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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:22 PM)
All in the Fennel thread. Check it out! Im getting hammered there!  biggrin.gif
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lol rclxm9.gif

Guess that's where there are....
yusiang
post Nov 19 2013, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 19 2013, 05:18 PM)
I mean inflation adjusted, though, not dollar-to-dollar.

Anyway, your point about cement, iron, etc increasing is all very true.

But they have just been substituted with a lot of cheaper materials.

For example a 15-20 years ago house let's take a house built probably used a much higher proportion of bricks than now. The cement may cost more now, but it comprises a much higher % than compared to previously.

Also, do not forget that houses nowadays have been getting smaller and smaller.

Previous DSL used to measure about 22x75 or even 22x80. The old SS2 houses are massive.

The current DSL are significantly smaller and (this one I did not verify but heard from a friend in construction industry) also slightly lower (again saving on cost).
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Hehe I don't think you have gotten the actual/correct info. I won't call you BS, peace bro, just perhaps there's some misinformation.

But don't get me wrong, i do agree with your "Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry" statement. What I trying to say is that the prices of most landed properties has the fundamentals to support(the actual cost to build now plus the land cost) even if the bubble pops now.
joeblows
post Nov 19 2013, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(yusiang @ Nov 19 2013, 05:48 PM)
Hehe I don't think you have gotten the actual/correct info. I won't call you BS, peace bro, just perhaps there's some misinformation.

But don't get me wrong, i do agree with your "Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry" statement. What I trying to say is that the prices of most landed properties has the fundamentals to support(the actual cost to build now plus the land cost) even if the bubble pops now.
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I'm not too sure about this.

DSL as you know has great variance in location across KV.

1) DSL in matured area? (ie TTDI, D Heights)
2) DSL in "medium class" area? (Cheras taman, SS2, KJ)
3) DSL in far off area? (Sg Long, Rawang, Cheras Bt 9, Kajang, Semenyih)

Also the variance in type of DSL?

1) Built gated guarded? (DSP)
2) Built gated guarded with facilities?
3) Self-gated guarded?
4) No gated
5) Low-cost
MishimaZ
post Nov 19 2013, 06:23 PM

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I beg to differ on your first few lines as I worked as a civil engineer in the construction line. Constructing a DSL still as cheap as RM150k to 200k for the structural + infrastructural works ONLY; for a normal 20x70 build up. Of course, depending on the architectural facade as it affects the whole structure and the ease of the construction. A flat land in nature was easier to construct, if no basement and if the design was simplistic then it is possible to achieve cost of RM350k below to build up a quality landed, excluding land price.

Yes, construction materials did go up in these several years.... but the selling price do not make up with the structural and infrastructural costs mathematically and logically for today's development. Many reasons.... which majorly pointed at government and bank policies that had caused the construction boom to keep the economy growing and running; while most developers are abusing gains by borrowing money and building condos as many as possible while we people happily lock ourselves into unnecessary debts.

In fact no material is 'High End' in engineering terms.... It is all about the successful gimmick made by the developers and real estate agents on living a high end, safe and guarded lifestyle while sucking you dry and making themselves richer and richer. It is only how much abuse the material can take, and the workmanship during construction. To me, any highrise above RM300k is not worth the penny.

This post has been edited by MishimaZ: Nov 19 2013, 06:31 PM
kurtkob78
post Nov 19 2013, 07:09 PM

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Govt disallows interest capitalisation scheme for housing licence approval

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...E-APPROVAL.aspx


EddyLB
post Nov 19 2013, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 19 2013, 04:35 PM)
That's bullshit (sorry for the harsh language, but its true).

I know people working in the construction industry and real estate agents very well and the cost is NOT RM350k-400k.

Believe it or not, the cost of building a DSL is actually LOWER (on a inflation-adjusted basis) today than it was 15-20 years ago.

This is because of:

1. Advancement in technologies and more efficient planning / project management nowadays, and more importantly
2. REPLACEMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY GOODS WITH CHEAP ASS CRAP BY ALMOST ALL DEVELOPERS

While there are indeed some very rare developers (harder to find than a virgin whore) who actually build a high-quality DSL which costs RM350-400k due to good materials, in the majority you will find:

a) Cheap ass low quality precast (even worse than previous pre-fab) construction
b) High-quality lasting baked "orange" bricks replaced with lousy cement blocks
c) Previous weatherproof hand painting of several coats replaced with just two coats (or in the case of one well-known so-called "high end" developer, high end my ass, one SINGLE coat) sprayed with a paint gun.
d) Oven-baked roofing tiles (long-lasting again) replaced with cheap-ass polycarbonate plastic mixed roofing
e) Lousy flooring

So on and so forth.

Just ask yourself, ever seen houses, premium ones I mean not low-cost or PPR type, built 15-20 years ago CRACK after only few months (sometimes even before VP lol)?

Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry.
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I have 2 businesses related to construction industry since 1980s. I remember in the 90s, the ballpark cost to build a DSL in KV is RM60k for 20'x70'. Nowadays it is about RM150k. Maybe more if the design of the house is complicated.

