used to have high respect for that country. But now, respect is earned, not demanded, to me.

*** The above is not directed at you. Just speaking my mind.

Oil--who knows what will happen in the long future. I remembered before shale oil was discovered, everybody was saying oil is so limited and how price will shoot through the roof. Even when it was just starting out, how expensive it would be for it to extract it. Even when shale was operating profitably, nobody expected $0 much less negative oil prices. Seems that there's a first in everything.

*** My original premise in holding onto my oil shares (the ones that I sold in 2018) was to wait for the reserve to deplete in 30-50 years, then the share price will shoot up. Sell then for my grand retirement. Wishful dream? Yes. Ha. A 180 degree turn for me when I read about a Norwegian retirement fund was planning to sell its oil funds (they took a big hit in the Feb dip) and EU has planned to phase out fossil vehicles production by 2040 (similar plan by China but no time frame as given). That gave birth to my sell plan.  With shale oil, oil will still run out one day. Maybe delay it by another 50 years?

*** Just speaking my mind here. And I have been wrong before.

Yeah, agree that don't simply follow everyone blindly. DD is needed

Minta maaf. Bukan tak mahu tolong. Kawan sini UPSR murid sahaja, masih belajar macro economy 00001. Tidak berkelayakan untuk mengajar. 

I believe in the sayings:

A. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. 
B. The harder I tried, the luckier I get.   

Malaysia BOLEH semasa mencuba!

I like reading. Saw this book,

manias, panics and crashes - a history of financial crises  7th edition

(with so many edition, this book must be good! Ha. I got conned by a book written by a Msian lady on investment. 3rd edition, I think, so it must be a good one. Not really. Some publishers used the edition to lure in sleeping buyers like me!)

Started reading this book. Please share if you have read the book. The foreword is difficult for me to digest, Hope the rest is easier.

Cheerio.

Have you read this?

Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile .

I have not read what you suggested; i`ll check it out.

Thanks.

Started on The Black Swan some years back but did not get far. Guess hard to digest. Ha.

Will try the rest. Antifragile's author has other good books to try too.

Any good points from these books to share here?

The Maniac book is quite hard to read. But still good to scan through. Surprised to read that (if I understand it correctly), the crashes while they had the gold standard were more frequent and harsher than without the gold standard. Always though with the gold standard is better. For each $ note they print, every country has gold to back it up. So money supply is controlled and thus the markets.

Also, it seems to me from reading that book that every crisis is somehow related to the banks! Ha. Providing too much money credit to the markets, especially foreign money which later stopped and triggered the crashes. Many pages to read (400+ pages).

Thanks.