Where are the foreigners who came in by bus load?
Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment
|
|
Nov 15 2013, 04:24 PM
Return to original view | Post
#1
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
Where are the foreigners who came in by bus load? |
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 15 2013, 04:36 PM
Return to original view | Post
#2
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
Empirically, when the ratio of house price to household income exceed 8 is unsustainable. |
|
|
Nov 16 2013, 12:36 AM
Return to original view | Post
#3
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 16 2013, 12:23 AM) Barclays Plc joined UBS AG (UBSN) and Bank of America Corp. in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting home prices will fall at least 30 percent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/h...clays-says.html |
|
|
Nov 16 2013, 03:21 PM
Return to original view | Post
#4
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(tylowyat @ Nov 16 2013, 02:57 PM) Would anyone look at broader view of the market now in the ASEAN region? Not forgetting China, Japan, Korea & neighboring Singapore who are eyeing actively here since property investment in these countries become less lucrative. Where are the foreign buyers in these development? Too cheap for them to consider?Greater KL properties are not higher price than many capital cities of ASEAN countries now but with massive infra & new development in the progress, our home ground price will be too cheap if it does not go up by few folds when our city is second best to Singapore in ASEAN. What do you think? |
|
|
Nov 16 2013, 03:53 PM
Return to original view | Post
#5
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
|
|
|
Nov 16 2013, 11:42 PM
Return to original view | Post
#6
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 16 2013, 09:22 PM) I saw the 30% article but it won't happen for oversupply reason. There are very limited supply at HK and now the HK Govt have to acquire Agri Lands at the super outskirts of HK (border of China Mainland) in order to convert it for Resi development. See the attached latest news from HK investment magazine ![]() ![]() Supply of land in HK has always been limited. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 16 2013, 11:46 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 17 2013, 12:36 AM
Return to original view | Post
#7
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
|
|
|
Nov 17 2013, 11:11 AM
Return to original view | Post
#8
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(SantaBarua @ Nov 17 2013, 10:12 AM) In malaysia no need to study charts, research one. As long as banks are giving out 90% margin at the current blr every tom d*** harry mat kumar and ah lim can BBB. Jst wait till blr increases and loan margin reduced then we reopen this topic Concurred with you, historically, property market boom is fueled by easy bank loan. The crunch will come when bank loan is tighten or rise in interest rate. |
|
|
Nov 17 2013, 11:24 AM
Return to original view | Post
#9
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 17 2013, 05:19 AM) He didn't bankrupt if you know how business works. He has many companies and cash, he just need to bankrupt the below to avoid paying USD23M. The cash in this company is still with him not to mention the money from other companies. R. kiyosaki bankrupted this company to avoid paying his partner, show r. kiyosaki is not a honourable person to be a partner. QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 17 2013, 05:19 AM) I have seen a director get his company listed in KLSE and the share shoot from RM0.20 to RM2 then become RM0 (bankrupt) but he became few x richer. You have a lot to learn. QUOTE(lucerne @ Nov 17 2013, 09:22 AM) i know ex mca president, tan koon swan did that. now he is a tycoon in china. guess he is very happy living in china Stock market is a zero sum game, innocent investors lost their money/saving by these swindles, these people are white collar criminals should be jailed like Bernie Madoff.maybe they are many biz man did that, we know only those famous ppl. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 17 2013, 11:24 AM |
|
|
Nov 17 2013, 04:06 PM
Return to original view | Post
#10
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 17 2013, 03:53 PM) Taiwan actually had such data, during the peak of their properties bubbles, there r 1.55 millions home with zero electricity consumption over a period of time, recently the figures is at 1.48 millions. Current Malaysia education don't teach students to gather data, analyse and decide hence most people rely on and believe hearsay without substantiation, and easy to hoodwink.Clear sign of bubble. Too bad as usual we will not have these data, In fact we don't even allowed to publish car sales data base on brand & model (even Africa country published the car sales data but we don't. .lol ) This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 17 2013, 04:11 PM |
|
|
Nov 17 2013, 08:58 PM
Return to original view | Post
#11
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(manapergi @ Nov 17 2013, 08:40 PM) Mainland flippers has stopped speculate HK property since Oct'13 due to drastic increase in Stamp Duty for the foreigners. If property price continue to be resilient, guess the gomen will increase stamp duty next. The question is when and by how much? April 2014? |
|
|
Nov 18 2013, 11:30 AM
Return to original view | Post
#12
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
|
|
|
Nov 18 2013, 04:54 PM
Return to original view | Post
#13
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 18 2013, 07:32 PM
Return to original view | Post
#14
