Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

views
     
kevyeoh
post Nov 20 2013, 09:35 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


maybe UUU campers already got bored of listening to this?

to be honest... so far it's only UUU so the debate has been going long enough until there's nothing much to say...probably the UUU campers now enjoying their earnings and just smile and looking at this thread?


QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:16 PM)
What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
*
kevyeoh
post Nov 21 2013, 11:15 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


the question is if the bubble grows 100% in 2 years...and if it burst and goes back to original price... u don't really lose much also...

example, condo original price 350k, in 2 years goes up to 700k..

bubble burst...lets just assume... can the bubble burst cause price drop to 300k and below? i don't think so...

so even if bubble burst and drop 50%...go back to square one...

what is your thought on this?

QUOTE(MDV @ Nov 21 2013, 10:38 AM)
Seems like Mr Chan must hv recently exposed big time in property...now very stressed that it will burst, so need to crack some jokes to release some of the stress

It is all very simple :

those who hv recent years made investment in properties, now worried bubble will burst, so try to say things that bubble theory is non-sense

those who are waiting to buy will of course hope that the bubble will burst soon so can buy cheap

So far bubble has been growing and growing...so those invested keep seeing their property price increasing, while BNM is trying to deflate or at least contain the bubble, but it seems like prices still going up, meaning bubble still growing

When will it burst, you need to prick the bubble..i.e. a trigger event. So what will be the trigger event, frankly nobody knows, but here are some past examples :-

1. some type of financial crisis. weakness in banking system
2. currency crisis
3. some regional conflict..war
4 natural disaster...such as earthquake in Indonesia, where the after shock reached m'sia and caused some condo to have major cracked line...wow if that happens, you will see massive sell off in all condos
5. others...
*
kevyeoh
post Nov 22 2013, 04:05 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


500 job cut only...
still got 2800 employees with buying power!
smile.gif


QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 22 2013, 02:40 PM)
Maxis recently announced 500 job cut from their 3300 workforce,  Thailand report economy growth slow down to 2.7%, China having slowest economy growth of 7.5%, Indonesia economy expect slow down in 2014 BI up to 7.5%, Hong Kong economy slow down to 2.9%, South Korea economy slowest at 1.6% in 3 years, Japan economy Q3 economy merely growth 0.5%.

U should read beyond local feel good media..lol
*
kevyeoh
post Nov 23 2013, 11:50 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


the rate of house price increase, on paper, doesn't really look like a sustainable increase...we're talking about 100% increase in 2-3 years... imagine this trend continue....

BUT...for past 5 or 6 years...until today...that increase still holds true...

an apartment costing about 200k probably 5 or 6 years ago...is being sold at 700k now...that's like more than 200% price increase...

So sorry if i don't answer your question, but i am as curious as you because every time there is someone who can buy and continue to flip and makes the price higher...

i think the statistic of number of flippers are not really important...

what is more important is to know if those who purchase and flip...if they really have the holding power...that is more important data i guess...


QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 23 2013, 11:18 AM)
Thinking aloud, like to know what is the ownership statistic for flippers, for own stay and for rental in M'sia. How many % of the buyers are flippers? How much is property value transacted by flippers in a year?

Why? Just curious. If the market is dominated by flippers (in number and value), then we are heading for dark cloud ahead.

Cheerio.
*
kevyeoh
post Nov 23 2013, 10:14 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


yes, i agree with you on the mismatch between salary and housing price...

past 5 years, i think the salary increment is almost flat or below FD rate...
but property price flying so high...

so it doesn't make sense to me but time and again, i'm proven wrong until today...

it really makes me wonder where the money is coming from as for normal salary worker, i'm pretty sure the salary increment is not really matching with the property price increase... unless almost all the buyers are businessman and investors with loads of bullets...


QUOTE(ebee33 @ Nov 23 2013, 05:17 PM)
Singapore's land is limited, so it is not a good comparison.
A majority of Malaysians' salaries are stagnant, so there is a limit to the ability of our population to absorb the continuously price increase of property.

To most Malaysians, there is a already a mismatch between what they earn and the high property prices.
There is no point comparing to other countries, as their population has high standard of living + high income, e.g. Hong Kong and Singapore.
*
kevyeoh
post Nov 27 2013, 07:32 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


sometimes there isn't much to discuss anymore...both UUU and DDD parties have already presented their points...now is the time to wait only...

so far... UUU camp is winning cuz the bubble burst mantra already going on for at least a few years... smile.gif

results speaks louder than words or discussion...

QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 27 2013, 04:43 PM)
Suddenly gone quiet.....
*
kevyeoh
post Dec 23 2013, 07:33 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


so past 5 years if price increase 100%...and then suddenly got dead chicken and price reduce 20% discounted price......i think those who purchased earlier still earn more and better than those who pick up dead chickens deal... right?
kevyeoh
post Dec 25 2013, 01:57 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


penang properties get auctioned off? haha...
nice xmas joke...
smile.gif


QUOTE(teng_08 @ Dec 24 2013, 10:34 AM)
Yep, with the ban on DIBS and RPGT increase, those who bought multiple units for investment purpose will be having a hard time ahead. But of course this does not apply to the super rich ppl smile.gif
It'll be interesting to see if properties in Penang gets auctioned off...
*
kevyeoh
post Dec 27 2013, 06:55 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


why bank's valuation is always so much lower than market price?
i don't really understand this because those are confirmed purchase price which means there is market for that kind of price...

but then bank always quote lower....really give problem...

QUOTE(negisf @ Dec 27 2013, 12:50 PM)
Hopefully price of landed will stagnant in 2014.
Better still, hopefully it will drop slightly to match bank's value.
Now 9/10 property's SPA price cannot match bank's value
*
kevyeoh
post Dec 31 2013, 10:52 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


i think landed price more stable compared to condo...

QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Dec 31 2013, 08:41 PM)
What do you guys think the impact on landed vs condo?
Since ppl normally flip condos as it meant for short term investments, and with scarcity of land, do you think it will affect landed as much?
*
kevyeoh
post Jan 11 2014, 10:22 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


yeah...and everyone in Malaysia just buy and flip properties...and everyday go eat and drink and party at night...no need to work...

continue buy buy buy and then every one or two years, when no more money...sell and buy and flip again for profit...sorry, not flip la...investment...



QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 11 2014, 04:22 PM)
Correct Malaysia is the only country in the world that which properties would "never ever" faced price drop, all those problems faced by other countries like US, PIGGS, Singapore will never happened here, our country will become developed nation by 2018 & income per capital will double, triple every few years, soon we will overtake Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan & become Asia No.1 super power economy.
Our bank negara have so much money that they can compensate every flipper who loss money in properties flipping.  rclxms.gif
If those American, Spanish had consult our Bank Negara they would not end up where they r today, because we have secret fomula for indestructible properties market.  cool2.gif
*
kevyeoh
post Jan 14 2014, 12:40 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
4,717 posts

Joined: Jan 2003


the property price in penang seems to be going up and i don't see it coming down also...

Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0601sec    0.26    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 5th December 2025 - 01:28 AM