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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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EddyLB
post Nov 18 2013, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2013, 11:30 AM)
What will happen if stamp duty raised to 10% for subsell? Add to selling price?
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Bro, didn't you know that stamp duty is paid by the buyer ? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Why seller want to add to selling price ? rclxub.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 18 2013, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2013, 12:08 PM)
U can add it in selling price, but remember u can ask for what ever price u like doesn't mean buyers would pay blindly, u may not be the only seller, what if other seller desperate to cash in fast & willing to absorb the extras ?

With so many properties completing soon in next 2 years, it's going to be a buyer market. ..cheer
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Alamak. Only next 2 years we will see the effect ? Damn....thought in 1st half 2014 got some dead chicken to pick up
EddyLB
post Nov 18 2013, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Nov 18 2013, 01:37 PM)
scary?

not doing research?

other people"s money.

not our concern.
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+1

Those who can't afford should be taught the lesson. There are risks for any kind of investment and they should realise that
EddyLB
post Nov 19 2013, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 19 2013, 04:35 PM)
That's bullshit (sorry for the harsh language, but its true).

I know people working in the construction industry and real estate agents very well and the cost is NOT RM350k-400k.

Believe it or not, the cost of building a DSL is actually LOWER (on a inflation-adjusted basis) today than it was 15-20 years ago.

This is because of:

1. Advancement in technologies and more efficient planning / project management nowadays, and more importantly
2. REPLACEMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY GOODS WITH CHEAP ASS CRAP BY ALMOST ALL DEVELOPERS

While there are indeed some very rare developers (harder to find than a virgin whore) who actually build a high-quality DSL which costs RM350-400k due to good materials, in the majority you will find:

a) Cheap ass low quality precast (even worse than previous pre-fab) construction
b) High-quality lasting baked "orange" bricks replaced with lousy cement blocks
c) Previous weatherproof hand painting of several coats replaced with just two coats (or in the case of one well-known so-called "high end" developer, high end my ass, one SINGLE coat) sprayed with a paint gun.
d) Oven-baked roofing tiles (long-lasting again) replaced with cheap-ass polycarbonate plastic mixed roofing
e) Lousy flooring

So on and so forth.

Just ask yourself, ever seen houses, premium ones I mean not low-cost or PPR type, built 15-20 years ago CRACK after only few months (sometimes even before VP lol)?

Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry.
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I have 2 businesses related to construction industry since 1980s. I remember in the 90s, the ballpark cost to build a DSL in KV is RM60k for 20'x70'. Nowadays it is about RM150k. Maybe more if the design of the house is complicated.

Indo workers cost was RM20/day (unskilled) and RM30/day (skilled). Nowadays Indon skilled worker command RM100-RM120/day. And you can't get good Indo nowadays ! Only Bangla whose skill is bad

Clay Bricks (the orange brick you refer to) was RM0.10+. Now RM0.30+. Cement bricks was around RM0.08. Now RM0.20+

Yes there are some building materials actually reduced in price. Generally materials from China which previously not imported (like floor tiles now become very cheap psf wise). But the labour cost has increased tremendously. Thus caused the construction cost to increase
EddyLB
post Nov 22 2013, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 22 2013, 02:40 PM)
Maxis recently announced 500 job cut from their 3300 workforce,  Thailand report economy growth slow down to 2.7%, China having slowest economy growth of 7.5%, Indonesia economy expect slow down in 2014 BI up to 7.5%, Hong Kong economy slow down to 2.9%, South Korea economy slowest at 1.6% in 3 years, Japan economy Q3 economy merely growth 0.5%.

U should read beyond local feel good media..lol
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thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

Faster burst !! Waiting waiting until neck also long long liao
EddyLB
post Nov 22 2013, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(evanesence117 @ Nov 22 2013, 02:50 PM)
But there is a mismatch in terms of median wages and the prices of property at the moment.
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I hear the same point for so long, but the price still so high vmad.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 22 2013, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 22 2013, 03:18 PM)
1993 fresh graduate salary starting RM 1500-1800, twenty years later 2013 fresh graduate salary RM 2200 -2500.

20 years approx 33% increase 1.65%/year
By now if u can't understand why gov only take stringent move to curb property speculation beginning 2014, & think developer had no ideas on the policy before announcement,  why less project compare to 2009-2012, why big developer never make noise on these new policy, then I donno what to says to u..zzz

Who says price never go down ? iproperty or propertyguru ..lol
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20 year ago, fresh grad never thought of buying house. Nowadays fresh grads are buying 2 or 3 houses laugh.gif

That day got 1 thread started by 1 student asking how she can buy a house worth RM400k. A student now is thinking of buying a house. That's why price keep on increasing doh.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 23 2013, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 23 2013, 03:19 PM)
Many still think property as stand along business which will not affected by other sectors, what if u got retrench ? what if ur business get into trouble ? do the entire property investors/flipper work in developer co. or building materials supply or real estate agency ?

If your business need cash urgently to roll do u rather borrow ah long & still hold tight to the properties ? or rather entire family drink sky juice rather than  dispose off ur properties ?

Sorry to use such "Pasar" language as many simply do not understand as their market knowledge heir from the pasar..lol

When house getting more & more expensive people spending larger & larger portion of their income into paying mortgage loan, so less money spend on travel,  recreation,  food,  entertainment,  education,  insurance & etc,  wouldn't this eventually killed off other business,  thus reduced job opportunities ib these area, so when other sectors contribute less $$ how to finance property sector ?

Why do u think Spain got into what there r today ?

Someone mentioned to me in 2008 petrol prices will soon reach RM 10/ltr base on oil price increase at crazy level back then go, I tell the fellow impossible as no way a normal salesman can afford  to pay like RM 2-3 k just to pump petrol, indeed the oil crisis was proven to be hoax & drop way below USD 50/barrel & still hovering below USD 100 till today.

Most if not all our developed neighbour country is expecting economy slow down next year, how well can we survive ?
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Bro, the frequency of your posting seems that you are desperate to buy cheap properties laugh.gif

Don't worry, your time will come. Many people have been waiting for the crash since 3-4 years ago. So, it won't be long thumbup.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 23 2013, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 23 2013, 04:20 PM)
Apologies for endangering ur little bet...lol
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Haha, I have invested in properties since 1980s/90s. Property prices have to fall by 90% to endanger my little bet laugh.gif

Don't treat property investment as a 1 time battle. It is actually a lifetime war. Those who have the perseverance and ammunition will prevail. Unlike stock market, do look for a longer period in property investment. Broaden your time horizon and you will see property investment differently

I know you are targeting those flippers. Both you and me have no mercy on them. They spoilt the market and when there is a correction, they should pay the price. And we can cash in on them. But you have to be more patient. The time is near thumbup.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 24 2013, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 23 2013, 09:22 PM)
Finally we have break the 10 years slump cycle...hooray

90% ! Happy Retirement.

How could I not love lyf PT..lol
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lyf = ?
PT = ?
EddyLB
post Nov 24 2013, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 24 2013, 08:55 PM)
Don't they use short form back in the 50s & 60's ? Low Yat Forum Property Talk lah.

Generation gap ...lol

Thinking of educating the youngsters suddenly Grand Master appear. .rofl
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Ya really have generation gap. I was genuinely putting forward my points to you, and when you can't rebutt, you start to talk something unrelated.

If you are so uncomfortable to discuss property with an old man like me, just let me know. I will not bother you anymore. I am just here to discuss about property and learn some knowledge from the forum, including you icon_rolleyes.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 29 2013, 01:34 PM

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All the 4 critical signs are there already. Price will sure to fall. It is just a matter of time. But when ? Nobody will know.

I will bookmark this post. When the time comes, I will quote and tell everyone "I told you so icon_rolleyes.gif "
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 29 2013, 11:52 PM)
If you have reinvested your profit back to properties, until liquidation with cash in bank account, it is only a paper profit.

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Universally, cash accounting is not practised by businesses. Like PradaLee said, mark to market and accrual accounting is used as international standard.

If you believe in cash accounting, then there will other issues like inflation and currency depreciation. Another debate of its own

I understand what you mean. There is a chance the market value of properties to go below water. All investment face this risk.
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 12:47 AM

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QUOTE(DrPitchard @ Nov 29 2013, 10:22 PM)
+1 to that!

I'm always fascinated by the people who claim that they can read all the signs in the world, knowing that a property bubble is just around the corner. And I've been hearing about it for years, which makes it all the more laughable. Maybe he/she is going around in a circle, thus, the endless wait for the circle.

Oh well, I've profited quite a tidy sum from property investment in the past few years. Glad that I jumped into the market back then. Interestingly, some of my friends who strongly advised me not to invest back then were personal wealth investment consultants based in Singapore. Education from reputable universities in the States and working with the likes of Merrill Lynch and Black Rock. They advised me that equities were the way to go, as compared to real estate.
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Boss, still so optimistic for 2014 arr ? Gomen's action is quite drastic lah. I also scared already.

Let the balloon deflate a bit is also nice lah. Let everyone rest a bit, then only we can travel further laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 08:25 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 30 2013, 12:57 AM)

Similarly, if one bought gold at $1,400/oz and didn't sell at $1,800/oz. He was perfectly correct to claim he have made $400 profit but until he liquidate, this $400 was only perceived, unrealized and on paper.
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Ya you are not wrong. Unlike businesses, individual is not subjected to reporting guidelines. So individual can choose their own way to see profit/loss
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(DrPitchard @ Nov 30 2013, 01:34 AM)
Well, I am not entirely optimistic for 2014. I think the property market will really stabilize and we won't see crazy increases in the property prices. Transactions will also come down. But that being said, I don't think we are going to see a 'deflation' and certainly not a bubble bursting. Anything more than a 10% decrease in price is a bubble to me. The US saw prices dip as much as 50% in certain areas.

Lots of people predicted Malaysians property market to crash back in 2010. Can easily google this up.
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Only time will tell. Apart from the 4 signs, the gomen's recent policies looks like they are adamant to bring down the loan level (property price will be the side effect). Ya, I agree there may not be any drastic "bubble burst". If there is any, it would be like 10-15%, which is already a lot to me
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 30 2013, 08:48 AM)
Is that a bad thing really?

I think there is a genuine demand for props in the market. If the prices deflates a bit, it would encourage more buyers into the market.
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It is a good thing to me. Like a car, if we lajak 180km/h for 6 hours straight, it is not good for the engine. If we can slow down to 90km/h, then the engine can last very long. Our property market has been at 250km/h for the past 4-5 years. Now JPJ wants all the driver to slow down, so everybody is expected to slow down

If there is a downturn next 1-2 years, it is good to weep out those speculative flippers / fresh graduates who can't afford in the first place. Then genuine buyers can buy more reasonably priced property and hopefully market will back to normal with steady growth
EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 30 2013, 11:04 AM)
Genuine investors with strong holding power should still be buying regardless whether up or down.

Just buy at the fundamentals. I myself bought 2 units this year sub sale at subang because of the location and rental sustainability.

So long as we can sustain it, I treat it as a long time investment that I have no intention to flip.
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thumbup.gif

All about each individual confidence level. Although I am still in buying mode in the first half of the year, but I am more cautious now. Taking a wait and see position. Old liao, not gungho anymore laugh.gif


EddyLB
post Nov 30 2013, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(lamode @ Nov 30 2013, 11:14 AM)
hm... I don't see much diff between now and earlier this year.
If given a chance to go back to past, would you still purchase what you did?
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Quite a big difference in bank loan policy now compare to earlier of the year. End last year / earlier this year, banks are still aggressive. Then BNM send out their guidelines and the banks started to be more stringent in giving out loans. Then later in the middle of the year, gomen talked about RPGT, DIBS curb etc. Then came the budget in October. I think the gomen's policy for the past 5-6 months affected the market. The sentiment has changed a lot even from the mouth of my bankers and agents.

In 2016 when we look back, I think 2013 will be considered the year of changes in property investment after 5-6 years of strong growth

If the gomen didn't impose these policy changes, I will still think the market will continue to grow.

I can't undo what I have done. But looking back at my purchases, 2 are sub-sale which my MOF is low so it is cashflow positive. The other new launch purchase is because my company is the contractor of the project. So, I book it just in case I need to contra what the developer owes my company laugh.gif
EddyLB
post Jan 3 2014, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Jan 3 2014, 09:39 PM)

With newer technology & skill, building a house will never higher.

In the 80s, any developers build 1000 house in a year are consider big lor but look now...
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If you are a contractor, please PM me. I will let you do all my projects laugh.gif

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