Nothing wrong at all. This is called portfolio rebalancing, and it is totally up to an individual based on circumstances.

Trust your own sixth sense

Besides FD, there are capital guaranteed bank products you can go into after you get out of stock market. Lower or zero return of course. So, you can sleep better.

Also consider spreading the tenure of your investment returns. Invest in vehicle with longer period of expected return (property, government/corporate bonds, gold for eg.). These investments may ride you through the turbulent times.

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Aug 23 2018, 03:37 PM

plumberly, you might want to rethink your plan as long as bro iceman thinks stock market will crash....

You may miss out on the continued bull run...

I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...

3 months later, you may be saying you should have trimmed down all in October

2 strategies :

1. Sell everything, take the cash put in something very safe like FD. But return is low. Downside is what if no correction ? Lose out on dividends and low entry price (ie. expensive to buy back later)

2. Expect the correction, hold on to the portfolio for a few years for it to recover. Still receive dividends. Dividends from eg Reits are still better than FD. Upside is if no correction, return is much higher than money in FD. And entry price is preserved (ie. capital gain).

It is a difficult decision

Yes, third strategy middle of the road is a balanced strategy

Me strategy #1

Exited mid 2017. That time put in 15-24 months maturity and overseas property. Some starting to mature and still reinvesting back to safe products....

Because the older I get, the smaller my LP

Percentage dropped in KLCI for the period Aug-23 (when you started this thread) to Dec-7 (2 weeks ago when you sold your shares) is -7.20%

Let's say a person has a portfolio of RM200,000

If sell earlier on Aug-23 instead of Dec-7, the amount "saved" would be RM14,394

Ie. if sell on Aug-23, the amount "saved" should be enough to buy a Nikon Z6 + a Yamaha digital piano....

Which platform are you using ? Which market were you in ?

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Dec 22 2018, 09:09 PM

Happy new year bro !

Yes I agree with you. My calculation is just a rough calculation based on KLCI index, a broad indication of how timing of selling in a falling market would affect the returns of one’s investment

For individuals, it all depends on which individual stocks he owns. I am sure there are a few stocks did not drop, or even gain. Like some reits (IGB for example). Put in dividend or bonus issues, the returns may not be as bad

So, each individual portfolio would perform differently, but broadly, KLCI dropped about -7% for the period.

I am more interested how plumberly buy European stocks. Apparently he doesn’t want to share....but it’s ok. Do you have any idea ?

Yea....

Actually my reply to TS is just hindsight. As you know, hindsight vision is 20/20

No one could time the market. All about luck.

Questions every investor would ask, and wish he has the answers

Only god knows the answer, assuming god can time travel

Since nobody is god here, at the end of every debate, there would be no answer. All answers are "horse behind cannon"

I would go along with "gut feeling". When you have the strongest feeling to sell or buy, don't resist. Do what your inner most tells you what to do.

Because if I want to die, I prefer to die in my own hands. Nobody else to blame.

In my investment life, I have never bought at the bottom, or sell at the top. All of the time after buy, the stock drops, and after sell, the stock up

Those who brag at mamak stall which stock which stock buy at bottom sell at top we all know he BS

I believe gut feeling is because I believe a person's life is determined by his own character.

Since character is born with the person, so his gut feeling will determine his success or failure.

If a person's character is very strong and confident, and do his own analysis and then decides what to do with his investment. That will determine his returns.

If a person's character is weak, undecisive and always need other people's input, then he probably won't trust his own analysis. He will listen to what other people say.

In the instance of this thread, those who are decisive and sell earlier would "gain" more (or lose less)

Both character will have different outcome. Both also depends on "gut feeling" (the lack of for the weak person)

Thanks !

Your way a lot of hardwork and tension leh.....

Over analysing may affect your decision...

命里有时终须有，命里无时莫强求

All things, although still pending, looks a lot clearer they will be solved soon.

Maybe left with china’s debt. I will stay out of China related counters for now

No need for clarification actually. When you have taken a position, of course you hope you are right and profit from your action. Human nature.

Where do you park your money currently ? If your cash is idling, you will have more reason to search crash news high and low every day. In fact you may shut yourself to the markets which are still stubbornly high to justify your stance.

It's a matter of opinion. Different people got different opinion.

I think after the 2008 financial crisis, governments and reserve banks are more experienced and have precedents to refer to. They also learnt what effective policies that can be deployed to tackle in advance problems that may likely to develop. So, it is less likely financial crisis the magnitude of the GFC happens again in such short time. Maybe 30 years later as human beings are forgetful and always greedy. But that would be caused by another new factor

Same like the Great market crash 1929 (where information flowed too slow) and Black Monday 1987 (where (mis)information flowed too quickly), the same cause is not likely to happened again as stock exchanges around the world have put in place more efficient flow of information. If crash happens again, it would be another factor.

Financial crisis / stock market correction used to be said happens every 10 years once. Happened in 1987 (October, close to 1988), 1998, 2008. Didn't happen in 2018 and it is now second half of 2019 already. Maybe because human beings has the ability to learn from past mistakes and therefore we are the only species with civilisation

I would say global banking health is at +5 now

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Jul 10 2019, 09:56 AM

No insight at all, just my personal opinion

Based on my limited reading, Deutsche bank’s problem is internal business decisions and directions (high risk appetite) the management took, which landed them in such predicament now. It does not happen overnight, but years of business strategy which turned bad. I would equate it to the likes of Nokia and Kodak, the downfall which was a result of series of bad management decisions.

The health of banking system depends more on the structural integrity of the whole industry, which is the collective responsibilities of the different governments.

The collapse of Lehman Bros (and a few others) was mainly due to sub-prime loans, which at that time was not regulated by US banking regulators. The whole financial industry were involved, even affected outside of USA as the banks packaged it and re-sold the sub-prime loans overseas.

So I think Duetsche Bank’s case, which is a result of bad internal management decisions, could not be compared to Lehman Bros. collapse