I m quite happy many still believe price will be continue to Up 3 & people continue to Buy 3 while developer continue to Build 3, bank continue loan3, more people Borrow 3, as low BLR will Stay 3 hopefully the household debt go beyond 100% by 2014-2015

Opportunity to grabs cheap properties coming soon..lol

Cybermaster98 why waste time educating them ? just prepare cash & wait for the perfect storm...lol

Tolong menolong sifat yg mulia!

In 1997, witnessed one or two generation of investors wiped clean in a single crisis. One of my friends, he bought and sold stock in thousands lot, could made 6 digits daily on good days but lost 8 digits sum at the end. He is no longer in speculation and also a few of his properties recently. Current gravity defying property market sentiment is indifference from that time.

its not to educate the UUU. Its to educate all reader and then spread the info so that the sentiment towards property investment is not too extreme.

prior to 2009 everyone who bot properties gain a lot due to the rise in price is very high. However, nowadays one must be cautious to enter the market as the market is quite slow with slower gain. Additionally, the new RPGT policy will reduce the gain further. The gov. also seem to be doing something to cool down the market - proposed increase BLR & increase in assessment rate

While I agree that there's bubble in our current property market, I think we need to evaluate the landed market and condo market separately. Although DSL in Klang Valley selling for millions(or almost a million) sounds like bubble price, today it actually cost RM350-400k to build a double storey terrace, just for the construction cost only(earthwork/piling/building/infra/etc) excluding the land cost. That's why even government's PR1MA houses or those in smaller towns have to be priced aboved that.

For condo market, I personally think that there is a very strong bubble(wtf, ppl had to queue for rm800k condo in sentul??). The ignorant young buyers and the herd of flipper-wannabes have pushed the prices way over the sustainable limit, especially the studio units. A lot of investors are ignoring the affordability of local buyers and just betting on rental profitability after the LRT/MRT completion without the consideration that the size of the high-income tenant pool in Malaysia is actually stagnant all these years and there's no sign that it is going to increase in near future.

OK, maybe me too long wind and TLDR. In summary, if you want to buy a landed for own stay, just do it now. If you intend to buy an offplan condo for rental yield, i can only wish you good luck when you got the VP.

The issue is that everybody is looking at new launches and the number of ppl lining up to buy. But how many ppl are observing the secondary market? Are sales as good? Everybody assumes that they will be able to sell after VP as easily as they bought it during the launch. That's the main problem. Not many of the ppl who go around investing in new launches with the herd mentality have any idea what-so-ever- of the situation in the secondary market. They don't understand that the factors which helped them invest in new launches (DIBS, free SPA, free loan fees, no valuation, etc) are not gonna be present during subsale. Plus you will be competing against a few hundred other owners with the same intention. That's how it becomes a buyer's market.

This is what I said in the Fennel thread today.

In NORMAL economic situation, the property bubble in Msia would have burst long time ago. Global macro economic situation is running in uncharted water. THanks to USA and their money printing activity. Being the biggest economy in the world and US$ as world reserve, every nation is following or at least guided by USA lead. This is known as CURRENCY WAR.

Other Nations (other than USA)
1. Are printing money to keep up or due to in-flow of extra printed USD in their market.
2. Currencies are not 100% free floating but pegged to a basket of currencies or higher percentage pegged to USD. To maintain favourable exchange rate.
3. All the above to maintain account surplus or to reduce deficit. They want their currency cheaper to stimulate export. This scenario some what influence by China.
4. Raw commodities are traded in USD in international trading. Favourable exchange rate with USD to control inflation within their nations. They need these raw material used in their economy/manufacturing etc.

Factor 3 & 4 is a balance game by central banks all over the world to avoid drastic movement that may shock their economy. Also, account surplus or reduce deficit because countries have their sovereign bonds to pay. Nations debt to maintain good rating and interest rate.

That's why we saw GOLD and OIL price rises to unprecedented level because investors are parking their money in REAL VALUABLE assets. Or in CASH with the selection of currencies. However, GOLD and OIL are dropping in prices as we speak.

The MAINTAINING property bubble from bursting in Malaysia (and other parts of the world), is the product of:
1. Increase in money circulation hence inflation in price in property. (and other products)
2. Foreign direct investment - running away from US and Euro property bust.
3. Urgency by locals (Msian la) to purchase due to run-away prices either to invest or own stay.

So once the above activities stop, the property bubble in Msia will burst. USA property bubble burst with the lost of 50% to their initial value. 5% is nothing.

There many factors and analysis more to add so mayb other can provide mroe input. These are my 2 cents.

