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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Nov 15 2013, 11:23 AM

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Consider write a e book about the sucess story of your properties investment journey, upload to apps store & Google play, USD 0.99/download.

SUSjolokia
post Nov 15 2013, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(peri peri @ Nov 15 2013, 11:53 AM)
Another sign is

New and high end building but surrounded by poor and torn buildings
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Care to elaborate further ? seen this phenomena in a few area.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 15 2013, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(limch @ Nov 15 2013, 01:20 PM)
People will always complain the high price of property. In fact, people never stop complaining about high prices. They all regret ten year later that they did not buy. This story repeats and repeats. Study the history, learn from the history.

For own stay, ability to hold is the key because the value of the house will remain unlock unless you sell the house.

People are getting wiser. Gone is the low share prices during economic meltdown.
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Share price would "Never" go down even during[ economic meltdown, I like that ...lol

Those senior & record that show KLSE is at 300++ point during late 90's must be fake, it was actually 1300 point...lol

Eh.. isn't back then 1 SGD were like 1.3 something while today ehh.. 2.5 something, so share price err up or down ah? I also donno.

1300 x 2 = 1800 I supposed.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2013, 03:02 PM

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I have seen quite a few thread discussing about property price going down been closed by admin, most of the time due to a few members posting turn nasty, instead of taking action against these members admin take simple/sided approach by closing it, at time tge thread last less than a day, before other members who have their view point or prove that indeed some new complete property is offering discount, eg. I just saw banners near jalan gombak offering 10% discount + free legal fees for Setapak Green condo.
Some member such as Donald Trump had numerous posting using vulgar & inappropriate language, if admin do not understand chinese I am glad to translate on behalf, in fact I had made an report on him once, but I do not see changes nor warning given by admin.
I do believe admin job is to maintain forum rules & order similar to polis in our society at large, rather than give their stand toward opinion of different camp of forum members, just like law enforcer stand on political believe of various party, when conflict arises.
I do hope lyf property talk can maintain as a civilised & non biased property forum.
I chose open approach this round so that other members can give their view point towards this matter, I too do not think there is necessity to start a new thread, therefore choose post in existing one.
For the better of the forum.
Regards
Jolokia.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2013, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(JC999 @ Nov 16 2013, 03:40 PM)
Well another factor considering ownership vs rental, the yearly assessment has just been double and I am sure many has received their 5 fiqure assessment for kl properties. I know a few friends who has just been slap an RM10K assessment to be paid and their rental is just RM1,500 a month so for FYE2013 it would been a lost for them after loan repayment.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Community/2...esidents-l.aspx
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10K assessment doesn't mean owners pay RM10K/ year, just percentage of it eg 6% mean RM 600 per year divided into 2 payment of RM 300 every 6 months.

As for the word bubble just mean rapid price increase, faster than income, only when it reaches unsustainable it's burst@decline than is a problem as real estate bubble r more critical as it may last for years compare to stock market, but can be a shopping gala those who r still loaded after economic "Haiyan". .lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2013, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 16 2013, 09:22 PM)
I saw the 30% article but it won't happen for oversupply reason. There are very limited supply at HK and now the HK Govt have to acquire Agri Lands at the super outskirts of HK (border of China Mainland) in order to convert it for Resi development.
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Hong Kong has one of the world’s lowest birth rates—1.11 per woman of child-bearing age asof 2012, far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
With just 1,032 babies born in 2009 to every 1000 fertile women, it is estimated that 26.8% of the population will be aged 65 or more in 2033, up from 12.1% in 2005.

Speculation, money laundering, black money, underworld king ping turn developer.

Another fake demand like previous oil crisis which proven to be a scam.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 16 2013, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 16 2013, 09:22 PM)
I saw the 30% article but it won't happen for oversupply reason. There are very limited supply at HK and now the HK Govt have to acquire Agri Lands at the super outskirts of HK (border of China Mainland) in order to convert it for Resi development.
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Hong Kong has one of the world’s lowest birth rates—1.11 per woman of child-bearing age asof 2012, far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
With just 1,032 babies born in 2009 to every 1000 fertile women, it is estimated that 26.8% of the population will be aged 65 or more in 2033, up from 12.1% in 2005.

Speculation, money laundering, black money, underworld king ping turn developer.

Another fake demand like previous oil crisis which proven to be a scam.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 17 2013, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Nov 17 2013, 09:25 AM)
hk strong housing demand mainly driven by the rich china mainlanders. it is happening since 1900's
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1900's China still under Qing Dynasty..lol

1990's U mean ?

Driven by black money actually, China no.1 black money & 2nd place ahemm...u know lah . blink2

Eventually price will come down as history repeat it self no exception, last one who get time bomb will suffer dearly.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 17 2013, 10:11 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 17 2013, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Nov 17 2013, 12:46 PM)
u dun read history kah?
u know sun yat sen n gang era or not?
even "china daily" is established in HK. they r so many chinese living in hk during the period.
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hahaha speechless, I am quite sure Sun Yat Sen is refer as father of Taiwan though he study in Hong Kong, too much HV sitcom is bad for u...lol

Talking about Mainland China investors/speculators/flipper not people of China origin, if so all Malaysians chinese r too China people.

Only during the 80's - 90's lot of Bao Fa Hu from mainland china start to "invest' heavily in HK properties, thus create Bubble, China r quite poor after ww2, only by 70s & 80s huge investment pour in thus create lots of instant Bao Fa Hu & Da Kuan, not forgetting rich relative of gov officer.

