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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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[Ancient]-XinG-
post Oct 9 2018, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 9 2018, 12:56 PM)
Instead of selling before the crash or at the highest price, what about shortly after the crash?

Let me finish my Scene 3 graph.
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actually depend on how much you gain. If the crash is strong enough to cancelled out your gain..... that's bad...
markedestiny
post Oct 9 2018, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 9 2018, 10:26 AM)
On average a drop of 20-30% during downturn is "normal", considered that the market has been going up almost non-drop for the last 10 years or so (for US market).

2007 is "whooping" event, that generally may only occur once of twice in one's investment life time.

Even with such history of "plunging", S&P still chunk out handsome gain over the long term, it just indicated long term investment works, provided one invested in right stocks and discipline throughout.
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Yes, over long term in the long run, S&P can regain its loss but like Ramjade, I rather be in cash position than to stay invested and wait out/tied up during the the downturn rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Oct 9 2018, 01:57 PM
markedestiny
post Oct 9 2018, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 9 2018, 10:05 AM)
2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision  biggrin.gif
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There's another strategy which I have mentioned earlier, sell 60% first to secure at least 60% of your holdings and for the balance 40%, assess the market situation from time to time.
saikia2046
post Oct 9 2018, 01:56 PM

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put money in FD is the worst choice. take the money and wait for the durian drop better.
markedestiny
post Oct 9 2018, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 9 2018, 12:56 PM)
Instead of selling before the crash or at the highest price, what about shortly after the crash?

Let me finish my Scene 3 graph.
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If shortly after the market crashed, which is usually very sudden and abrupt, would you be fast enough to exit and cut loss by then? smile.gif

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Oct 9 2018, 01:57 PM
TSplumberly
post Oct 9 2018, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Oct 9 2018, 01:56 PM)
If shortly after the market crashed, which is usually very sudden and abrupt, would you be fast enough to exit and cut loss  by then?  smile.gif
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Best thing to do is to look at the companies you have invested, see how fast they responded to past crisis. It will not be perfect science but that should be a good guide on how fast each responded to crisis.

Dont time it down to the day or cent.

Also, use 2-3 other parameters to help in gauging whether something is going wrong globally (eg SP 500, copper price, KLCI).

Cheerio.


markedestiny
post Oct 9 2018, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Oct 9 2018, 02:08 PM)
Best thing to do is to look at the companies you have invested, see how fast they responded to past crisis. It will not be perfect science but that should be a good guide on how fast each responded to crisis.

Dont time it down to the day or cent.

Also, use 2-3 other parameters to help in gauging whether something is going wrong globally (eg SP 500, copper price, KLCI).

Cheerio.
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I don't hold a lot of shares as I was only starting out recently, so it is easier for me to come to decision to exit from the market in anticipation of crash. Once sold, I don't want to regret the decision, there's always another day to buy back in future (after market recovery, of course) biggrin.gif
TSplumberly
post Oct 9 2018, 04:34 PM

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Attached Image

Compromise between sell highest buy lowest (scene 2) and taking the full impact (scene 1).

Best is explore whether you can apply this idea on the shares you have bought. Some are rather non cyclical and this idea is of no use.

In the mist of bad economy, when to sell, when to sell, when to sell?

Maybe use Bollinger, RSI etc together to guide you. Don't use the preset Bollinger, RSI etc settings for all your companies. Need to play around with the settings for each company so that they will show you what you want to see. Ha.

May the LUCK be with you!

And me TOO!

biggrin.gif rclxms.gif rclxm9.gif thumbup.gif whistling.gif thumbsup.gif


GenY
post Oct 9 2018, 06:58 PM

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My bold prediction is that this is a major (and particularly nasty and long) correction. Once the trade war crap settles, the bull will return and will continue for some time.

China and HK markets (and some of their blue chips) already down 20-30%. Some of the smalls and mid caps already down 50%.
icemanfx
post Oct 10 2018, 08:06 AM

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Historically, price crashed from bull run or price bubble. What is bubble? Do we have a bubble on hand? Is the stock market overpriced? Is current profits growth sustainable? How will fed rate rise impact stock market? What will likely trigger the crash? Tsla? Some stocks price are currently over 10% lower than peak. Will they drop more? Has the market priced in trade war rout, fed rate rise?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 10 2018, 10:18 AM
markedestiny
post Oct 12 2018, 09:47 AM

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Mini meltdown in the US stocks since Wednesday, is this the start to bigger crash or just another 'traditional' black october occurence...any thoughts?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia
Fortezan
post Oct 12 2018, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Oct 12 2018, 09:47 AM)
Mini meltdown in the US stocks since Wednesday, is this the start to bigger crash or just another 'traditional' black october occurence...any thoughts?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia
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Truth is nobody knows, those who believe this is just a correction would have collected yesterday and tell you to do the same in hope that price can be pushed higher, those who believe a major crash is coming would tell you to save your bullets in hope that price can drop further for them to collect at a bargain
icemanfx
post Oct 12 2018, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Fortezan @ Oct 12 2018, 04:35 PM)
Truth is nobody knows, those who believe this is just a correction would have collected yesterday and tell you to do the same in hope that price can be pushed higher, those who believe a major crash is coming would tell you to save your bullets in hope that price can drop further for them to collect at a bargain
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The market is on random walk in the short term.

