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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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VincentCS
post Apr 18 2020, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 18 2020, 11:00 AM)

Fed buys bonds and bond etf from banks and funds, creating new money out of thin air and handing it over to these institutions. Some of these money go to the equity market, which is a smaller market than the bond market.
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Is that part of the economy stimulus bill announced by muhyiddin?

Where can we check the percentage of fund created to buy up bonds?

Thanks
VincentCS
post Apr 18 2020, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 18 2020, 02:33 PM)
Nothing to do with muhyiddin.. A much greater being: Jerome Powell.
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Silly me, thought you were referring Msia fed situation

*That's what skipping to end of thread do to ppl uhhh
VincentCS
post Apr 22 2020, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 19 2020, 12:56 PM)
Wow,... you guys are REIT traders,... yes, this would be another avenue for earning returns,...

:thumbsup:

Bro,.. just wondering,... why do you still keep iREIT and EC World REIT - their gearing are very high,... but I know, the gearing limit has been increased by the MAS from 45% to 50% now. Still,... among the SG REITs, these two would pose higher failure rates, right ?

Furthermore,...

1) iREIT has tenant concentration and mkt cap risks - too small.
2) EC World REIT has a tenant that is not renewing soon,...

For European assets denominated in the Euro exposure, I would go with Cromwell EU REIT. For standard European assets exposure, I go with Cromwell and Frasers Logistics Turst (denominated in the SGD).

Lippo Mall is a gamble now,.. but First REIT is looking attractive ? If any further negative development shld happen to any of these two REITs, I opine that Lippo Karawaci would save First REIT instead of LMIRT.

We can't sell everything too,... even if most REITs are going to cut dpus this year, having something is still better than having nothing, right ?

Edited to correct my explanations of European assets in the above to make it more precise !
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Hey, would like to know what you think about Capitaland Mall Trust?

I see very solid financials, but I've little to no exp in SG reits.
VincentCS
post Apr 23 2020, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 22 2020, 07:13 PM)
Capitaland Mall Trust (CMT) will be merging with Capital Commercial Trust soon. The strength here will be in the size of this REIT after this, which will allow this REIT to be included into REIT indices everywhere.

But CMT's malls and retails will definitely be affected by the pandemic. No doubt abt that. Thing is how bad will the effect be,... but the offices in its portfolio later will mitigate some of the impact.

Pays dividend four times a year, has not changed this payout frequency.... yet,...
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Thanks for responding.

Seems like Sg future outlook on this pandemic is still uncertain. The curve isn't flattening anytime soon. Do you think the rising population who favoring WFH will impact the growth and dividend payout of their office portfolio?
VincentCS
post Apr 24 2020, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 23 2020, 06:52 PM)
You are welcome, bro,....

I continue to be cautiously optimistic over the decisions that will be made by the SG govt...

Yeah, I think some offices will be impacetd by the new WFH behaviour being encouraged in these times.

Observe closely as many reports as you can during this earnings season, bro,... some positive egs :-
1) PLife REIT will be setting aside 1.7Mil in case this fund is needed to help tenants during these times. For the most recent reporting yesterday morning, 850K has been 'held back', BUT its dpu payout increased nevertheless compared to the previous corresponding period.
2) Keppel DC REIT's business update did not mention of any amt being held back.
3) Keppel Infra Trust's business update remains steady and the same dpu payout of 0.93c is given out.
4) Keppel Pacific Oak may have some small provisions reported next quarter, but the amt will be small,...

Without doubt, the environment today remains very fluid and things can change very quickly, but we still need to invest. I will bank on our years of studying and exposure to the mkt to be able to help us in these trying times today.

My total portfolio position is +14.99% at close today.
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Thanks for the insights

I plan to DCA slowly every week. But timing on dips everyday is exhausting. Now with the MCO extension (hopefully the last) I think potential rebound in KLCI. However with SG government handling the covid issue, I think as you said: doesn't gives retail investor enough confidence to rebound in short time

What is the time frame you looking for? Not just reits.

May I know whats the ratio of your portfolio , like 60% stocks 40% options?



VincentCS
post Apr 27 2020, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Apr 27 2020, 02:26 PM)
Expecting and hoping for another bottom.

Something does not feel right with this climb after the dip. Maybe due to Feb's trillions. Dont fight the Feb? My layman's view is, even the giant can fall one day. Soon or 50-100 years later. Ha.

If Feb is really that all powerful and great, then the dip should not have happened in the first place. They sensed something was not right months before the crash (don't think they sensed covid but global economic health) and reduced the rate. They are still human.

My 2.8 cents. icon_question.gif
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Stock Market ≠ Economy

So I think you're right to feel something's not right. Me too in fact, also think that the rebounce is because of the stimulus and overall sentiment. I can't speak for everyone, but the people I knew as naive as they can be sometimes, think that the worse is pasts us. They probably thought it's the virus, and not the overall impact it had on economy.

Honestly, the real answer I think is : No one knows for sure what will happen.

 

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