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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Ramjade
post Aug 23 2018, 09:31 PM

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For me I will collect my cash and go in when market crash.

Hold what I have and don't add unless it's attractive. It's OK to seat on cash while waiting.

So if market don't crash, my dividends still come rolling in. If market crash, I average down and increase my dividends.
Ramjade
post Aug 24 2018, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(donhay @ Aug 24 2018, 09:31 AM)
brilliant idea, which dividends collecting company do u have at the moment?

Thanks
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Of course your margin of safety need to be large for you not to fear it.
Singtel
UMS
S-reits

Are some of my dividend machine.
Ramjade
post Aug 24 2018, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 24 2018, 10:06 AM)
how resilient were the S-reits during the 2008 recession?
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Everything drop but those who pick the right stocks are earning double digit dividends.
Ramjade
post Aug 29 2018, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 29 2018, 09:53 AM)
Crash will come, only a matter of timing.
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This I also believe
Ramjade
post Aug 29 2018, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(Luke Skywanker @ Aug 29 2018, 04:51 PM)
I don't get this sentence.
you mean:
Bursa will suffer in the next bull run
Bursa was not affected in the last bull run
Bursa will not be affected by US bull run

or what? ayam konpius
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Bursa won't be able to join the US bull run party.
Ramjade
post Oct 2 2018, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Oct 2 2018, 05:09 PM)
I mean I am interested to know how retail investor like yourself react to the scenario in anticipation of a market crash...

My opinion is that when the market really crash, it is without warning regardless of criteria you set for yourself.
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Market can crash so just prepare bucket load of cash to scoop up good stocks. Don't chase stocks which price have ran away.
Ramjade
post Oct 3 2018, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 3 2018, 09:59 AM)
For the ones most likely to suffer a big drop (say >40%), selling them early will generate a bigger cash bucket for later use.

Some may recover later but why waste the x years for it just to break even?

cry.gif  vmad.gif  bangwall.gif
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For me very simple. I see things expensive, I won't buy. I will just seat on cash and let my own stocks continue generating dividends.
Ramjade
post Oct 29 2018, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 29 2018, 12:31 PM)
For my learning, why ride it out strategy?

Not that cyclic, will drop by only x%, takes only y years to recover, hard to get in later, losses too small, extra expenses in selling and buying, etc etc?

Thanks.
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You can ride it out if you buy low enough. Provide you some comfort level when stocks are falling as you are still in the green.

Ride it out as you continue to earn dividends regardless of the market. Dividend reduced but you still get paid.

That's my understanding of what he meant.
Ramjade
post Oct 29 2018, 04:00 PM

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I will share some
*** I also don't need that money but I do not want to see the value dropping by half like it happened in 2008 recession. So prefer to take it out to and park it in FD etc though the return will be lower. Growing at a slower rate is preferred than loosing half its value.
A: I welcome correction as it allows me to pick good stocks at good price. That's why I kena bash in FSM thread as I was celebrating the recent down time. If you cannot tahan seeing the value dropping, have to go for super save investment
1) FD (totally no)
2) ASNB FP
3) EPF
With this 3, you won't get heartsick no matter what happen to the market. Sometimes not getting heart sick is better. Take your time to keep cash and equivalent when things are expensive. Don't get FOMO.

Losing half it's value and not selling won't incur anything. Only if you use margin or someone force you to sell then yeah you have lock in your losses. An investor is his worst enemy.

*** I assume you meant the dividends from that shares. But won't the dividend be less during recession? Double jeopardy - reduced share price and reduced dividend?
*** If you sell before the crash, won't you have more bullets for your safari hunting after the crash? Ya ya, only if the crash happens!
A: Dividends may/may not drop depending on recession. Why do I say that? Solid companies like Nestlé, TnB won't go away in a recession. Rain or shine, people still need to eat, use electricity. That's defensive investing. If a company is only paying out <50% of the cash, dividends are more ear less assured. Just won't grow. Price drop allows me to accumulate more shares at cheap price to get more dividends.

You won't know when crash will come. You can only prepare for it by keeping cash and buying at low price. So if a crash comes along, you are prepared with cash. If you had FOMO and give chase, then you can only seat and watch sadly. Having a boatload of cash can be a good thing in times of crash (remember I am not saying bucketliad but boatload) That's why I keep cash when there's nothing to buy. So what kena eat by inflation? Inflation is slower than what I can pick up in a crash.

*** You must have done a lot of homework in that shares to have such faith in them! Ha. But companies are like any other things, they can change, some for the better and some for the worse.
A: you need to analyse your companies and make sure they can continue paying you.

Moral of my story
1. Keep cash when market is expensive. Don't FOMO. Is worth keeping cars.
2. Don't be afraid of crash. Welcome with open arms. S
3. Invest in good companies with payout of say 40-70% dividends is one criteria.
4. Invest in companies with increasing DPU
5. Invest in companies which manage to profit during 2008-2009. For those companies are more or less survivors
6. Invest in defensive companies.
Ramjade
post Nov 1 2018, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 1 2018, 11:29 AM)
***  It goes down by half, let it recovers after x years. I still cannot understand why is that a good strategy. Get out early and park the money somewhere first. If that company is really good, then get in again on recovery. Maybe it is easy to say but hard to do. I will be doing that soon (minus the buying on recovery). Ha.
*** See my comment above.
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How sure are you can buy back at the bottom? Will the price comes back to original price? Possible but unlikely. Some stocks never come back to their original price.
Ramjade
post Dec 3 2018, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Dec 3 2018, 08:10 AM)
alright.

US agree to stop the 0119 tariff.

so what now... has the recession actually came but we don't realize it?

or yet to come?

but for me. the recession must come. headache owh
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Nothing to be happy. 90 days je. Then expect china/asia Pacific to fall again
Ramjade
post Jul 17 2022, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 17 2022, 01:40 PM)
Heard about DCA in the early years when I was into unit trusts but did not practice it.

Mind sharing why you think DCA is the way to go? Maybe I overlooked something important. Thanks.

To me, it is a sales invention by the UT industry to generate sales (and thus commissions for the agents) every month. They don't have to do much and get monthly commissions. Good job. UT agents, please don't launch nuclear missiles at me. Read a few books where the authors are anti DCA.

Yes, I have seen graphs illustrating the positive gains from using DCA. It works in some cases. But I feel it is better to just stop buying, and save the money till you see a "confirmed" uptrend. Then you will get a lot more at a cheaper price. No one can predict where is the dip bottom. But with some study, it is possible to gauge with some certainty where it has turned for the better. A combination of moving average, Bollinger band, Coppock curve, RSI, etc., etc. Of course, nothing is 100% certain. If WW3 breaks out after the uptrend has started, 99% of the shares will head south.

My 2 cents (which is worth less now with increases in prices).
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I give you a modified version. Buy more when things are on sale or buy lesser or don't buy when things are expensive. That way overtime you get the average. You can never get the lowest point unless you have some fantastic algorithm. But get low enough is good enough.

 

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