US QE fueled worldwide assets inflation; similarly, these bull run slowed or ended with qe. shrinking of u.s fed balance sheet will likely have similar profound effects. erratic and unconventional behaviour of dt will likely add uncertainty and confusion during next crisis.

as no economic recession is the same, next will be from unconventional, non-traditional or unexpected sector.

Concur with you on 2 counts (maybe we have been reading or watching the same contents on the net? Ha.)

AA
Last 5th Elliot wave step to come before the crash.

BB
One study suggested mid 2019 - mid 2020 for the crash (cant recall the exact months now).

Dont get me wrong, I am not trying to time the crash down to the day/week/month. If you know a storm is coming, it is better to plan ahead.

Cheerio.

Just a sharing from a global economy outlook workshop organized by a brokerage firm which I attended. According to their panel of speakers, most of them are of the opinion that this bull run will continue at least until the next US presidential election in 2020, reason being DT will do everything in his power to keep the US economy in good shape so that he can get re-elected for the 2nd term. After that, be very careful, the mother of all crash is coming

Investors need to distinguish between a recession and a full blown crisis. What global markets are expecting is a recession, as in contracting economic growth. Corporate profits will shrink but business goes on as usual. Central banks and governments will act to stimulate growth by lowering interest rates and spending more, leading to normalisation of growth. Stock markets may dip in line with contracting profits, but nothing major. Several countries like Germany are already at this point, with the economy contracting in Q4 of 2018. If it contracts again this quarter, this qualifies for a recession but markets are not making a big deal over this.

On the other hand, a crisis involves more than just contracting GDP growth. It involves the messy unravelling of the financial system due to loss of faith in the banks and other institutions. This is usually triggered by the bursting of some asset bubbles, and the failing of central banks to act in preventing the domino effect. Everyone just dumps anything except cash and solid bonds. We saw that in the US in 2008 and Asia in 1997. In this scenario a major bear market is likely.

At this point, which is more likely? Are there any significant asset bubbles that will burst? If yes, how will central banks react? Do we expect them to do nothing until banks fail?

So far, stocks are not showing any bubble like valuations. Property prices are high, but central banks are very careful to not cause a collapse. The only bubble that I can think of that has burst is the crypto space, which had little impact on financial systems fortunately.

Since this thread is focused on a crash, what do you guys think will trigger it? Just an open ended question to think.

don't confuse it with Bursa.

Seriously I don't see bursa will enjoy the last bull run. ( In my opinion )

New principle added to my investment dictionary.

According to some regulatory reports, next financial or economic crisis will likely trigger by fed rate rise and impact could be more widely than previous crisis.

De-gearing is a common sense going forward.

Food/wine for thought ...

Do you think it will:
* get worse
* get better
* stay the same?

You decide and then take action.

Yes, it depends on your expectation, risk appetite, current/medium/long term cash flow requirements, etc etc etc.

For me, as you know, I have chickened out! Ha.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/0...spring-meetings

But just like nature, the global economy is also currently quite uncertain. As I said a year ago, we were talking about synchronized growth. And 75 percent of the global economy was going through that phase. As you heard a couple of days ago, we are now talking about a synchronized slowdown by 70 percent of the global economy. So our forecast for growth this year is 3.3 percent, going back up, we hope, in 2020, based on our forecast, to 3.6 percent. But we contend that we are at a delicate moment. And this expected rebound, from 3.3 in 2019 to 3.6 in 2020, is precarious and is subject to downside risks, ranging from unresolved trade tensions, high debt in some sectors and countries, both public and corporate, to the risk of weaker‑than‑expected growth in some stressed economies, and, of course, the consequences of whatever Brexit will be.

70% of the 195 nations? Or 70% of the total economy volume?

Wonder which are the other 30% nations?

Yea man ! SP500 touch 3000 for the first time. Wanted to sell my AMZN shares before G20 meeting, glad I didn't

I think cant go wrong with FANG, been holding since 750s, bought 1 more share at 1700.

Let's see how it plays out during earnings in a couple of weeks

Yes, finally the bear has come to the US market, (and such an angry bear!). Other markets surely will be hurt tomorrow as well.

More downside is likely, but nevertheless, the current levels has triggered my "deploy those cash time" and I will go in several batches over the next weeks/months.

However, the problem now is that, looking at the carnage now, Im spoilt for choices. Should I buy S&P500, Europe, STI, KLSE, HSCEI, OnG, All are pretty low now. But funds are finite.

Appreciate some thoughts.

Mind sharing why the USA and no Bursa? Thought there are some good growth counters in bursa (10-20% pa).

The USA counters are more than x2 better than these good bursa counters?

Must be at least 2 times better for me to switch completely out.

Or partly to gain from the US-RM currency gains?

Thanks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-warn...-205406137.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI5NRhoPstk

Yes, some tunnel vision on my part (sharing mainly the it-is-getting-worse news). Just ignore these if you don't subscribe to that belief.

USD can become reserves currency because US
1. is the world biggest economy, if its economy tank, so does the rest. Everyone needs US to consume their goods export. 
2. is the superpower in term of military.
3. USD is widely accepted and freely traded worldwide. If you have been in those poor 3rd world country, they are more happy to accept USD instead of their own currency.
4. Worldwide trades, mostly quoted in USD and USD is the main settlement currency. You see oil quoted in USD, gold quoted in USD, commodities quoted in USD.

Once you are doing export import business, then you will know the importance of USD.

You buy oil from ABC country, you need to make payment in US, not ABC currency or your own country currency.

You buy electronic chip from XYZ company in XYZ country, price is quoted in USD and settlement is done in USD.

You need USD everywhere in world trading, hence every country needs to store USD as their reserves to pay for their import bill.
If you run out of USD, you can't pay your import bill for foods and goods.

Came across this in IMF report on global economic impact due to covid19.

[attachmentid=10470295]

Surprised that the coffee price has increased! It must be due to the lockdown globally. Ha.

Interested in some commodities eg copper (Dr. Copper as an economic indicator). Maybe platinum is worth looking at.

Uranium price is still positive, demand is still strong, for bombs? Hope not.

I must say it's more towards recovery in asset prices in stock exchanges,... but economic recovery in numbers, egs GDP, unemployment, etc, still hav rooms to fall. Nowadays, I noticed,.... mkts keep trying to move up or if numbers are not good, will either stay still or fall a bit only,....

Truely,... the saying,...  THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT.