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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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zacknistelrooy
post Mar 14 2020, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 14 2020, 05:44 PM)
Even the market crashing currently, many US stocks price, typically like Apple still way above its price 2 to 3 years ago when this topic started.

Apples was below 200 years back. Prior before current market crash, it went up until 3xx, now even with this round one of greatest market crashing, it is still at 277 yesterday.

So even we had crystal ball in 2018 as this topic started time, that knowing 2020 will have big crash, selling Apple shares at that time, seen not a right move as well.

So, this tells us, in order to make money in the stock market, choosing right stock to invest is the key, not timing the market.

Edited
Re-quote, what was posted by me back 2 years back, which indeed happening right now, despite with the crash.
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Right on point

Even if one isn't a stock picker and bought the Tech ETF, it now only back to Nov 2019 levels and has given ample opportunity for anyone who is really scared to realzie their profits.


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 14 2020, 07:46 PM)
It's a waste of time... TS have said a thousand times that he/she is not MARKET TIMING.

whistling.gif
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One does even need to be a market timer if they choose the right stock. That is the point being made by others here. If one even did DCA during the first six months into the Tech ETF then they are still up from last year.

Imagine if I say I bought Boeing and it has now crashed 50% and keep telling I got out at the right time. Well that shows that I did not pick the right stock because Boeing did nothing from early 2019.
zacknistelrooy
post Mar 14 2020, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 14 2020, 08:38 PM)
You should tell the TS. Lol
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Sorry if it came off the wrong way. That wasn't my intention.

Meant to be a general reply


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 14 2020, 08:52 PM)
And if the topic was correctly termed as Market Timing, I am sure that many would even contribute constructively.

But hell no, topic was changed from recession to market crash...

Topic was even closed....

LOL.

Utterly pathetic.
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Second


QUOTE(aspartame @ Mar 14 2020, 09:51 PM)
That is a big IF.... on hindsight, we said Apple and tech stocks are good picks .... now, can you give me one name that is a good stock going forward? Just one name..

The thing is picking a sure winner is as hard , if not harder than market timing... otherwise , u would have fund managers beating averages day in and day out...
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My intention wasn't to introduce any Hindsight Bias.

If this was about an index and one took profit then that would be fair enough but the TS said that he bought some stocks and it down 50% when many other stocks in US at least aren't even down that much.

Till today also we still don't even know what stock the TS is talking about which introduces even more skepticism.

Like others have said, one can't just pick one stock and then have confirmation bias once something comes true.



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Mar 14 2020, 11:20 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 28 2020, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 28 2020, 05:02 PM)
How much helicopter money can the Feds drop from the sky ? This becomes the question then,... and if this dropping of helicopter money can be maintained TILL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES START PICKING-UP AGAIN, then prices can be maintained.

I think helicopter money is not the only reason why asset prices keep increasing, though, by no doubt, this could be one of the main reasons.
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Yeah

FED isn't the only reason

We have to ask our self who has been hit hardest

For now at least it has unfortunately hit the lower income while the bigger companies are benefiting from this

This isn't only in tech

The other day Wingstop hit at all time high while single restaurants closed down in US

Plus other than Google freezing hiring tech hasn't laid off as much at least in US

Also who own stocks in US:

user posted image

Also a small survey done by income for those who can work from home:

user posted image

QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 28 2020, 05:42 PM)
The stock market recovers before the economy recovers. Reason is because people are forward looking. People don't invest in the past, they invest for the future.

In fact, the stock market starts to show uptrend when a recession is officially declared. Malaysia should be back to normal in a month or two.
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Exactly

Economic news is after all a lagging indicator
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