What did teach children in school nowadays. ..sigh
SUSjolokia
post Nov 17 2013, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Nov 17 2013, 12:54 PM)
tnb should publish the data of empty units. eg how many units are zero reading for 1 year. if they are some usage within 6 months mean the owners may use this prop as holiday or temporary stay when visit KL.
some countries did publish this data and it is very helpful for investors/home buyers.
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Taiwan actually had such data, during the peak of their properties bubbles, there r 1.55 millions home with zero electricity consumption over a period of time, recently the figures is at 1.48 millions.
Clear sign of bubble.

Too bad as usual we will not have these data, In fact we don't even allowed to publish car sales data base on brand & model (even Africa country published the car sales data but we don't. .lol )

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 17 2013, 03:55 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2013, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2013, 11:30 AM)
What will happen if stamp duty raised to 10% for subsell? Add to selling price?
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U can add it in selling price, but remember u can ask for what ever price u like doesn't mean buyers would pay blindly, u may not be the only seller, what if other seller desperate to cash in fast & willing to absorb the extras ?

With so many properties completing soon in next 2 years, it's going to be a buyer market. ..cheer


SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM

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DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol

Actually current senario is HHH

Seller want a higher price, buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in.


SUSjolokia
post Nov 19 2013, 11:07 AM

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I m quite happy many still believe price will be continue to Up 3 & people continue to Buy 3 while developer continue to Build 3, bank continue loan3, more people Borrow 3, as low BLR will Stay 3 hopefully the household debt go beyond 100% by 2014-2015

Opportunity to grabs cheap properties coming soon..lol

Cybermaster98 why waste time educating them ? just prepare cash & wait for the perfect storm...lol
SUSjolokia
post Nov 19 2013, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 01:27 PM)
The issue is that everybody is looking at new launches and the number of ppl lining up to buy. But how many ppl are observing the secondary market? Are sales as good? Everybody assumes that they will be able to sell after VP as easily as they bought it during the launch. That's the main problem. Not many of the ppl who go around investing in new launches with the herd mentality have any idea what-so-ever- of the situation in the secondary market. They don't understand that the factors which helped them invest in new launches (DIBS, free SPA, free loan fees, no valuation, etc) are not gonna be present during subsale. Plus you will be competing against a few hundred other owners with the same intention. That's how it becomes a buyer's market.

This is what I said in the Fennel thread today.
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U should reserved your wise fruit of thought from these wannabe flipper, some of us r sharpening our parang waiting for "Shun Foh" @ Cheap & Good Stock to slash ..lol



SUSjolokia
post Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 08:33 AM)
Bro, you got to reread your economics 101 again.
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He is taking about monetary policy.

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability.[1][2] The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy.

Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual, and contractionary policy expands the money supply more slowly than usual or even shrinks it. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values.

What's wrong ? U have different theory ? cool2.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 20 2013, 08:40 AM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 20 2013, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM)
No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand.

Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it.
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Judging by 20/30% up in profit for every quarter by developers, ya ya cost base inflation. ..zzz

Again my oil prices theory, back in 2008 oil price was once at USD 148, all the oil companies was saying expect it to reaches USD 200 in few months as oil supply is seriously deteriorating, no more new oil sources, cost to explore oil has gone up its is impossible to lower their cost, within months if not weeks oil tumble below USD 50, Dubai become dead city all construction stop, my Malaysian co. get burn, 5 years has gone oil price currently hovering below USD 100, so how it that possible ? cost deflation ? or found oil in Mars ?

Economy 101 ..huh perhaps this worth a case studies. .lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 20 2013, 06:57 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 21 2013, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Nov 21 2013, 11:15 AM)
the question is if the bubble grows 100% in 2 years...and if it burst and goes back to original price... u don't really lose much also...

example, condo original price 350k, in 2 years goes up to 700k..

bubble burst...lets just assume... can the bubble burst cause price drop to 300k and below? i don't think so...

so even if bubble burst and drop 50%...go back to square one...

what is your thought on this?
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So long as u don't sell u don't loss.

Having said that if u bought it at 350K & sell at 350K is a lost, eg. legal fees, spa & etc, renovation, maintenance fees should be add in for break even.

Though RM 300K is highly unlikely but who know someone may be too desperate to cash in, world cup 2014 coming .. endless possibility. .lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 21 2013, 12:21 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 21 2013, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 21 2013, 03:34 PM)
Whether the gomen have act early and enough to prevent exposure to potential npl is remained to be seen.
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Money for cattle farm turned into Properties flipping fund ring a bell ?

Perhaps this is the 5th critical sign of bubble market.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Nov 21 2013, 03:58 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 21 2013, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 21 2013, 04:19 PM)
According to a lawyer friend; currently, one group of foreigners are rushing to sell before new rpgt and another group of foreigners who are working here are rushing to buy before 1m minimum limit kick in. Guess, UUU camp can have the market to themselves in the new year.
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I see foreigner cabuting moneyflies.gif

The foreigner rushing to sell r the flipper, the foreigner rushing to buy is Singaporean who wanna buy a house & stay at JB/Iskandar.

By 2014 hehe .. House grab time. drool.gif
SUSjolokia
post Nov 22 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(JustNobody @ Nov 22 2013, 10:53 AM)
There is possibility but I think not a lot. Don't under estimate holding power of house owner in Malaysia.
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I would rather believe most have very low holding power base on the long list of auction unit I see recently..lol

If u hold on to something doesn't bring profit in near future, it actually hinders ur money from invest in other more profitable investment, mind u business need liquid assets too row, the entire country not depends on properties industry along to survive.

In fact P.I.G.G.S & USA entire economy got turn upside down because too much concentration on properties flipping & ignore other industries.

People had become obsessively indulged into properties gambling, if by now never wake up from it, expect same route with Spain.

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