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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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tehoice
post Aug 23 2018, 12:58 PM

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agree with cherroy.

if you think the holdings you have is undervalue, you may hold on to it.

if you think the stocks have fully valued, then by all means exit

no one can time it so perfectly i guess. but it's always good to have spare cash around.

cash is always king?
tehoice
post Aug 23 2018, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 23 2018, 11:12 AM)
More like a scared rookie investor lah. Ha.
Global crash affecting 99% of the industries & countries.
Good question but hard to answer.
I do not mean to be rude here. Prefer to stick to what I have asked at the start of this thread. If you wish to find out more on your subject, please start another thread. No offence intended. Thanks.
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what do you think of the property market?
just like the sub-prime crisis.

however, many have been talking about the property bubble burst since 2012, it's gonna burst it's gonna burst.
but fast forward 6 years now, none happened, the price psf in KL gone up from RM800 to RM2k now?
tehoice
post Aug 24 2018, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 24 2018, 04:56 PM)
Stock market crash always begin earlier than expected and unexpectedly.

bear phase is after over 20% price drop.
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but the index isn't suggesting bearish market. 20% drop is no where to be seen and let alone the most awaited crash?


tehoice
post Oct 9 2018, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 9 2018, 10:05 AM)
2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision  biggrin.gif
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i think striking a balance between your own portfolio is important,

fixed income position xx%
REIT portfolio xx%
higher risk stocks xx%
your cash position xx%

total 100%.

but you may lower your stocks positions and place more into cash, that way you are able to hedge against whatever correction, but no one can predict 100% accurately right.
tehoice
post Apr 2 2019, 09:57 AM

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since the beginning of this post sinec August last year. Has TS managed to reduce your positions significantly in anticipating the incoming crash?
tehoice
post Apr 2 2019, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 2 2019, 11:19 AM)
What do you think? Ha.

I have sold more than 98% of it in Dec.

Ya, a rookie chicken who should not be in the shares market?

doh.gif  sweat.gif  thumbup.gif
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certain stocks if you hold it from Dec till now, you could have seen another small gains though. cleared positions too early?
tehoice
post Apr 2 2019, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 2 2019, 11:47 AM)
Yes and no, depending on which day you compare with. To me, it is never too early but most of the time, too late.

My decision to go ahead is to avoid the non SWAN, asking myself what should I do when I hear bad news on the global scene and that industry. So desperate? It is part of my retirement fund, so have to be extra careful. Dont mind suffering some losses (on potential future gain) even if the recession comes much later.
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yes, noted on that.
always protect the capital, this is super important too.
tehoice
post Mar 19 2020, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Mar 19 2020, 09:03 AM)
What if a prolong pandemic causes serious financial damages to many SMEs like 1997?
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ride it out....
tehoice
post Apr 9 2020, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 8 2020, 11:39 PM)
I only see green dildos. What happen to recession?
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or do you think the market has already bottomed out? now bull takes over from the bear?
tehoice
post Apr 9 2020, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 9 2020, 09:49 AM)
I don't think Donald Duck will allow the economy to tank. During Dec 2018 when markets panicked, it had a V shaped recovery.

The real impact on financials will probably be seen in Q2 report. But I also believe certain industries will thrive.
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Yeah certain industries will definitely shine.

But given the way how he handle the covid19 pandemic, it doesn't send a very strong signal to the market, where economists and experts are predicting the market to tumble even further beyond the big depression crisis though.

 

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