Interest rate can be changed at any time.

In fact, given that it is in record lows - I (in agreement with most experts) only see it going up soon.

Good, my friend.

Btw, since you are another TTDI kaki, you may be interested:
Since I informed my agent contacts that I'm looking for good-value props around TTDI, phone has been ringing non-stop with news of 2 auction units in TTDI.

1 unit 2000sf TTDI Plaza 910k
1 unit 1700sf Sinaran TTDI 950k

Both non-bumi, agents desperate to do a deal.

Seems like subsales is plenty slow. Those prices are close to 2010 prices IIRC.....

Already viewed the sinaran one. Just next to LRT but again next to LRT track too! LOL....so got pros and cons.

This post has been edited by joeblows: Nov 15 2013, 03:29 PM

Actually, not really.

TTDI Plaza would be my choice out of the two units (although just barely lah). With Hero Market opening up downstairs, plus general upkeep of facilities, it is really not a bad place to live for self-stay or even expat rental.

The only (major) downside would be shitty parking (only 1 car park lot IIRC) and horrendous access going in and out (congested roads, bad road condition due to contstruction and idiots parking haphazardly along the road).

I know as my parents own a unit there jointly with my aunt (a retiree) who lives there.

Auction price is starting price, yes, but according to agent they don't expect the price to be bid up a lot due to low interest.

I think the Sinaran unit could be bid up to above 1mil if you're unlucky (cos got more rental potential) but the Plaza one should not go above 950k - general consensus from agents.

Sinaran doesn't face the Malay cemetery.

LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)

I made the prediction in mid-2013 that prices will be down within 18 months - on this forum.

Whether it's big crash or controlled dip (like in Sg or HK) I can't say - that one depends on global economy and also our Malaysian macro economical status.

At that time, many ppl laughed.

Now the same people dare to eat their words and claimed the price will be "stagnant or very slow appreciation" - the same BBBB campers.

LOL

The only goods you can still UUUUUUUUUU(!!) and ppl BBBBB is food nowadays bro! LOL.

Bubble tea RM8.90 and zhap fan RM 8 still got takers one!

Part A (1-4):

The 4 points can be seen as either a bull or a bear signal - it depends really on your view.
To me, it is a strong bear signal as there are already a lot of vacant units. It is right now a renter's market, and getting on the verge of being a buyer's market.

Now the million dollar question is: can the prop owners hold thru with enough power? No one knows for sure.

Part B (1-2):

1. Malaysian policy makers are stupid as hell and too afraid to implement the proper cooling measures (to introduce a stagnation or slight controlled dip) due to political expediency and also, given the tiny size of our economic (relatively) which is smaller than Singapore we can barely afford to save ourselves in any major crisis scenario.
2. Yes - but where's the growth coming from in Marehsia? Gahmen talks so much about being a "high income" nation but do you honestly see us getting there?

That's bullshit (sorry for the harsh language, but its true).

I know people working in the construction industry and real estate agents very well and the cost is NOT RM350k-400k.

Believe it or not, the cost of building a DSL is actually LOWER (on a inflation-adjusted basis) today than it was 15-20 years ago.

This is because of:

1. Advancement in technologies and more efficient planning / project management nowadays, and more importantly
2. REPLACEMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY GOODS WITH CHEAP ASS CRAP BY ALMOST ALL DEVELOPERS

While there are indeed some very rare developers (harder to find than a virgin whore) who actually build a high-quality DSL which costs RM350-400k due to good materials, in the majority you will find:

a) Cheap ass low quality precast (even worse than previous pre-fab) construction
b) High-quality lasting baked "orange" bricks replaced with lousy cement blocks
c) Previous weatherproof hand painting of several coats replaced with just two coats (or in the case of one well-known so-called "high end" developer, high end my ass, one SINGLE coat) sprayed with a paint gun.
d) Oven-baked roofing tiles (long-lasting again) replaced with cheap-ass polycarbonate plastic mixed roofing
e) Lousy flooring

So on and so forth.

Just ask yourself, ever seen houses, premium ones I mean not low-cost or PPR type, built 15-20 years ago CRACK after only few months (sometimes even before VP lol)?

Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry.

This post has been edited by joeblows: Nov 19 2013, 04:36 PM

I mean inflation adjusted, though, not dollar-to-dollar.

Anyway, your point about cement, iron, etc increasing is all very true.

But they have just been substituted with a lot of cheaper materials.

For example a 15-20 years ago house let's take a house built probably used a much higher proportion of bricks than now. The cement may cost more now, but it comprises a much higher % than compared to previously.

Also, do not forget that houses nowadays have been getting smaller and smaller.

Previous DSL used to measure about 22x75 or even 22x80. The old SS2 houses are massive.

The current DSL are significantly smaller and (this one I did not verify but heard from a friend in construction industry) also slightly lower (again saving on cost).

I'm not too sure about this.

DSL as you know has great variance in location across KV.

1) DSL in matured area? (ie TTDI, D Heights)
2) DSL in "medium class" area? (Cheras taman, SS2, KJ)
3) DSL in far off area? (Sg Long, Rawang, Cheras Bt 9, Kajang, Semenyih)

Also the variance in type of DSL?

1) Built gated guarded? (DSP)
2) Built gated guarded with facilities?
3) Self-gated guarded?
4) No gated
5) Low-cost

Actually, they were right based on fundamentals, just that the seasoned investors knows that the party can still continue for awhile despite the fundamentals not supporting the valuations. Back then the bubble was still inflating.

But now the stage is set for the endgame for the boom-bust cycle.

I don't know how someone can post a story about a student planning to buy a 400k house and look at it as a bullish sign. Any investor worth his salt can see that when stuff like that happens, the nation has a serious issue with subprime borrowers.

That's the peak of the irrational exuberance in the economic cycle. IMHO of course.

Property can only go up can never go down? Lets find out together shall we! Ladies and gentlemans, keep your arms and legs in the vehicle at all times....

"Property only goes up, never goes down ever" mentality?

Often most bubbles are never covert - the signs are there for everyone to see (like US dotcom bubble and 1997 AFC).

It's just that most people refuse to see it. Greed blinds the eyes.

Maybe, but:

a) You'd have earned even more if you bought at the lowest level in 1997 (25% cheaper).
b) It took you ~9 years to get a return of 60%, or similar to about 5% p.a. compounded, like mutual fund investments but without interest cost.

Also, that's Singapore. Please bear in mind that Malaysian market has much different dynamics compared to Singapore.

There are certain matured, established areas in Malaysia (in this I agree with cybermaster) that will never be too drastically affected. Places like TTDI, Dsara Heights, Bangsar.

How about areas like Sg Long, Rawang, Cyberjaya, Seremban 2, Desa Coalfields? Would they become the next Bkt Beruntung? Even now we can see homes in Cyberjaya (!) approaching the 1mil mark for terraced homes in some projects.

Your guess as good as mine.

Well, let's take example of Fennel in Sentul. Where a ~1300sqft condo went for a cool 1mil. In Sentul!

You think those investors are in for a good time in the long run?

I think some are going to cry real soon.

The Residence, nearby Plaza TTDI.

Confirmed - just don't ask how I know.

It faces the cemetery that's why.

Maybe they saw someone calling them to the other side....

Well, Bangsar Puteri is close to 30 years of age and still can touch 800psf.

It depends on the maintenance of the place, really.

Although for the amount transacted, I'd much rather buy a landed prop tbh.

I don't think so though. If the pocket is hurt, the consumers stop or slow spending. How about for the thousands who are just "cukup makan" surviving each month with low savings? Or those businesses which are operating with razor thin margins (usually manufacturing)?

2014/2015 is going to hit the Malaysian economy like a knee to the balls. I already predicted this beforehand, hence why I made that "18 months" prediction" in June 2013. It's going to be a challenging time for consumers and businesses alike.

Some idiots laughed. They're not laughing now....

IF there is any external stress (which may or may not happen TBF) we are going down faster than a 2-dollar Thai hooker...

That's the real problem though!

The 90% is real borderline living hand to mouth everyday. What happens when the price shocks hit them?

When a loaf of bread costs RM4-5, these guys are going to be hit really bad. When that happens......people should start to be worried...