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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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DoomCognition
post Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 18 2013, 05:05 PM)
LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)
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A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no? brows.gif ).

Cost push inflation due to
1. GST effective starting 2015
2. Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3. Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4. Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1. Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2. Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments? smile.gif


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 05:26 PM)
We can only take advantage if its a slump and not a major crash. Major crashes especially with prolonged periods of recession will result in an economic collapse. When that happens, taking advantage of cheap properties will not be your primary objective. Survival will.
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Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters.
DoomCognition
post Nov 19 2013, 07:40 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM)
What if income rise is slower than inflation and people will have less disposable income?
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There is a possibility, but it is likely mitigated by:

1. Self employed people / business owners will just reset their wages upwards by transferring the cost to consumers
2. Wage earners (except government servants) will likely jump jobs to make ends meet if possible, or start to look for other alternatives of self employment if things get really bad.

The way I look at it, it will just be a transfer of wealth from wage earners to business owners, as long as there is economic growth. Of course, if there's stagflation or crash, nothing of this matters.


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM)
Isn't this the best time to pick up property?
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No friggin' idea. What makes you say so?
DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 20 2013, 12:20 AM)
Cost push inflation will drive up price; without control, inflation rate will spiral up like Zimbabwe. To keep inflation rate within acceptable limit, bnm could increase interest rate and reduce money supply. If rise in inflation rate is certain than rise in interest rate is equally certain. Rise in interest rate will have negative impact on assets (e.g. property) demand.
In 2007, US gomen didn't do anything to curb property price increase. The housing bubble was burst by sub prime loan i.e buyers/owners couldn't service their loan. On the contrary, bnm should intervene early to prevent extended tenure loan given to marginal borrowers.

Historically, after inflationary economy is always a recession.
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Bro, you got to reread your economics 101 again.

DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM)
He is taking about monetary policy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability.[1][2] The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual, and contractionary policy expands the money supply more slowly than usual or even shrinks it. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values.

What's wrong ? U have different theory ?  cool2.gif
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No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand.

Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it.
DoomCognition
post Nov 20 2013, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 20 2013, 06:45 PM)
Judging by 20/30% up in profit for every quarter by developers,  ya ya cost base inflation. ..zzz
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Don't do a strawman. Historical profit is no indication of incoming future cost based inflation.

zzzzz

This post has been edited by DoomCognition: Nov 20 2013, 06:50 PM
DoomCognition
post Jan 1 2014, 12:37 PM

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As someone mentioned earlier, this thread has so much bloodlust, sadism, vengeance and jealousy. Really sickens me.

Also, flippers does not necessarily not contribute anything to the property scene. They held the property during its most vulnerable period, shouldn't they be somewhat rewarded of that risk? It's all about risk and returns, basic economics.

This post has been edited by DoomCognition: Jan 1 2014, 12:38 PM

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