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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Showtime747
post Aug 29 2018, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 24 2018, 04:56 PM)
Stock market crash always begin earlier than expected and unexpectedly.

bear phase is after over 20% price drop.
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plumberly, you might want to rethink your plan as long as bro iceman thinks stock market will crash....

You may miss out on the continued bull run...
askingquestion
post Aug 29 2018, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 29 2018, 09:14 AM)
If dt is impeached, president pence may be more market friendly, stock price could rally instead.
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It will crash first before the rally laugh.gif
HonMun
post Aug 29 2018, 09:45 AM

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No matter who win or lose.
Most important, can survive during crash.
TSplumberly
post Aug 29 2018, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 29 2018, 09:29 AM)
plumberly, you might want to rethink your plan as long as bro iceman thinks stock market will crash....

You may miss out on the continued bull run...
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Thanks.

Any money back guarantee? Ha.

Crash will come, only a matter of timing.


TSplumberly
post Aug 29 2018, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 24 2018, 02:48 PM)

For me I am betting there is one more bull coming (the most crazy bull run ever)....but with bearish view with a lot of trade war issue it probably takes another 1 -2 years before it comes.


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Concur with you on 2 counts (maybe we have been reading or watching the same contents on the net? Ha.)

AA
Last 5th Elliot wave step to come before the crash.

BB
One study suggested mid 2019 - mid 2020 for the crash (cant recall the exact months now).

Dont get me wrong, I am not trying to time the crash down to the day/week/month. If you know a storm is coming, it is better to plan ahead.

Cheerio.
Ramjade
post Aug 29 2018, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 29 2018, 09:53 AM)
Crash will come, only a matter of timing.
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This I also believe
foofoosasa
post Aug 29 2018, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 29 2018, 09:59 AM)
Concur with you on 2 counts (maybe we have been reading or watching the same contents on the net? Ha.)

AA
Last 5th Elliot wave step to come before the crash.

BB
One study suggested mid 2019 - mid 2020 for the crash (cant recall the exact months now).

Dont get me wrong, I am not trying to time the crash down to the day/week/month. If you know a storm is coming, it is better to plan ahead.

Cheerio.
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Then u shouldn't sell all laugh.gif tongue.gif

maybe keep 60% stocks , 40% cash lorr... ( slowly reduce once your stock up )

I still very optimistic on market I dunno why.

I don't watch those content at all, my gut feeling tell me LOL.

we might enter prolong long bear market ( drop 30% from all high time and it will continue for many months ) , but I still don't see

market crash yet.

See how this trade war game turn out to be, I expect it will be dissolved in coming months and panic buying mode is coming. Market

expect there will be another talk on sept if trade still couldn't resolve then we probably will go into deeper bear mode.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 29 2018, 10:15 AM
markedestiny
post Aug 29 2018, 10:37 AM

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I am newbie, just started investing on stock few months back. Being inexperience, I have read up why the previous stock market crashes happened so that I would be caution not to be the one with the bag down along with the plunge

Currently, the market is too optimistic, taking every opportunities to rally and bull even with the slightest hint of easing of trade war tensions, turkey currency meltdown, etc. The previous crashes happened in the midst of positive sentiments and confidence that the market is all good

TSplumberly
post Aug 29 2018, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 29 2018, 10:37 AM)
I am newbie,  just started investing on stock few months back. Being inexperience, I have read up why the previous stock market crashes happened so that I  would be caution not to be the one with the bag down along with the plunge

Currently, the market is too optimistic, taking every opportunities to rally and bull even with the slightest hint of easing of trade war tensions, turkey currency meltdown, etc.  The previous crashes happened in the midst of positive sentiments and confidence that the market is all good
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My 2 cents ...

My personal view is, it is just not the right timing for a beginner to try the stock market near the end of the cycle when most companies are overvalued. The good sifus here can still make money regardless of the market.

Park your money in a safer place (like FD, ASX etc) first.

After the crash, then use the money to get some fair companies at wonderful prices. Study some companies now and get them when the prices are right after the crash.

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Aug 29 2018, 10:48 AM
TSplumberly
post Aug 29 2018, 11:22 AM

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First, my apology to those who feel I am over doing this.

The amount is a quite a big amount (to me). I prefer to think this through and then make a decision. Even if later it did not turn out the way I wanted, at least I have done an analysis and I will live with my decision.

Thinking aloud on the 4 stages, what are the positive and negatives possible outcomes as summarised in the table.

Appreciate your view, additions, etc. Thanks.

P/S No, I will not be buying that shares after the crash even if the price is low. As I said earlier, the future for that industry will be challenging due to the move to electric vehicles.

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Showtime747
post Aug 29 2018, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 29 2018, 09:53 AM)
Thanks.

Any money back guarantee? Ha.

