Yes but timing that entry is easier said then done.

There is a debt bubble globally. Because of low interest rates, there is a lof debt out there n the world. Some thing can prick this bubble say Trade War.?

Negative yield means negative interest rate. Means for Borrower u borrow money u get money (instead of paying interest). For lender, U lend money u hv to pay the borrower.

This negative yield bonds is govt issued by countries facing deflation eg Japan, Europe. This is done to stimulate their economy, encourage ppl to borrow money n spend.

For the stock investor this is good, in the short term. In the long term, it's bad for everybody bcoz it's screwed up.

Did you clear all your stocks? I saw that u started this thread in August last year.

I don't think he would hv made loads of money, if he stayed n DCA Not in Malaysian stock market now anyway. YTD KLCI is flat. So chances are he would lose some dividends. N if he DCA using mutual funds, he might be underwater due to the fees.

Of course we don't know wht next 6 month brings. But I think Malaysia stock market nowadays need to be nimble, in and out. Not blindly DCA.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jun 24 2019, 11:26 AM

I think you are lucky coz Dec was the bottom of the correction, n now both market are at record highs.

But I also think tht those markets can easily fall 50% or more in a recession.KLCI, not so much, coz we already suck.. 😆

So I hope that Stashaway algo is fast enough if tht happens.. I tried to open a Stashaway account but I wasn't approved coz I hv more than 1 property loans..

Will u hv money at tht point in time tho.. 😂

Buying at top is ok for the US market. Life is not fair, they hv wacko President n their market still go up n up 😆 U try that (buy at tops) in Malaysia, Singapore n HK (China) markets.. U cry.

N even for US, will it continue forever? . the day of reckoning will come one day.. In 2008 SnP fell by more than 60% iirc.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jun 24 2019, 12:58 PM

Sorry

S&P fell 56.4% in the last US recession

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740145/from/37740147/

Nope...not all in cash.

My investment portfolio is roughly about 30% dividend stocks in My n SG n another 10% HK/China.. The rest in cash, bonds n gold.

G20.. Trump meting Xi tomorrow...😅

Disaster averted! For the time being at least.

Monday morning buy HSI Calls.

I am currently HOLD. About 40% in Equities. Not buying more n not selling either. Wait and see.

Current holding Equities
Maybank (1155)
Bursa (1818)
China-ETF MYR (0829EA)

* counters might change anytime. I tend to take profit (usually too early) but will replace with some other stock. However, overall comfortable with 40% equity exposure atm.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 8 2019, 02:32 AM

Compared to pre Global Financial Crisis, banks are much stronger. Read up on Basel I, Ii and III.

They are keeping higher capital, higher liquidity n better risk management. That's why Banks in general nowadays have lower profit growth. They are required to keep more cash/liquid instruments rather than deploying them more profitably. This has impacted their share price performance. Not just in Malaysia but almost everywhere.

Too big too fail is not a myth, post 2008.

Under Basel they are called systemically important financial institutions and are subjected regularly to stress tests by regulators to ensure that they have enough capital in event of a crisis.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemicall...ial_institution

You have to accept the fact that Banks have improved a lot terms of capacity to face financial crisis. However tht is also a problem now because they are required to keep too much capital that their profitability suffers.

DB Is a prime example of this. DB is not having lack of money problems. It has too much money, not enough profits. And because in Europe they have negative interest rate, DB has to pay for that cash. With Germany economic. slowdown and trade war, they have problem with giving out loans. U combine the two and u will understand DB problem.

In this region, same challenges DBS, OCBC, Maybank etc..onlynot as bad Asean still have decent growth and interest rate not yet negative.

How much equity exposure u have in your investment portfolio atm?

If u count?

40% Equities (Asean n China)
15% Bonds (MYR)
10% Gold
25% Cash (MYR)
10% Cash (USD)

Approximate.. Give or take 1-2%.

Investment outlook: A big horrible crash is coming but there is a now a good possibility of a nice big rally esp. for Emerging Markets, just before that.

The whole Malaysian market crashed from 2q2014-2015. Not just OnG counters.

It didn't look so bad from a Ringgit perspective coz Ringgit crashed too.. But if u look at our market from a USD perspective, it was quite horrible.

Look at the price chart of EWM etf in that period for proof.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 12 2019, 01:40 AM

Forex is not complicated to calculate at all.

When it comes to my financial well being and security I will take forex into account. I just don't wory abt short term fluctuations.

This is because debasement of currency is a real risk to financial long term health. U can take Venuzela as one example..Venuzelans who didnt take Forex into account (vast majority of them) are dirt poor now. Extreme case yah.. Malaysia not close to tht by large margin.. but well.. In the 90s it was USD1: 2.5 thereabouts. Now is 1USD:4+. Long term decline... In USD terms our market is actually cheaper now than it was in the peak of 90s.

When it comes to the big global crisis, usually people will run to the dollar n emerging currencies will fall. But dollar itself will also be de-based because Fed will lower interest rate to zero or negative. To protect against debasement of RM and fiat currencies in general, I make sure I hv USD n gold as insurance. However, in the short term, RM has been gaining vs the USD.

But my nightmare scenario is 2021-2022, global recession. 2023, Umno-PAS coalition wins GE...