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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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cooleq
post Nov 18 2013, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM)
DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol

Actually current senario is HHH

Seller want a higher price,  buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in.
*
U are right bro..If this situation continue for the next six month to 18 months i think properties price stagnant or will come down but on the soft landing curve. Unless if something happen to our economic like recession and financial crisis.
joeblows
post Nov 18 2013, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM)
DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol

Actually current senario is HHH

Seller want a higher price,  buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in.
*
The only goods you can still UUUUUUUUUU(!!) and ppl BBBBB is food nowadays bro! LOL.

Bubble tea RM8.90 and zhap fan RM 8 still got takers one! laugh.gif
Drian
post Nov 18 2013, 06:20 PM

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The main reason buyer can hold is because of low interest rates. Make it higher and then they'll start selling
Iceman74
post Nov 18 2013, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 18 2013, 06:20 PM)
The main reason buyer can hold is because of low interest rates. Make it higher and then they'll start selling
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Haha...but who want to be "Bad person"
BNM or BN announce this news?
Or wait for World have crisis to do it?
icemanfx
post Nov 18 2013, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM)
DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol

Actually current senario is HHH

Seller want a higher price,  buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in.
*
The speed of turnover i.e period of time property on market before is sold is a good indication of price direction.

Given there is a holding cost for seller, the longer the seller hold, he will receive less eventually.

HuiChyr
post Nov 18 2013, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 18 2013, 05:31 PM)
I made the prediction in mid-2013 that prices will be down within 18 months - on this forum.

Whether it's big crash or controlled dip (like in Sg or HK) I can't say - that one depends on global economy and also our Malaysian macro economical status.

At that time, many ppl laughed.

Now the same people dare to eat their words and claimed the price will be "stagnant or very slow appreciation" - the same BBBB campers.

LOL
*
Mayb this BBB campers know it actually DDD.
But keep the BBB mode going so to flip their holdings.
U r not going to spoil yr own market right? icon_idea.gif


HuiChyr
post Nov 18 2013, 07:49 PM

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Problem is when market dip, maintenance collection is bad.
The buildings will be badly managed. Lift, swimming pool, etc will run down.

This will affect the price of cond/apt properties too. My 2 cents.
re_freako
post Nov 18 2013, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 18 2013, 02:18 PM)
Nonsense. Life is not so simple and its not always a win loss situation. When I sell something at a profit doesn't mean the buyer loses. Similarly when a teacher sets tests doesn't mean its to differentiate who is clever or stupid but to gauge progress. You've ever hear of the saying.." the harder you work, the luckier one gets"?  whistling.gif
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Anyway talk back property. Since you cannot understand the real meaning of cash flow.

This post has been edited by re_freako: Nov 18 2013, 10:35 PM
DoomCognition
post Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 18 2013, 05:05 PM)
LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)
*
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no? brows.gif ).

Cost push inflation due to
1. GST effective starting 2015
2. Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3. Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4. Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1. Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2. Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments? smile.gif


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 05:26 PM)
We can only take advantage if its a slump and not a major crash. Major crashes especially with prolonged periods of recession will result in an economic collapse. When that happens, taking advantage of cheap properties will not be your primary objective. Survival will.
*
Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters.
icemanfx
post Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments?  smile.gif
*
What if income rise is slower than inflation and people will have less disposable income?

QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters.
*
Isn't this the best time to pick up property?


DoomCognition
post Nov 19 2013, 07:40 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM)
What if income rise is slower than inflation and people will have less disposable income?
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There is a possibility, but it is likely mitigated by:

1. Self employed people / business owners will just reset their wages upwards by transferring the cost to consumers
2. Wage earners (except government servants) will likely jump jobs to make ends meet if possible, or start to look for other alternatives of self employment if things get really bad.

The way I look at it, it will just be a transfer of wealth from wage earners to business owners, as long as there is economic growth. Of course, if there's stagflation or crash, nothing of this matters.


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM)
Isn't this the best time to pick up property?
*
No friggin' idea. What makes you say so?
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 18 2013, 06:20 PM)
The main reason buyer can hold is because of low interest rates. Make it higher and then they'll start selling
Yes that's true but a simple rise of 50 basis points will not add much pressure on owners to sell. I think the real problem for owners will begin when the BLR hits 8.0%. Most investors with multiple properties wouldn't be able to withstand interest rates at this stage. Even I will be in trouble. But I don't see the BLR increasing beyond 7.1% in 2014.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments?  smile.gif
Your 4 points above are correct for escalating inflation but it doesn't mean that property prices will rise in tandem. Actually it would mean the opposite. If ppl's salaries are spent on paying for inflationary increases in living costs, where will the money come from for buying expensive properties?

Don't forget that when inflation goes up, salaries are still stagnant so that decreases purchasing power. If you have limited finances, you would prioritize your spending thus putting expensive overpriced properties out of reach of the general public. And when you have a slump in prices, even those who can afford to buy will treat cautiously and refrain from making purchases unless they are absolutely certain of its future value.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:07 AM

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This article probably adds to the belief that we're heading for a storm. Intensity and duration unknown.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/c...ank-crisis.html

OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments?  smile.gif
Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters.
*
All the hikes above, .....

and plus the market crash...means no takers for the projects due completion in 2014-2015?

...all the lots empty?

Means all die standing? cry.gif
cognac
post Nov 19 2013, 09:29 AM

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its been more than 10years I heard this phrase.....

magic words include, bubble, its coming, soon, future, not a lot of people buying, price too high.

in my opinion, as long as market price is same as the bank value, won't be so easy to burst. imagine whole country property price reduce 5%. country lost how many billion?

gov will surely protect it and dampen it.


TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(cognac @ Nov 19 2013, 09:29 AM)
its been more than 10years I heard this phrase.....

magic words include, bubble, its coming, soon, future, not a lot of people buying, price too high.

in my opinion, as long as market price is same as the bank value, won't be so easy to burst. imagine whole country property price reduce 5%. country lost how many billion?

gov will surely protect it and dampen it.
Its been many years that bank valuations have been less than actual sale prices. That's the root of the problem. In many areas including prime locations like TTDI, bank valuations have been lower than asking prices but most banks still provide loans for the asking price based on the borrowers financial standing.
AVFAN
post Nov 19 2013, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(Seremban_2 @ Nov 18 2013, 05:49 PM)
I will be back to comment on this topic and my prediction will be stagna and more DDD. Good bargain in the future.
*
many have already done that. quit props n prop forums until a more interesting scenario arrives. tongue.gif

hard to made decent profit now and not waiting too long.

and with all that macro risks, gomen not preparing, tough...
icemanfx
post Nov 19 2013, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 08:59 AM)
Yes that's true but a simple rise of 50 basis points will not add much pressure on owners to sell. I think the real problem for owners will begin when the BLR hits 8.0%. Most investors with multiple properties wouldn't be able to withstand interest rates at this stage. Even I will be in trouble. But I don't see the BLR increasing beyond 7.1% in 2014.
*
user posted image

BNM possible rise of 50 basis points in 2014 is valid only if Fed keep their rate close to 0%. As 0% rate is exceptionally historically low rate; after QE, Fed rate will return to historically norm of 4%.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 19 2013, 10:33 AM
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 10:32 AM)
BNM possible rise of 50 basis points in 2014 is valid only if Fed keep their rate close to 0%. As 0% rate is exceptionally historically low rate; after QE, Fed rate will return to historically norm of 4%.
Trust me, the BLR hike in 2014 is virtually certain. The only issue is the timing. Banks like Maybank are in discussions with BNM to delay the announcement of the first increase to Q2 instead of the planned Q1 increase.

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