Stocks clearing before coming crash still necessary/relevant?

No one can predict the future with absolute certainty, but here's throwing a thought. Say, Brexit deal concluded nicely in Mar19, and the trade war between China and USA eases, wouldn't that be what the market deemed as good i.e. and the stock prices would go up again?

Exploring on ETF now.

Saw this ....

[attachmentid=10120682]

Sharing here as, in my tunnel view, it is not painting an overall rosy picture on the economy. Not much green in there.

Yea....

Actually my reply to TS is just hindsight. As you know, hindsight vision is 20/20 

No one could time the market. All about luck.

Questions every investor would ask, and wish he has the answers

Only god knows the answer, assuming god can time travel

Since nobody is god here, at the end of every debate, there would be no answer. All answers are "horse behind cannon"

I would go along with "gut feeling". When you have the strongest feeling to sell or buy, don't resist. Do what your inner most tells you what to do.

Because if I want to die, I prefer to die in my own hands. Nobody else to blame.

Happy new year bro !

Yes I agree with you. My calculation is just a rough calculation based on KLCI index, a broad indication of how timing of selling in a falling market would affect the returns of one’s investment

For individuals, it all depends on which individual stocks he owns. I am sure there are a few stocks did not drop, or even gain. Like some reits (IGB for example). Put in dividend or bonus issues, the returns may not be as bad

So, each individual portfolio would perform differently, but broadly, KLCI dropped about -7% for the period.

I am more interested how plumberly buy European stocks. Apparently he doesn’t want to share....but it’s ok. Do you have any idea ?

I believe gut feeling is because I believe a person's life is determined by his own character.

Since character is born with the person, so his gut feeling will determine his success or failure.

If a person's character is very strong and confident, and do his own analysis and then decides what to do with his investment. That will determine his returns.

If a person's character is weak, undecisive and always need other people's input, then he probably won't trust his own analysis. He will listen to what other people say.

In the instance of this thread, those who are decisive and sell earlier would "gain" more (or lose less)

Both character will have different outcome. Both also depends on "gut feeling" (the lack of for the weak person)

What I have heard so far on the timing of the next recession ...

Asian guru ... between month x 2018 and month y 2019 (can't remember the months now, no need to plan your action down to the day/week/month). 

Ray Dalio  ... a couple of years (in his recent interview in Bloomberg). He is one of the best fund managers. 

Blackrock ... something along the not-now line  :confused:

Allan Greenspan ... later (in his recent interview n Bloomberg) 

Warren Buffet  ...  ( i forgot what he said  now, he gave a vague and smart answer, leaving it to you to guess). 

Best not to just listen and follow. Listen, learn, analyse etc etc. 

All the best!

OK, I can understand what you are saying as I have the same thoughts initially but I have since change my perspectives.  Some veterans here already shared experience about difficulties in timing the market or seeking out  the bottom during recession.  Also with the widespread use of algo/robo trading, the market have become even more volatile compared to the previous recession in 2008/09, which is what is happening to the market now.  Further, not sure how long the coming recession will last, months or years. The market I here refers more to the US market, which I follow more, not so much of the asean market.

What do you think is the best approach or strategy for the current  volatile market and glooming days ahead?

Anyone could be wrong, bro,... appreciated your input,...

Being close to the bottom can mean being on either side of the trough, bro,.... could mean currently the mkt is still dropping (like you said here) but turning round soon, or could have rounded the trough and could be on the way up now...

For myself, I'm basing my decision on the events surrounding us now, and a little bit on the technical rdgs seen here and there. I'm watching the SGX.

And I've started to buy last week !

Well,............. Mr Powell is 'turning round',.... this is a very big factor to me !!!!!!!!!

There will be bad earnings report from Wall Street this week,...we know what happened in December last year,... well,.. to me - I hoped the mkt will be scared this week !!!!!!!

Last chance to buy !!!!!

At the same times, it may mean, investors overlook the risk, aka complacency.
Having said that, to be fair, US stocks are not that expensive after last year end big decline, provided the economy situation doesn't turn sour too much.

Currently, US market is having mini bull rebounding, after the Dec rout.

Some Hong Kong stocks sink 70% as wave of selling hits

Jiayuan International Group Ltd., Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. and Rentian Technology Holdings Ltd. fell more than 75 percent in a matter of minutes and at least 10 companies were 20 percent lower by the close, wiping out HK$37.4 billion ($4.8 billion) in market value.

What if it's done.
Market will rise?

IMF warns of global economic 'storm' as growth undershoots

2019 World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Jan 23, 2019.
10 Feb 2019 11:21PM (Updated: 10 Feb 2019 11:30PM)
DUBAI: The International Monetary Fund on Sunday (Feb 10) warned governments to gear up for a possible economic storm as growth undershoots expectations.

"The bottom-line - we see an economy that is growing more slowly than we had anticipated," IMF managing director Christine Lagarde told the World Government Summit in Dubai.

Last month, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.7 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

Lagarde cited what she called "four clouds" as the main factors undermining the global economy and warned that a "storm" might strike.

The risks include "trade tensions and tariff escalations, financial tightening, uncertainty related to (the) Brexit outcome and spillover impact and an accelerated slowdown of the Chinese economy", she said.

Lagarde said trade tensions - mainly in the shape of a tariff spat between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies - are already having a global impact.
"We have no idea how it is going to pan out and what we know is that it is already beginning to have an effect on trade, on confidence and on markets," she said, warning governments to avoid protectionism.

Lagarde also pointed to the risks posed by rising borrowing costs within a context of "heavy debt" racked up by governments, firms and households.

"When there are too many clouds, it takes one lightning (bolt) to start the storm," she said.

Source: AFP/aj
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...agarde-11227716

P/S Surprised to read that some countries have not had recession for the past 2 - 3 decades!

Vietnam, Cambodia, Kazakhstan

So go and invest there? BUT .. it can be a boiling kettle about to burst. Ha.

Markets trades to as per future expectations...
Many months ago, the US stocks traded based on insane earnings projections.
Without those rocket numbers (many implied CAGR profits of close to 30% ) , markets were simply pricey.
Then the trade tariffs came.
Profits started to slump and the market reacted in EXPECTATION of lower earnings...
Now we have the trade talks... which implies the possibility that profits declines could end....
Hence the markets .........

Perhaps this is proving CLEARLY again that you do not and should not attempt to time the market (LIKE ANTICIPATION OF A MARKET CRASH).....

First, let me recap, my intention is NOT to time the market, sell high and buy low. Just want to minimise my losses when the global recession hits. Ya ya, no one knows the timing when it will hit. I just want to get out before it hits. Then I should not be in shares? I beg to differ. Normal market fluctuations I can take. But this huge recession drop, I don't want to repeat the 1998 mistake. Learn from my mistake (I sold all my other shares before the 2008 crash except this one).

A quick overview on where I am after selling my shares ...

[attachmentid=10191012]

Lugi by about 3.7% as the price has gained in recent month. 

No regret. Ha. 

After selling, dont feel that worried when I hear bad news on that industry, global economy, politics, Trump, BREXIT, Germany, Italy, China etc etc. Don't have to worry about this part of my retirement fund now. 

Learn and enjoy the ship journey as it gets into stormy sea! Ha.   

Cheerio.

Sorry, I prefer to keep that to myself. For privacy reason. Ha.