QUOTE(plumberly @ Feb 27 2019, 08:40 AM)
If you are referring to the table I used earlier, that one is to look ahead, the positives and negatives in selling the shares, then what can I do to maximise the positives and minimise the negatives.
Cannot get 100% gains as the market is beyond anyone's control. Just do my best in plotting the journey, asking others for insight, etc.
Knowing where I am now, would I have kept the shares and not sold them if I could turn back time?
No. I may have lost 3% but I gained SWAN. Ha.
Some may disagree with my approach. Everyone can have his/her view (everyone can fly!). Just do your own analysis and then decide.
The only time I can tell you we are in recession is AFTER the recession has started.
I do believe you got it seriously wrong with your mindset. I've entered this discussion BECAUSE it was a 'fair' market strategy. Sell before a recession or sell before a market crash. It's a worthwhile discussion.
Now, your critics (me included) had brought before you the RISKS of such a strategy. A strategy which is based on economic data and factors. In which I have mentioned economic data is fuzzy and that recessionary data is lagging. You wouldn't know till it happen or NOT HAPPEN. And it's a known fact that economist gets the forecasts very so wrong so often.
For example..
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
There are lessons to be learned. The past is not a reliable guide to the future. The consensus is not always right. Economic forecasting is not a hard science, even though it pretends that it is.
The fallback position for those who said the sky would instantly fall in after the referendum is that they were right about everything apart from the timing. Armageddon has been postponed, not cancelled. The consensus is that in the long term there will be a sizable and permanent hit to the economy from Brexit, caused by a loss of trade and inward investment. The Treasury’s central forecast is that the cost of leaving the EU is an economy that will be 6% smaller in 2030 than it would be under the status quo.
Yet models are only as good as the information they process: garbage in equals garbage out. The garbage factor increases if forecasts are designed to serve a political end, as was the case with both sides during the referendum campaign.
A new Cambridge University study* shows that forecasting the medium to long term can be just as prone to error as forecasting the short term. Their argument is simple. Leaving the EU is a unique event. No other country has tried to do it. There is no past experience to draw on, which means that the best forecasters can do is construct “a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019”.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/econom...et-things-wrongjust one of the many, many articles out if one searches for it.....
So you want to USE the strategy of CLEARING STOCKS BEFORE THE COMING CRASH...
When would the crash happen? Is it certain it would happen? Or what we had seen last year was nothing but a mere correction of an extreme long bull?
This is MARKET TIMING AND IF THIS IS NOT WHAT IS THEN?
Yes?
Now, if you cannot fathom and understand market timing and even acknowledged the risk involved, what's the point of discussing then?
Oh, yes to each to their own. Their way, his way, her way, my way. Oh yes. No doubt.
But then, what's the point of the posting then?
The funniest thing is that you ended the post by stating 'The only time I can tell you we are in recession is AFTER the recession has started.'
This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 27 2019, 10:16 AM 
Dec 31 2018, 07:59 AM
Quote
0.0206sec
0.88
7 queries
GZIP Disabled