Market can crash so just prepare bucket load of cash to scoop up good stocks. Don't chase stocks which price have ran away.

I know what you mean. Good to have some people in the same line of looking ahead. Ha.

Mind sharing which construction companies you have and are not doing well due to ECRL or HSR? PM me the name. Curious to know.

If now it is not doing well, with recession, it will do even worse. Like I have said many times, I do not mean to add fuel to the fire (tiny little smoke at the moment?). Ha.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Oct 2 2018, 07:47 PM

For the ones most likely to suffer a big drop (say >40%), selling them early will generate a bigger cash bucket for later use.

Some may recover later but why waste the x years for it just to break even?

For me very simple. I see things expensive, I won't buy. I will just seat on cash and let my own stocks continue generating dividends.

You might have read about my perspective on investing in p2p notes related to construction industry as whole in P2P thread. As such, I am not keen on construction related stocks in general. Maybe you mistaken me with others who shared about the construction stocks.

Generally I avoid any cyclical stocks if I buy and hold for invest, unless I do short term trading.

Let's see how much the market drops for S&P 500 since post-world war II.

The last recession 2007 - a whopping 57% drop.

Source: Moon Capital Management


Attached thumbnail(s)

Nothing goes up forever or non stop, stock market will crash eventually and often earlier than most expected. Few if any could predict when and how market will crash.

If one liquidate early may miss out further gain but can consider this "lost gain" as insurance premium.

Given amount debts piled up by many corporate and gomen, next financial crisis is likely triggered by bonds default and elevated bank interest rate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 3 2018, 02:54 PM

so, today CN market down and so far the Oct have been not really good.

all the emerging markets are down at the mean time.

India drop a lot.

is the crash starting...

should have trim down all EQ 3 months back..

3 months later, you may be saying you should have trimmed down all in October

haha.

but definitely may18 is the turning point of my port. too bad. real bad.

now only I realize GFC will happen. no matter what. and now it's end of the cycle. with trump on throne, he will just try to boost US as far as possible. but it will not canceled out GFC.

we already see Asia Pacific on plateau.... I suppose it will not having bull run again. but bear.

yea May18 was when my port went to holland...lol

2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision

i think striking a balance between your own portfolio is important,

fixed income position xx%
REIT portfolio xx%
higher risk stocks xx%
your cash position xx%

total 100%.

but you may lower your stocks positions and place more into cash, that way you are able to hedge against whatever correction, but no one can predict 100% accurately right.

On average a drop of 20-30% during downturn is "normal", considered that the market has been going up almost non-drop for the last 10 years or so (for US market).

2007 is "whooping" event, that generally may only occur once of twice in one's investment life time.

Even with such history of "plunging", S&P still chunk out handsome gain over the long term, it just indicated long term investment works, provided one invested in right stocks and discipline throughout.

indeed hahahaahah.

you apa macham? decided to stand outside the ring till when haha. you exit very early worr 2017 end?

Yes, third strategy middle of the road is a balanced strategy

Me strategy #1

Exited mid 2017. That time put in 15-24 months maturity and overseas property. Some starting to mature and still reinvesting back to safe products....

Because the older I get, the smaller my LP

My 2 cents + rationale on my look ahead on this topic using one share in the last crash as example ....

Scene 1 - the ugly (damn ugly!!!)

What to do?
I don't want to see my asset loosing value like that!

Scene 2 - the pretty (too good to be true, alias mission impossible)

Cannot be that lucky to time it at the highest and at the lowest!
So what to do?

Scene 3 (later)
.....


History will not repeat exactly but it tends to follow ...

P/S No share split or share bonus during that period in my last check. I excluded dividends to simply the calculations.

PP/S I used $100,000 as illustration to highlight the impact. Not that I have that amount. Ha.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Oct 9 2018, 12:17 PM

Good move I must say.
I now also plan to trim down all eq. Just close 1 eye. 10 eq to 90 bond fund.

No really possible to time. As we can see on the UT thread. Whn the market started to volatile, many people started to buy when the price drop 2%. But end up M-O-M the price drop and people still thin, that is discount and buy it. End up? Cathced the falling knife. Now market bottom no where to be seen.

Next up to look up for prop bubble. In previous crash, always strong related with props. Aiyo, I so tired of this.

Crash just let it crash la. Walao. Look at the graph I also headache. Plateau don't know until when.

Instead of selling before the crash or at the highest price, what about shortly after the crash?

Let me finish my Scene 3 graph.