Baca sini:

"[b]Bubbles, bubbles everywhere, investors beware[/b]"
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ors-beware.aspx

This post has been edited by OPT: Nov 19 2013, 03:03 PM

U should reserved your wise fruit of thought from these wannabe flipper, some of us r sharpening our parang waiting for "Shun Foh" @ Cheap & Good Stock to slash ..lol

No point advising...the UUU camps won't get the message, it's foreign to them

Those who have put their money on the table is being run down and belittled by those who has "good intentions." It is better for them to fight hunger.

I actually have the same opinion about Fennel. Just have a look at Tamarind/Saffron's current rental or subsale transaction price then you can derive the conclusion easily. I wonder how many buyers have looked at the estimated number of completed units for 2015-2017 in Klang Valley or have spent some time to understand the neighbourhood of the property they are buying.

Working in the construction industry here. I can build any typical 20x70 double storey house at RM150 to 200k complete with infra works. Of course exclude land.

My own beliefs is that the contributing factor of the excessive increase of houses was buyer's greed themselves and worse the corrupted Malaysia (government + bankers + agents).

To me, we are already in a bubble of few bubbles combined just that most are just ignorant to accept it.

Part A (1-4):

The 4 points can be seen as either a bull or a bear signal - it depends really on your view.
To me, it is a strong bear signal as there are already a lot of vacant units. It is right now a renter's market, and getting on the verge of being a buyer's market.

Now the million dollar question is: can the prop owners hold thru with enough power? No one knows for sure.

Part B (1-2):

1. Malaysian policy makers are stupid as hell and too afraid to implement the proper cooling measures (to introduce a stagnation or slight controlled dip) due to political expediency and also, given the tiny size of our economic (relatively) which is smaller than Singapore we can barely afford to save ourselves in any major crisis scenario.
2. Yes - but where's the growth coming from in Marehsia? Gahmen talks so much about being a "high income" nation but do you honestly see us getting there?

That's bullshit (sorry for the harsh language, but its true).

I know people working in the construction industry and real estate agents very well and the cost is NOT RM350k-400k.

Believe it or not, the cost of building a DSL is actually LOWER (on a inflation-adjusted basis) today than it was 15-20 years ago.

This is because of:

1. Advancement in technologies and more efficient planning / project management nowadays, and more importantly
2. REPLACEMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY GOODS WITH CHEAP ASS CRAP BY ALMOST ALL DEVELOPERS

While there are indeed some very rare developers (harder to find than a virgin whore) who actually build a high-quality DSL which costs RM350-400k due to good materials, in the majority you will find:

a) Cheap ass low quality precast (even worse than previous pre-fab) construction
b) High-quality lasting baked "orange" bricks replaced with lousy cement blocks
c) Previous weatherproof hand painting of several coats replaced with just two coats (or in the case of one well-known so-called "high end" developer, high end my ass, one SINGLE coat) sprayed with a paint gun.
d) Oven-baked roofing tiles (long-lasting again) replaced with cheap-ass polycarbonate plastic mixed roofing
e) Lousy flooring

So on and so forth.

Just ask yourself, ever seen houses, premium ones I mean not low-cost or PPR type, built 15-20 years ago CRACK after only few months (sometimes even before VP lol)?

Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry.

This post has been edited by joeblows: Nov 19 2013, 04:36 PM

sorry, i dont quite agree with your accusation of cheaper cost to build a DSL..... I'm not in the construction field 15-20 years ago so i can't really compare, but is 10 years in the construction long enough for you?
i do agree to your point that developer's nowdays do tend to use cheaper materials to build a house.
but then the cost of construction is still way higher than when it was..... 1 50kg of cement back then was around rm10, and now? rm16-17..... that's an increase of 60% or more.... same goes to steel bars and all other raw materials.... and as for the labour cost, we all know how much our parents, grandparents earn 20 years ago....
nevertheless, i agree that the developers are sucking huge profit from buyers....

What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....?

I mean inflation adjusted, though, not dollar-to-dollar.

Anyway, your point about cement, iron, etc increasing is all very true.

But they have just been substituted with a lot of cheaper materials.

For example a 15-20 years ago house let's take a house built probably used a much higher proportion of bricks than now. The cement may cost more now, but it comprises a much higher % than compared to previously.

Also, do not forget that houses nowadays have been getting smaller and smaller.

Previous DSL used to measure about 22x75 or even 22x80. The old SS2 houses are massive.

The current DSL are significantly smaller and (this one I did not verify but heard from a friend in construction industry) also slightly lower (again saving on cost).

The RM350-400k is the contract sum developer paying to our subcontractor(relatively established with good reputation). I don't mean the subcon's actual cost, subcon also need cari makan lah. FYI, the cost is increasing everyday thanks to the booming construction plus LRT/MRT projects, so the figure you hear from the industry people you know during early 2013 or even mid 2013 is much lower than today's figure, some WIP subcons can't survive if their VO are not approved.

All in the Fennel thread. Check it out! Im getting hammered there!