enkil
post Oct 12 2018, 06:43 PM

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scary market
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Oct 12 2018, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Oct 12 2018, 09:47 AM)
Mini meltdown in the US stocks since Wednesday, is this the start to bigger crash or just another 'traditional' black october occurence...any thoughts?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia
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QUOTE(Fortezan @ Oct 12 2018, 04:35 PM)
Truth is nobody knows, those who believe this is just a correction would have collected yesterday and tell you to do the same in hope that price can be pushed higher, those who believe a major crash is coming would tell you to save your bullets in hope that price can drop further for them to collect at a bargain
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no idea... but I am rally tired of this. Crash just crash la...

Still remember Last FEB? Almost same and rebound.

Just hope this time around dead cat bounce and the true correction can go on for Q4.
icemanfx
post Oct 12 2018, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Oct 12 2018, 07:08 PM)
no idea... but I am rally tired of this. Crash just crash la...

Still remember Last FEB? Almost same and rebound.

Just hope this time around dead cat bounce and the true correction can go on for Q4.
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What fundamental has changed since 1, 3 or 12 months ago?

Hansel
post Oct 17 2018, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 12 2018, 11:51 PM)
What fundamental has changed since 1, 3 or 12 months ago?
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Good thread here,....

To reply to Iceman in the above question,...

1) Fed rates have moved higher.
2) Trump Tariffs onto China have become more more.

Opinions ??
icemanfx
post Oct 17 2018, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 17 2018, 01:05 PM)
Good thread here,....

To reply to Iceman in the above question,...

1) Fed rates have moved higher.
2) Trump Tariffs onto China have become more more.

Opinions ??
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The impact? How much income is trimmed?
learn2earn8
post Oct 22 2018, 04:44 PM

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there are those with good FA and their TA at support level, any breakout would depends on earnings results

Attached Image Attached Image

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stoc...le-50-day-line/

Dow Jones Futures: More Leaders Break Support In Stock Market Correction

ED CARSON11:54 PM ET

Dow Jones futures rose slightly Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. It's still a stock market correction. The major averages closed last week little changed — the Dow Jones rose, the S&P 500 index was virtually flat and the Nasdaq composite edged lower — after promising gains early in the week. Worse, more growth stocks fell below key support areas. Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Match Group (MTCH), Ross Stores (ROST) and TJX Cos. (TJX) all fell below their 50-day lines by Friday's close.

The 50-day moving average is a key technical level. Top stocks often find support here, as mutual funds and other big investors step in to buy shares. While it's OK for a leading stock to dip below the 50-day line for a short span, you want to see it rebound soon. But in a stock market correction, most tickers will struggle, with growth names often falling further.

Stock Market Correction Is A Time To Watch
The lesson is clear. It is very hard to make money in a stock market correction, even during a rally attempt. During a stock market correction, build your watchlists. Wait until a follow-through day confirms a rally attempt. Watch for leading stocks, some of which should be on your watchlists, break out into buy zones.

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Boeing stock and TJX stock had avoided closing below their 50-day lines until Friday. Boeing, TJX, Ross stock and Apple stock, which nudged higher Friday, aren't far below that are. But AMD stock had held near its 50-day for several sessions, before crashing 11% Friday. Match stock skidded 6.4% Friday. Activision stock tumbled through its 50-day and 200-day lines on Thursday, then kept falling Friday.

Mind you, these are growth stocks that had been generally holding up better than most of their peers. Their relative strength lines, which track a stock's performance vs. the S&P 500 index, are near record highs, aside from Activision.

Most 95+ Composite Rating Stocks Below 50-Day Line
All of those stocks, except for Activision, have IBD Composite Ratings of 95 or better. Apple stock and AMD stock boast best-possible 99 Composite Ratings. The Composite Rating combines several IBD proprietary ratings into a single score. All-time stock winners often have Composite Ratings of at least 95 near the start of their big runs.

Looking ahead to the coming week, there are 28 stocks with 95-plus Composite Ratings reporting earnings. They include Boeing stock and AMD stock, along with Amazon (AMZN), Centene (CNC), Visa (V), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), WWE (WWE) and many more. But just four are currently above their 50-day moving averages: iQvia (IQV), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Aon (AOC) and Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN).

Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures rose less than 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.25% vs. fair value. Remember that Dow futures, Apple stock and other overnight action don't necessarily translate in actual trading in the next regular session.

That's been especially true during the stock market correction, with the major averages whipsawing during regular trading and sometimes overnight.

China's Shanghai composite jumped 4.2% intraday.

Attached Image Attached Image
ChAOoz
post Oct 26 2018, 12:27 PM

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Ray Dalio market cycle template is pretty good to understand which economic cycles we are in at the moment.

As nobody can really timed exactly a market crash, you can try to be defensive while still having money on the table by buying into stable dividend yielding stocks or relatively medium risk bonds or FD.

China still has pretty big risk, and it's future deleveraging may pull all other asian country into it's mix.

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