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM) DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol The speed of turnover i.e period of time property on market before is sold is a good indication of price direction.Actually current senario is HHH Seller want a higher price, buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in. Given there is a holding cost for seller, the longer the seller hold, he will receive less eventually. |
|
|
Nov 19 2013, 12:16 AM
Return to original view | Post
#15
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM) A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no? What if income rise is slower than inflation and people will have less disposable income?Cost push inflation due to 1. GST effective starting 2015 2. Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced 3. Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy 4. Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money. Also, do note the following facts: 1. Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble) 2. Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management. Any comments? QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM) Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters. Isn't this the best time to pick up property? |
|
|
Nov 19 2013, 10:32 AM
Return to original view | Post
#16
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 08:59 AM) Yes that's true but a simple rise of 50 basis points will not add much pressure on owners to sell. I think the real problem for owners will begin when the BLR hits 8.0%. Most investors with multiple properties wouldn't be able to withstand interest rates at this stage. Even I will be in trouble. But I don't see the BLR increasing beyond 7.1% in 2014. ![]() BNM possible rise of 50 basis points in 2014 is valid only if Fed keep their rate close to 0%. As 0% rate is exceptionally historically low rate; after QE, Fed rate will return to historically norm of 4%. This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 19 2013, 10:33 AM |
|
|
Nov 19 2013, 11:30 AM
Return to original view | Post
#17
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2013, 11:07 AM) I m quite happy many still believe price will be continue to Up 3 & people continue to Buy 3 while developer continue to Build 3, bank continue loan3, more people Borrow 3, as low BLR will Stay 3 hopefully the household debt go beyond 100% by 2014-2015 In 1997, witnessed one or two generation of investors wiped clean in a single crisis. One of my friends, he bought and sold stock in thousands lot, could made 6 digits daily on good days but lost 8 digits sum at the end. He is no longer in speculation and also a few of his properties recently. Current gravity defying property market sentiment is indifference from that time.Opportunity to grabs cheap properties coming soon..lol Cybermaster98 why waste time educating them ? just prepare cash & wait for the perfect storm...lol |
|
|
Nov 20 2013, 12:20 AM
Return to original view | Post
#18
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM) A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no? Cost push inflation will drive up price; without control, inflation rate will spiral up like Zimbabwe. To keep inflation rate within acceptable limit, bnm could increase interest rate and reduce money supply. If rise in inflation rate is certain than rise in interest rate is equally certain. Rise in interest rate will have negative impact on assets (e.g. property) demand.Cost push inflation due to 1. GST effective starting 2015 2. Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced 3. Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy 4. Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money. QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM) Also, do note the following facts: In 2007, US gomen didn't do anything to curb property price increase. The housing bubble was burst by sub prime loan i.e buyers/owners couldn't service their loan. On the contrary, bnm should intervene early to prevent extended tenure loan given to marginal borrowers.1. Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble) 2. Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management. Historically, after inflationary economy is always a recession. |
|
|
Nov 20 2013, 02:38 AM
Return to original view | Post
#19
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
Unlike stock and commodity (e.g. gold), it takes months if not years to cash out property investment. Before cashing out, property investor couldn't influence the market but hope for the best. UUU are generally adamant investor especially those couldn't afford or has too much to loss, and only believe in positive outcome. To reinforce their believe in positive outcome, many stretched their resources to commit even more on property. Hence, many hardcore UUU own multiple units of property. |
|
|
Nov 20 2013, 11:54 PM
Return to original view | Post
#20
|
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
All Stars
21,456 posts Joined: Jul 2012 |
QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:40 PM) No sir, it is Economics 101 which you do not understand. Are you saying rise in interest rate and tightening money supply won't have any impact on property price?Cost based inflation cannot be solved through monetary policy. Google it. QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 20 2013, 06:49 PM) Don't do a strawman. Historical profit is no indication of incoming future cost based inflation. Property price rise is not a inflation?zzzzz This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 21 2013, 12:02 AM |
|
Topic ClosedOptions
|
| Change to: | 0.0580sec
0.46
7 queries
GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 2nd December 2025 - 03:12 PM |