Indo workers cost was RM20/day (unskilled) and RM30/day (skilled). Nowadays Indon skilled worker command RM100-RM120/day. And you can't get good Indo nowadays ! Only Bangla whose skill is bad

Clay Bricks (the orange brick you refer to) was RM0.10+. Now RM0.30+. Cement bricks was around RM0.08. Now RM0.20+

Yes there are some building materials actually reduced in price. Generally materials from China which previously not imported (like floor tiles now become very cheap psf wise). But the labour cost has increased tremendously. Thus caused the construction cost to increase
HuiChyr
post Nov 19 2013, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Nov 19 2013, 03:02 PM)
Baca sini:

"[b]Bubbles, bubbles everywhere, investors beware[/b]"
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ors-beware.aspx
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Looks like the article is singing my tune whistling.gif
Thank for the link. biggrin.gif
icemanfx
post Nov 20 2013, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.
Cost push inflation will drive up price; without control, inflation rate will spiral up like Zimbabwe. To keep inflation rate within acceptable limit, bnm could increase interest rate and reduce money supply. If rise in inflation rate is certain than rise in interest rate is equally certain. Rise in interest rate will have negative impact on assets (e.g. property) demand.

QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.
In 2007, US gomen didn't do anything to curb property price increase. The housing bubble was burst by sub prime loan i.e buyers/owners couldn't service their loan. On the contrary, bnm should intervene early to prevent extended tenure loan given to marginal borrowers.

Historically, after inflationary economy is always a recession.

SUStikaram
post Nov 20 2013, 12:41 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 19 2013, 06:16 PM)
What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
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They become member of mia already.
icemanfx
post Nov 20 2013, 02:38 AM

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Unlike stock and commodity (e.g. gold), it takes months if not years to cash out property investment. Before cashing out, property investor couldn't influence the market but hope for the best. UUU are generally adamant investor especially those couldn't afford or has too much to loss, and only believe in positive outcome. To reinforce their believe in positive outcome, many stretched their resources to commit even more on property. Hence, many hardcore UUU own multiple units of property.

DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 20 2013, 12:20 AM)
Cost push inflation will drive up price; without control, inflation rate will spiral up like Zimbabwe. To keep inflation rate within acceptable limit, bnm could increase interest rate and reduce money supply. If rise in inflation rate is certain than rise in interest rate is equally certain. Rise in interest rate will have negative impact on assets (e.g. property) demand.
In 2007, US gomen didn't do anything to curb property price increase. The housing bubble was burst by sub prime loan i.e buyers/owners couldn't service their loan. On the contrary, bnm should intervene early to prevent extended tenure loan given to marginal borrowers.

Historically, after inflationary economy is always a recession.
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Bro, you got to reread your economics 101 again.

SUSjolokia
post Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 08:33 AM)
Bro, you got to reread your economics 101 again.
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He is taking about monetary policy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability.[1][2] The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual, and contractionary policy expands the money supply more slowly than usual or even shrinks it. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values.

What's wrong ? U have different theory ? cool2.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM
Seremban_2
post Nov 20 2013, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:16 PM)
What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
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-BLR increase,easy entry from new housing project, Inflation Increase, Household Expenses Increase, Stamp Duty Increase, Monthly Installment Increase, Cukai Tanah & Cukai Pintu Increase and APA-APA pun increase No decrease then there will be good bargain in subsales market.
DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM)
He is taking about monetary policy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability.[1][2] The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual, and contractionary policy expands the money supply more slowly than usual or even shrinks it. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values.

What's wrong ? U have different theory ?  cool2.gif
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No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand.

Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 20 2013, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM)
No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand.

Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it.
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Judging by 20/30% up in profit for every quarter by developers, ya ya cost base inflation. ..zzz

Again my oil prices theory, back in 2008 oil price was once at USD 148, all the oil companies was saying expect it to reaches USD 200 in few months as oil supply is seriously deteriorating, no more new oil sources, cost to explore oil has gone up its is impossible to lower their cost, within months if not weeks oil tumble below USD 50, Dubai become dead city all construction stop, my Malaysian co. get burn, 5 years has gone oil price currently hovering below USD 100, so how it that possible ? cost deflation ? or found oil in Mars ?

Economy 101 ..huh perhaps this worth a case studies. .lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 20 2013, 06:57 PM
DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 20 2013, 06:45 PM)
Judging by 20/30% up in profit for every quarter by developers,  ya ya cost base inflation. ..zzz
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Don't do a strawman. Historical profit is no indication of incoming future cost based inflation.

zzzzz

This post has been edited by DoomCognition: Nov 20 2013, 06:50 PM
kevyeoh
post Nov 20 2013, 09:35 PM

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maybe UUU campers already got bored of listening to this?

to be honest... so far it's only UUU so the debate has been going long enough until there's nothing much to say...probably the UUU campers now enjoying their earnings and just smile and looking at this thread?


QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:16 PM)
What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
*
icemanfx
post Nov 20 2013, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM)
No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand.

Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it.
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Are you saying rise in interest rate and tightening money supply won't have any impact on property price?

QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:49 PM)
Don't do a strawman. Historical profit is no indication of incoming future cost based inflation.

zzzzz
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Property price rise is not a inflation?



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 21 2013, 12:02 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 20 2013, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Nov 20 2013, 09:35 PM)
maybe UUU campers already got bored of listening to this?

to be honest... so far it's only UUU so the debate has been going long enough until there's nothing much to say...probably the UUU campers now enjoying their earnings and just smile and looking at this thread?
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Only if they have liquidated their investment else what they are spending is "future money". If they have liquidated property investment, by default they are no longer in UUU camp.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2013, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(661188 @ Nov 20 2013, 11:58 PM)
bz calculating $. brb after finish calculation.
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Until investment is liquidated become hard cash in bank account, it could be a liability.


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