Bursa won't be able to join the US bull run party.

Good point, I'm staying invested but very cautiously monitoring

S&P 500 already broken record, longest bull run since last crash, still can continue? Any good reasons, other than Trumponomics?

As it is, I still think the market is overly optimistic, taking every opportunities to go bullish

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Aug 29 2018, 05:33 PM

The USD strength, and previous QE money around the globe that flowing back to US + tax cut money + dovish Fed, that resulted the bull keep on charging.

Based on history (which repeating many times) market won't tumbled if they were not making new high.
So you need the market keep on going up a steep rate, before it can tumble.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 30 2018, 09:45 AM

So what's your strategy, will you keep investing to ride the new high?

No feedback/comment on my overview? Tolong lah.

Updated one as below. As of now, tempted with 70% probability to sell 90-95% of the shares, keeping some for sentimental reason. Ha.

Everyone's risks appetite is different and assess risks differently.

Since you have made up your mind, need not ask strangers for opinion.

Noted and thanks.

If I sell, it will be a big deviation from my original retirement plan. To minimise me overlooking important factors and thus making the wrong decision, I then asked here for inputs for me to consider as there are many friends here more knowledgeable on the subject than me.

I do not know what I do not know. So ...

Eg I was planning to get 2 new tyres and put them on the front. More tear and wear on the front tyres. So the better ones should be at the front. Learnt from a friend that new tyres should be at the rear. Why? Easier for the car to go into hydroplaning at the rear if the new ones are at the front. Best to watch this video. Put new tyres at the rear to maximise control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa9hzcjdi5Q

Sorry for the off topic here.

It is your money. If your analysis is correct, you funds is protected. If your gut feeling is wrong, you only made less. You can treat "lost gain if any" as insurance or hedging premium.

On the other hand, stocks is liquid, you could sell in a instant. Offload all when the time comes.

Placing new tires on the front is widely practice but inappropriate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 3 2018, 12:29 AM

I've read an article which shares your dilemma but not able to search back the article. Sorry, not able to provide the link.

The scenario is exactly like yours, in expectation of market downturn and when to sell...sell too early, you missed out the gains when the stocks in hand continue to grow; or sell too late, you get caught with your bag of holdings plunging downward.

The writer suggested to get around this, sell 60% of your portfolio and with balance 40%, continue to assess the market situation until you ar sure and confident of your decision, whether to sell all or continue to hold and assess market condition.

Whether or not, this make sense to you, do evaluate your risk appetite and decides for yourself how you want to proceed...your call at the end of the day.

Thanks.

If you happened to find the article, please share with me. Interested to have a read.

I think I read something similar in Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by VK Tharp. What I got from that book is, determine what is the price to buy AND what is the price to sell BEFORE you buy! Ha.

Cheerio.

I get this funny feeling it going to be black october and I start to sell off my stock even when it climbing up like MyEG. I did try to install metastock to predict but my feeling not good. Will be looking at the gold investment account from the bank as alternative as I scare of currency drop like Indonesia.

They say Sept is the worst performing month in the global stock market. Please don't take that as the bible truth. Ha. I wonder how many of the past recessions started in Sept.

Not trying to add fuel to the recession is coming fire, ok? Ha.

I am now P90 in selling my shares. Question now is when?

Plan is to monitor the shares:
* sales
* debt
* cash flow
* revenue
* dividend
* intrinsic value
* etc

and sell if one of the above goes out of the norm (on the negative side).

If the above are all OK, then sell when the price drops by more than -2 * std deviation (40 days).

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Sep 6 2018, 04:09 PM

Ha ha.

Got something in mind. Let me prepare some graphs for sharing later on why I prefer to get out before the crash.

so everybody successfully trim down your holding? Recent bear is quite fierce

Quite alot of criteria to consider and monitor

What is your position now?

Yes, too many to keep my eyes on. Only on dividends and price at the moment.

Got the -2*SD graphs in place now. Waiting for the day to jump out! Ha.

Please don't come back and lecture me that no one can time the market. I am not trying to time the market. Just want to know when there are strong signs that the company is not doing well and better get out then.

Cheerio.

I have taken interest in your scenario given that most retail investor would have the need to act, regardless of the timing.
Will follow your update from time to time.

You are breaking my no 1 rule, do not blindly follow others. Ha.

Instead of using Excel to do the 2SD monitoring, can use Bollinger chart in most stock software. Don't use one indicator in your decision making. Use at least 2 independent indicators.

Eg
* the sun rises
* now it is bright
then the 2 criteria are met! Not really, one follows the other.

Same with price indicators. So beware!

Cheerio.

I mean I am interested to know how retail investor like yourself react to the scenario in anticipation of a market crash...

My opinion is that when the market really crash, it is without warning regardless of criteria you set for yourself.