Of course your margin of safety need to be large for you not to fear it.
Singtel
UMS
S-reits

Are some of my dividend machine.

If enough investors think as you do, thats when we will have a crash.

My 2 cents ...

My personal view is, it is just not the right timing for a beginner to try the stock market near the end of the cycle when most companies are overvalued. The good sifus here can still make money regardless of the market.

Park your money in a safer place (like FD, ASX etc) first.

After the crash, then use the money to get some fair companies at wonderful prices. Study some companies now and get them when the prices are right after the crash.

Cheerio.

I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year 

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side 

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...

Just a sharing from a global economy outlook workshop organized by a brokerage firm which I attended. According to their panel of speakers, most of them are of the opinion that this bull run will continue at least until the next US presidential election in 2020, reason being DT will do everything in his power to keep the US economy in good shape so that he can get re-elected for the 2nd term. After that, be very careful, the mother of all crash is coming

Like the trade war, whether the impeachment will be successful is still anyone's guess, but most signs are still showing a continuing bull run. 2020 is not that far ahead either, you'll probably have around 2 years to make the most out of this bull

The USD strength, and previous QE money around the globe that flowing back to US + tax cut money + dovish Fed, that resulted the bull keep on charging.

Based on history (which repeating many times) market won't tumbled if they were not making new high. 
So you need the market keep on going up a steep rate, before it can tumble. 

No feedback/comment on my overview? Tolong lah.

Updated one as below. As of now, tempted with 70% probability to sell 90-95% of the shares, keeping some for sentimental reason. Ha.
[attachmentid=10003220]

They say Sept is the worst performing month in the global stock market. Please don't take that as the bible truth. Ha. I wonder how many of the past recessions started in Sept.

Not trying to add fuel to the recession is coming fire, ok? Ha.

I am now P90 in selling my shares. Question now is when?

Plan is to monitor the shares:
* sales
* debt
* cash flow
* revenue
* dividend
* intrinsic value
* etc

and sell if one of the above goes out of the norm (on the negative side).

If the above are all OK, then sell when the price drops by more than -2 * std deviation (40 days).

Cheerio.

Yes, too many to keep my eyes on. Only on dividends and price at the moment.

Got the -2*SD graphs in place now. Waiting for the day to jump out! Ha.

Please don't come back and lecture me that no one can time the market. I am not trying to time the market. Just want to know when there are strong signs that the company is not doing well and better get out then.

Cheerio.

You are breaking my no 1 rule, do not blindly follow others. Ha.

Instead of using Excel to do the 2SD monitoring, can use Bollinger chart in most stock software. Don't use one indicator in your decision making. Use at least 2 independent indicators.

Eg
* the sun rises
* now it is bright
then the 2 criteria are met! Not really, one follows the other.

Same with price indicators. So beware!

Cheerio.

I know what you mean. Good to have some people in the same line of looking ahead. Ha.

Mind sharing which construction companies you have and are not doing well due to ECRL or HSR? PM me the name. Curious to know.

If now it is not doing well, with recession, it will do even worse. Like I have said many times, I do not mean to add fuel to the fire (tiny little smoke at the moment?). Ha.

For the ones most likely to suffer a big drop (say >40%), selling them early will generate a bigger cash bucket for later use.

Some may recover later but why waste the x years for it just to break even?

   

On average a drop of 20-30% during downturn is "normal", considered that the market has been going up almost non-drop for the last 10 years or so (for US market).

2007 is "whooping" event, that generally may only occur once of twice in one's investment life time.

Even with such history of "plunging", S&P still chunk out handsome gain over the long term, it just indicated long term investment works, provided one invested in right stocks and discipline throughout.

2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision 

Instead of selling before the crash or at the highest price, what about shortly after the crash?

Let me finish my Scene 3 graph.

Best thing to do is to look at the companies you have invested, see how fast they responded to past crisis. It will not be perfect science but that should be a good guide on how fast each responded to crisis.

Dont time it down to the day or cent.

Also, use 2-3 other parameters to help in gauging whether something is going wrong globally (eg SP 500, copper price, KLCI).

Cheerio.