Crash will come, only a matter of timing.
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I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year biggrin.gif

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side biggrin.gif

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...
markedestiny
post Aug 29 2018, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 29 2018, 10:47 AM)
My 2 cents ...

My personal view is, it is just not the right timing for a beginner to try the stock market near the end of the cycle when most companies are overvalued. The good sifus here can still make money regardless of the market.

Park your money in a safer place (like FD, ASX etc) first.

After the crash, then use the money to get some fair companies at wonderful prices. Study some companies now and get them when the prices are right after the crash.

Cheerio.
*
I have invested in some shares with PE <10, EPS >15 (value investing) despite my initial intention to keep longer term, have sold off all last month for small profit, keeping only REITs.

I usually read news and article from US/world market for head ups.
markedestiny
post Aug 29 2018, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 29 2018, 11:44 AM)
I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year  biggrin.gif

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side  biggrin.gif

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...
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So you are the one forumer who exited from the market mid last year, whom I can't recall the nick as I always wanted to ask you why the exit.

2017 was a good year for most investors as compared to this year which is very much volatile...too bad i didn't get started last year

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Aug 29 2018, 02:21 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 29 2018, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 29 2018, 09:29 AM)
plumberly, you might want to rethink your plan as long as bro iceman thinks stock market will crash....

You may miss out on the continued bull run...
*
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 29 2018, 11:44 AM)
I was in your same thought 1 year earlier. And I moved my money out of stock market since mid-last year  biggrin.gif

The market continued to increase, until recently, the stock market backed down.

Stock market has been giving me double digit return before 2018 (div + cap appreciation). I think I would have made double digit this year should I remain in stock market.

But investment is all about risk and return and comfort. Now that my return is much lower (4-6%), but much safer (mostly capital guaranteed). I am now a spectator from the ring side  biggrin.gif

Trust your own instinct and prepare to accept lower return if you are risk averse.

Great thread you started as most threads here are about how to invest, which stock to buy etc. Its an alternative view and reminding people things may go wrong...
*
Fortezan
post Aug 29 2018, 02:25 PM

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Just a sharing from a global economy outlook workshop organized by a brokerage firm which I attended. According to their panel of speakers, most of them are of the opinion that this bull run will continue at least until the next US presidential election in 2020, reason being DT will do everything in his power to keep the US economy in good shape so that he can get re-elected for the 2nd term. After that, be very careful, the mother of all crash is coming
markedestiny
post Aug 29 2018, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(Fortezan @ Aug 29 2018, 02:25 PM)
Just a sharing from a global economy outlook workshop organized by a brokerage firm which I attended. According to their panel of speakers, most of them are of the opinion that this bull run will continue at least until the next US presidential election in 2020, reason being DT will do everything in his power to keep the US economy in good shape so that he can get re-elected for the 2nd term. After that, be very careful, the mother of all crash is coming
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I'd be surprised if they did not discuss or take into consideration of the possibility of his impeachment, and yet encouraged investor to look far ahead into 2020
cherroy
post Aug 29 2018, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 29 2018, 02:37 PM)
I'd be surprised if they did not discuss or take into consideration of the possibility of his impeachment, and yet encouraged investor to look far ahead into 2020
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The impeachment is unlikely or very low possibility only.

Also US market is mature enough that the market generally won't be affected greatly by who is the president, as long as the economy is growing (which is red hot currently for US), and corporate earning is good, and interest rate is subdued.

The interest rate situation has more risk than impeachment.
Should pay more attention to the flatten yield curve, it may give more indication how market may behave.

foofoosasa
post Aug 29 2018, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(Fortezan @ Aug 29 2018, 02:25 PM)
Just a sharing from a global economy outlook workshop organized by a brokerage firm which I attended. According to their panel of speakers, most of them are of the opinion that this bull run will continue at least until the next US presidential election in 2020, reason being DT will do everything in his power to keep the US economy in good shape so that he can get re-elected for the 2nd term. After that, be very careful, the mother of all crash is coming
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don't confuse it with Bursa.

Seriously I don't see bursa will enjoy the last bull run. ( In my opinion )





Fortezan
post Aug 29 2018, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 29 2018, 02:37 PM)
I'd be surprised if they did not discuss or take into consideration of the possibility of his impeachment, and yet encouraged investor to look far ahead into 2020
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Like the trade war, whether the impeachment will be successful is still anyone's guess, but most signs are still showing a continuing bull run. 2020 is not that far ahead either, you'll probably have around 2 years to make the most out of this bull
Fortezan
post Aug 29 2018, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 29 2018, 04:37 PM)
don't confuse it with Bursa.

Seriously I don't see bursa will enjoy the last bull run. ( In my opinion )
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I'm not, forgot to mention, they are actually encouraging investors to invest in US stocks and ETF

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