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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Ramjade
post Aug 23 2018, 09:31 PM

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For me I will collect my cash and go in when market crash.

Hold what I have and don't add unless it's attractive. It's OK to seat on cash while waiting.

So if market don't crash, my dividends still come rolling in. If market crash, I average down and increase my dividends.
donhay
post Aug 24 2018, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 23 2018, 09:31 PM)
For me I will collect my cash and go in when market crash.

Hold what I have and don't add unless it's attractive. It's OK to seat on cash while waiting.

So if market don't crash,  my dividends still come rolling in. If market crash,  I average down and increase my dividends.
*
brilliant idea, which dividends collecting company do u have at the moment?

Thanks
Ramjade
post Aug 24 2018, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(donhay @ Aug 24 2018, 09:31 AM)
brilliant idea, which dividends collecting company do u have at the moment?

Thanks
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Of course your margin of safety need to be large for you not to fear it.
Singtel
UMS
S-reits

Are some of my dividend machine.
markedestiny
post Aug 24 2018, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 24 2018, 09:53 AM)
Of course your margin of safety need to be large for you not to fear it.
Singtel
UMS
S-reits

Are some of my dividend machine.
*
how resilient were the S-reits during the 2008 recession?
Ramjade
post Aug 24 2018, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 24 2018, 10:06 AM)
how resilient were the S-reits during the 2008 recession?
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Everything drop but those who pick the right stocks are earning double digit dividends.
CE|C93
post Aug 24 2018, 10:51 AM

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If enough investors think as you do, thats when we will have a crash. brows.gif
markedestiny
post Aug 24 2018, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(CE|C93 @ Aug 24 2018, 10:51 AM)
If enough investors think as you do, thats when we will have a crash. brows.gif
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even technical analysis chart works along self-fulfilling prophecy too laugh.gif
icemanfx
post Aug 24 2018, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 23 2018, 04:47 PM)
Noted and thanks.
Thanks.

Remind me of reading another article on my mobile the other day which I hope to re-read again later. But cannot find it now. About Cardiff indicator which has signaled the past recession rather well once the readings were above 200. If you know where to get that article, please drop a line here. I think most likely I did not get the name right, Cardiff.
Thanks.

Yes, hoping to get some PB or MB during crash. But dont think there will be many sellers then.
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QUOTE(CE|C93 @ Aug 24 2018, 10:51 AM)
If enough investors think as you do, thats when we will have a crash. brows.gif
*
QUOTE(markedestiny @ Aug 24 2018, 11:10 AM)
even technical analysis chart works along self-fulfilling prophecy  too  laugh.gif
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Although long term price could be at equilibrium but short term price is largely driven by speculative or sentiment e.g o&g stocks, btc, recently.

foofoosasa
post Aug 24 2018, 02:48 PM

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Valuation wise the only stocks I see on stretch is US tech stocks.

Malaysia Market due to its cut back of project and average price of Crude oil, most people still has slightly bearish view on Malaysian stocks.

10 year treasury yield still have safe margin above Fed rate.

Honestly speaking I still think the unprecedented amount of QE since 09' to 13' still havent 100% fully reflect in stock market. The only one truly already reflected is in property market such as Hong kong and Sydney , Vancouver etc ( I know how crazy is the price went up especially these few places ).

For me I am betting there is one more bull coming (the most crazy bull run ever)....but with bearish view with a lot of trade war issue it probably takes another 1 -2 years before it comes.

Just my view la

PS: I am still holding 85% stocks now in personal porfolio 15% cash ( cash that for stocks investment exclude other purpose).

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 24 2018, 02:50 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 24 2018, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 24 2018, 02:48 PM)
Valuation wise the only stocks I see on stretch is US tech stocks.

Malaysia Market due to its cut back of project and average price of Crude oil, most people still has slightly bearish view on Malaysian stocks.

10 year treasury yield still have safe margin above Fed rate.

