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I'd be surprised if they did not discuss or take into consideration of the possibility of his impeachment, and yet encouraged investor to look far ahead into 2020

S&P 500 already broken record,  longest bull run since last crash, still can continue? Any good reasons, other than Trumponomics?

As it is, I still think the market is overly optimistic, taking every opportunities to go bullish

Let's see how much the market drops for S&P 500 since post-world war II. 

The last recession 2007 -  a whopping 57% drop.

Source: Moon Capital Management

Looks like the investing world is starting to get smart - not good for people like us !!!!!!!!!!!      

Thanks.

AA
For the small caps, how did they cop in the last recession? Small drops? I thought small caps are volatile in winter season.

BB
Why bearish on oil? I am bearish on oil too. Just curious.

Thanks.

Some years back on the EV impact on O & G industry discussion, a friend raised that petrol/diesel were not the main revenue earners. About 30% on the company I studied. Big, small, no impact?

My gut feel said to seriously study the impact as that is part of my retirement fund.

Last year, saw a TV report on the exponential growth in EV vehicle usage around the world in the coming 10 years. True or not remains to be seen.

A spin-off from this EV thing is the corresponding huge demand for lithium car batteries if EV takes hold. Cobalt, nickel etc will be very good investment should EV story hold true. Unfortunately, major EV players are already securing their holds on the main raw materials (eg China). But keeping my eyes open on ETF related to EV industry.

Cheerio.

Mind sharing the links? Thanks.

My layman's gut feel is a huge dip, mainly due to putting plasters here and there trying to cure a major illness. Plasters here = QE.

New strain of viruses = DT, BREXIT, NKorea, etc

Ha.

So if we are expecting rate cuts, bond funds will be a beneficiary right?

I would look at it like this : this time, the Feds are more attentive to world events, and more sensitive to whatever that is happening in the world, however big or small. Hence, quick actions have been put in place before it's too late. Yes - Feds holding rates also points to weaker economic growth today compared to earlier. But isn't it good that the Feds stops in time ?

In 2008, what happened back then was not something that the Feds could see coming. The subprime crisis happened overnight, and Bear Stearns was the first to start giving bad signals. That was a totally different scenario compared to what we have today. Of course, Feds had the 5% ammo back then - this 5% contributed to the crisis too, besides easy-lending practices and no control over loans back then.

NK contributes sentiment to the financial world - this has been proven many times.

Brexit contributes to problems in The Eurozone, and The Eurozone, as a big economic bloc, influences world financial mkts. This was proven back in 2016 when world mkts drop after the Referendum results, after that victory speech by Nigel (something),.... When the votes were being counted and as we see more and more voters leaning towards separation, world indices dropped lower and lower,...

Financial crisis / stock market correction used to be said happens every 10 years once. Happened in 1987 (October, close to 1988), 1998, 2008. Didn't happen in 2018 and it is now second half of 2019 already. Maybe because human beings has the ability to learn from past mistakes and therefore we are the only species with civilisation

I would say global banking health is at +5 now

Next economic crisis unlikely to be banks. Banks already learnt their lesson.
Last time anyone can simply get a loan. Now there is stringent background checks and improved accounting standards to provide better financial reporting.

For many "investors" and even a famous old man, low PE is a must.

Funny thing is, my two best performing counters in Bursa this one month have high PEs.

Counter R, with PE of about 40, shot up > 50% 1-2 days after I bought it.

Counter P, with PE of about 25, have been unimpressive for 1-2 years. Suddenly, in 1 week, it nearly tripled in price. It's my second best performing counter ever, my top counter was a six bagger HK/China small cap.

To be honest, my positions in all 3 counters are small. And I have many disappointments as well. One can never be sure which one will pleasantly surprise or disappoint.

Time the market is impossible task to do.
If market valuation indeed expensive, just trim down the holding.

Totally clearing up is not advisable (especially one is holding on good quality stock) unless one can hit the timing exactly.

What if clearing up, the market continue to go up 10~20% before the crash?
Eg.
A stock you hold now is 10.00, expect market crash, clear up.
But A still going up to 13.00

1-2 years later, market crash, A stock drop 20%, back to 10.00 level.
You buy back at 10.00, seems gain nothing in the process of 'guessing" the crash timing.

A good stock, even experiencing crash after crash, over the long time, it is still going up and way higher than before.

Having said that, the market is indeed experiencing one of longest bull run in the history due to unprecedented massive QE pumping.

Lockdown Day 1, good morning!

Good videos in there. Thanks.

Fed used up all the ammunition at the wrong time and at the wrong target? Wah.

Interesting concept of FUNDAMENTAL with VALUATION on top, and Fed in between and now the Fed layer is getting smaller.

I don't need to wait till the recession now. The impact now has already exceeded my expectation. As of yesterday, the price has dropped by 56%.

Satisfied with my decision and action. But feeling sad for the unemployed, part timers, struggling business owners, etc. with the growing negative impacts on their cash flow.

Cheerio.

P/S There was a big increase in DJI in the 30 mins before closing last week. Guess it is a common practice everywhere with x, y & z trying to save the index by last-minute buying. This amount of $ involved for DJI will be HUGE.

But 2020 GDP will fall according to the trend PLUS incoming recession? No?

Looking for articles on economic impacts due to SARS and the road to recovery. Please share if you know of any. May not be SARS twin here, still like to learn and be better prepared. Thanks.