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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Yggdrasil
post Nov 1 2018, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 1 2018, 11:29 AM)
***  It goes down by half, let it recovers after x years. I still cannot understand why is that a good strategy. Get out early and park the money somewhere first. If that company is really good, then get in again on recovery. Maybe it is easy to say but hard to do. I will be doing that soon (minus the buying on recovery). Ha.
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What you're doing is to avoid risk. But of course, high risk, high return. Just before TOPGLOV announced their 1:1 bonus issue, their share price dipped for no reason (You can view historical prices). Probably investors were afraid. If you were one of those who sold, you would have missed out the bonus issue and a potential 10% capital gain.
Yggdrasil
post May 6 2019, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Apr 12 2019, 08:47 PM)
Mentioned on the inversion curves. And they said, based on the curves, the major corrections shall be on 0219.... I think nothing happen.
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Not mistaken it should happen around May right? Now is May, we shall see..
Yggdrasil
post May 7 2019, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ May 7 2019, 03:41 PM)
The inversion wasn’t really counted because it didn’t last more than the ‘supposed’ indicator
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Haha I like how people justify when something they predict didn't happen. I mean if the recession can be predicted, then there will be no losers.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 7 2019, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 7 2019, 08:46 PM)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ket-slump-ahead

Looks like DT will do his best to avoid a recession if he wants to win in the 2020 election. If he can achieve that, then delay till 2021 for the grand fishing.  bangwall.gif  ranting.gif  devil.gif  cry.gif  sad.gif
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So all in or all cash?

And is Huawei still banned?
Yggdrasil
post Jul 8 2019, 12:58 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 8 2019, 12:50 AM)
I am currently HOLD. About 40% in Equities. Not buying more n not selling either. Wait and see.
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Mind sharing what you're holding? I'm sitting at 20% Equities 80% Cash
Yggdrasil
post Jul 8 2019, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 8 2019, 07:01 AM)
Hehe,... I am strategizing now to go into share margin financing - wanting to play a 'higher game' now.
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Don't play play if you don't have liquid assets to cover
Yggdrasil
post Jul 10 2019, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 10 2019, 01:10 PM)
Thank you for your insights.

The above quoted took into consideration the current crisis that Deutsche Bank is facing ?

Do you think this crisis could be one of the catalysts to recession similar to what happened to Lehman Bro in 2008 ?
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Next economic crisis unlikely to be banks. Banks already learnt their lesson.
Last time anyone can simply get a loan. Now there is stringent background checks and improved accounting standards to provide better financial reporting.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 10 2019, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Jul 10 2019, 02:33 PM)
I am not too convinced yet about the bolded above. Goldman S learned the lesson with its involvement in the 1MDB post 2008? 

Nonetheless just to clarify  in this context I am just point the coincidental parallel between Lehman Bro and Deutsche Bank and the catalysts to recession could be multifaceted.
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I'm referring to consumers you and me. Fraud can happen anytime.

Yggdrasil
post Jul 10 2019, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(ViktorJ @ Jul 10 2019, 09:47 PM)
If taking into account the broader financial system entities outside of just global banks to include non-banks such as insurance companies, pension funds, open-ended funds (i.e. mutual funds and exchange traded funds), structured credit funds etc, I would say we are at -3/10 right now.
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Cool. So you're all cash right?
Yggdrasil
post Jul 11 2019, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 11 2019, 01:57 PM)
Sorry for my poor english.

What I meant is, like Enron which was huge, people thought it was too big for it to fall. But it did fall.

Ditto with the higher bank reserve, people will think the banks will not fall during a major crisis, but some will. Thus the myth. Darwin's survival of the fittest comes in then.
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Enron is not a bank lol. And Enron happened during 2001.
Of course it's hard to imagine a big company to fail. Like who would expect Google or Facebook to fall?
Yggdrasil
post Jul 11 2019, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 11 2019, 04:51 PM)
If we look at history, every crash always come in new "form", or in other word, always in new area.

1986 Market crash
1997 AFC
2000 Dotcom bubble
2008 Global financial crisis
2016 oil price crash.
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Yup. Maybe this time is tech? Haha. I do think a lot of tech stocks are overvalued.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 12 2019, 12:39 AM

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Inb4, people think they can time the market after looking back (post hoc rationalisation).

Just few months back people screaming recession but look at the S&P500 now. Already breach 3,000.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 13 2019, 08:46 PM

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Market timing don't usually work because you will forever be hoping it will drop even further/too scared to enter.

If KLSE opens -40% tomorrow, I bet non of these market timing people will even buy. They will expect another drop in the following day. Before they can enter, it's already +30%.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 13 2019, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 13 2019, 09:22 PM)
KLSE can't open tomorrow coz it's Sunday... 😅
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Just an analogy.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 13 2019, 09:22 PM)
But what most ppl are probably not aware is that there is a KLCI limit down of 10%. This has been triggered only once in 2008, right after GE where BN lost 2/3 majority.
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Didn't know KLSE has a limit down. Isn't the index based on stocks like Tenaga, Maybank, TopGlov etc? If all those drop by 30%, how can the KLSE not drop more than 10%?

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 13 2019, 09:22 PM)
At current level, this would mean a 166 point drop, putting KLCI at 1500. If for some strange reason* that happens, I would likely buy on Tuesday... Does it make me a market timer? .. 😆
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You are a market timer when you pull out of the market thinking you can reenter later. To be honest, it's easy for people to say they will buy the next day but when reality comes, most will be in fear to even press buy. Plus, most of these market timer's monies are probably be in fixed deposits. Before they can transfer, the market already recover.

For example, just few days back Maybank dipped to around RM8.75 in one day but I bet none of them bought.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 13 2019, 09:22 PM)
* actually come to think of it.. I can think of one reason our market maybe can fall tht way under current condition.. . Someone important pass away..
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Yeah, my dad said that important person is already so old that he can pass away anytime in sleep. When that happens, the market will collapse lol
Yggdrasil
post Jul 15 2019, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2019, 04:28 PM)
ps. I could easily go more than 9.

for example.

10. Cash flow positive.

11. Nett cash. ie. Cash more than total borrowings.

12. Cash most show growth the most recent 3 years....

13. No borrowings...

etc etc etc....

like I said...pick own poison. tongue.gif
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Agreed. But I disagree with no borrowings. Totally no borrowings shows the company is bad with finances
Yggdrasil
post Jul 15 2019, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Jul 15 2019, 08:09 PM)
For many "investors" and even a famous old man, low PE is a must.

Funny thing is, my two best performing counters in Bursa this one month have high PEs.

Counter R, with PE of about 40, shot up > 50% 1-2 days after I bought it.

Counter P, with PE of about 25, have been unimpressive for 1-2 years. Suddenly, in 1 week, it nearly tripled in price. It's my second best performing counter ever, my top counter was a six bagger HK/China small cap.

To be honest, my positions in all 3 counters are small. And I have many disappointments as well. One can never be sure which one will pleasantly surprise or disappoint.
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Just because these stocks shoot up doesn't mean anything.
P/E is relative. Healthy P/E should be around 10-15 but depends on industry. Expect Tech industry to be around 15-20.

Price shooting up but P/E 50+ could mean it was making loss in one of the quarter, highly speculative of future earnings (political stock) etc. Still overvalued in my opinion
Yggdrasil
post Jul 15 2019, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(GenY @ Jul 15 2019, 08:37 PM)
Important thing is the price shoot up and the investor makes $. The rest are blah, blah ...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but are u the 23 yo fella who told me last year his dad sold also cleared his stocks in preparation for the coming crash ... and later demanded proof when I posted that my stocks performed well despite the violent swings or something like that   hmm.gif
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Buying for short term then selling to lock in gains is not investing. More like trading.

I don't recall asking for proof. Maybe because the evidence wasn't delivered. I also believe majority of the stocks in Malaysia have fallen since that post.

Inb4, 3 month shows 50% gain but y-o-y shows 100% loss.

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Jul 15 2019, 08:47 PM
Yggdrasil
post Jul 15 2019, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 15 2019, 08:47 PM)
24 y.o and laugh at other for not a private bank customer?
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Out of context. Was just curious if anyone in that thread was a private banking customer. 'Haha' was used to break the ice.
Yggdrasil
post Jul 15 2019, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 15 2019, 08:49 PM)
Curious how to quantify 100% loss?
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Just and illustration. As long as you get the idea.

Fine to be specific:

Let X be 'huge loss'
50%<X<100%

user posted image

Obligatory image for people who don't understand what I'm saying.

Wow anyone can say I made 29.50% gain in a day!
Actually, it's 80.91% loss since the day they bought it

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Jul 15 2019, 09:11 PM
Yggdrasil
post Jul 16 2019, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 16 2019, 03:23 AM)
81% loss is not 100% loss. How you derive 100% loss in bursa?
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Puts and calls? Never touch those before?

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