Honestly speaking I still think the unprecedented amount of QE since 09' to 13' still havent 100% fully reflect in stock market. The only one truly already reflected is in property market such as Hong kong and Sydney , Vancouver etc ( I know how crazy is the price went up especially these few places ).

For me I am betting there is one more bull coming (the most crazy bull run ever)....but with bearish view with a lot of trade war issue it probably takes another 1 -2 years before it comes.

Just my view la

PS: I am still holding 85% stocks now in personal porfolio 15% cash ( cash that for stocks investment exclude other purpose).
*
US QE fueled worldwide assets inflation; similarly, these bull run slowed or ended with qe. shrinking of u.s fed balance sheet will likely have similar profound effects. erratic and unconventional behaviour of dt will likely add uncertainty and confusion during next crisis.

as no economic recession is the same, next will be from unconventional, non-traditional or unexpected sector.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 24 2018, 04:08 PM
foofoosasa
post Aug 24 2018, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 24 2018, 04:07 PM)
US QE fueled worldwide assets inflation; similarly, these bull run slowed or ended with qe. shrinking of u.s fed balance sheet will likely have similar profound effects. erratic and unconventional behaviour of dt will likely add uncertainty and confusion during next crisis.

as no economic recession is the same, next will be from unconventional, non-traditional or unexpected sector.
*
so what is your opinion then? are we already entering bear phase? beginning of the crash? late bull market? or etc???

just want hear more opinion. No right or wrong.
icemanfx
post Aug 24 2018, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 24 2018, 04:14 PM)
so what is your opinion then? are we already entering bear phase? beginning of the crash? late bull market? or etc???

just want hear more opinion. No right or wrong.
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Stock market crash always begin earlier than expected and unexpectedly.

bear phase is after over 20% price drop.

tehoice
post Aug 24 2018, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 24 2018, 04:56 PM)
Stock market crash always begin earlier than expected and unexpectedly.

bear phase is after over 20% price drop.
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but the index isn't suggesting bearish market. 20% drop is no where to be seen and let alone the most awaited crash?


jutamind
post Aug 24 2018, 07:57 PM

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I've parked 60% of my stock holdings in REIT, and 90% of my equity unit trust funds in bond fund since last Mar.

But hand very itchy every now and then....

This post has been edited by jutamind: Aug 24 2018, 09:50 PM
icemanfx
post Aug 28 2018, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 24 2018, 04:14 PM)
so what is your opinion then? are we already entering bear phase? beginning of the crash? late bull market? or etc???

just want hear more opinion. No right or wrong.
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Long term stock price reflect fundamentals; however, market sentiment supersede in the short term. different people interpret data differently by placing different weight.

believe the biggest threat to u.s economy is inflation rate. dt behavior is likely to fuel inflation rate rise and subsequent bank rate.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 28 2018, 02:26 PM
askingquestion
post Aug 28 2018, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 24 2018, 05:08 PM)
but the index isn't suggesting bearish market. 20% drop is no where to be seen and let alone the most awaited crash?
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I believe US share market would crash if Donald Trump is impeached.
godhand
post Aug 28 2018, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(louzie @ Aug 23 2018, 11:05 AM)
what to do then during crash ? Buy gold ?
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stock la hello. u want to buy when its cheap.
icemanfx
post Aug 28 2018, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(askingquestion @ Aug 28 2018, 03:50 PM)
I believe US share market would crash if Donald Trump is impeached.
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dt is not the sole factor that drove up stock price. in the contrary, if he didn't start trade war, u.s stock price would have even higher.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 28 2018, 04:12 PM
askingquestion
post Aug 28 2018, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 28 2018, 04:12 PM)
dt is not the sole factor that drove up stock price. in the contrary, if he didn't start trade war, u.s stock price would have even higher.
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Its not really a remark on Donald Trump.

I believe any US president getting impeach will crash the stock market.
icemanfx
post Aug 29 2018, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(askingquestion @ Aug 28 2018, 04:35 PM)
Its not really a remark on Donald Trump.

I believe any US president getting impeach will crash the stock market.
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If dt is impeached, president pence may be more market friendly, stock price could rally instead.


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