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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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yusiang
post Nov 19 2013, 12:41 PM

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While I agree that there's bubble in our current property market, I think we need to evaluate the landed market and condo market separately. Although DSL in Klang Valley selling for millions(or almost a million) sounds like bubble price, today it actually cost RM350-400k to build a double storey terrace, just for the construction cost only(earthwork/piling/building/infra/etc) excluding the land cost. That's why even government's PR1MA houses or those in smaller towns have to be priced aboved that.

For condo market, I personally think that there is a very strong bubble(wtf, ppl had to queue for rm800k condo in sentul??). The ignorant young buyers and the herd of flipper-wannabes have pushed the prices way over the sustainable limit, especially the studio units. A lot of investors are ignoring the affordability of local buyers and just betting on rental profitability after the LRT/MRT completion without the consideration that the size of the high-income tenant pool in Malaysia is actually stagnant all these years and there's no sign that it is going to increase in near future.

OK, maybe me too long wind and TLDR. In summary, if you want to buy a landed for own stay, just do it now. If you intend to buy an offplan condo for rental yield, i can only wish you good luck when you got the VP.
yusiang
post Nov 19 2013, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 01:27 PM)
The issue is that everybody is looking at new launches and the number of ppl lining up to buy. But how many ppl are observing the secondary market? Are sales as good? Everybody assumes that they will be able to sell after VP as easily as they bought it during the launch. That's the main problem. Not many of the ppl who go around investing in new launches with the herd mentality have any idea what-so-ever- of the situation in the secondary market. They don't understand that the factors which helped them invest in new launches (DIBS, free SPA, free loan fees, no valuation, etc) are not gonna be present during subsale. Plus you will be competing against a few hundred other owners with the same intention. That's how it becomes a buyer's market.

This is what I said in the Fennel thread today.
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I actually have the same opinion about Fennel. Just have a look at Tamarind/Saffron's current rental or subsale transaction price then you can derive the conclusion easily. I wonder how many buyers have looked at the estimated number of completed units for 2015-2017 in Klang Valley or have spent some time to understand the neighbourhood of the property they are buying.
yusiang
post Nov 19 2013, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 19 2013, 04:35 PM)
That's bullshit (sorry for the harsh language, but its true).

I know people working in the construction industry and real estate agents very well and the cost is NOT RM350k-400k.

Believe it or not, the cost of building a DSL is actually LOWER (on a inflation-adjusted basis) today than it was 15-20 years ago.

This is because of:

1. Advancement in technologies and more efficient planning / project management nowadays, and more importantly
2. REPLACEMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY GOODS WITH CHEAP ASS CRAP BY ALMOST ALL DEVELOPERS

While there are indeed some very rare developers (harder to find than a virgin whore) who actually build a high-quality DSL which costs RM350-400k due to good materials, in the majority you will find:

a) Cheap ass low quality precast (even worse than previous pre-fab) construction
b) High-quality lasting baked "orange" bricks replaced with lousy cement blocks
c) Previous weatherproof hand painting of several coats replaced with just two coats (or in the case of one well-known so-called "high end" developer, high end my ass, one SINGLE coat) sprayed with a paint gun.
d) Oven-baked roofing tiles (long-lasting again) replaced with cheap-ass polycarbonate plastic mixed roofing
e) Lousy flooring

So on and so forth.

Just ask yourself, ever seen houses, premium ones I mean not low-cost or PPR type, built 15-20 years ago CRACK after only few months (sometimes even before VP lol)?

Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry.
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The RM350-400k is the contract sum developer paying to our subcontractor(relatively established with good reputation). I don't mean the subcon's actual cost, subcon also need cari makan lah. FYI, the cost is increasing everyday thanks to the booming construction plus LRT/MRT projects, so the figure you hear from the industry people you know during early 2013 or even mid 2013 is much lower than today's figure, some WIP subcons can't survive if their VO are not approved.
yusiang
post Nov 19 2013, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 19 2013, 05:18 PM)
I mean inflation adjusted, though, not dollar-to-dollar.

Anyway, your point about cement, iron, etc increasing is all very true.

But they have just been substituted with a lot of cheaper materials.

For example a 15-20 years ago house let's take a house built probably used a much higher proportion of bricks than now. The cement may cost more now, but it comprises a much higher % than compared to previously.

Also, do not forget that houses nowadays have been getting smaller and smaller.

Previous DSL used to measure about 22x75 or even 22x80. The old SS2 houses are massive.

The current DSL are significantly smaller and (this one I did not verify but heard from a friend in construction industry) also slightly lower (again saving on cost).
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Hehe I don't think you have gotten the actual/correct info. I won't call you BS, peace bro, just perhaps there's some misinformation.

But don't get me wrong, i do agree with your "Developer laugh all the way to the bank, buyers cry" statement. What I trying to say is that the prices of most landed properties has the fundamentals to support(the actual cost to build now plus the land cost) even if the bubble pops now.
yusiang
post Nov 23 2013, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 22 2013, 05:35 PM)
Aiyah, don't frighten folks like that lah icon_rolleyes.gif  Let me tell you a bit of my personal experience. I was in Spore in mid 90s. At that time, property there as booming and my contemporaries there never experienced a downturn in property prices ...ever, since independence. Same sentiments..pty prices will never go down...
I bought a condo in 96 close to peak in the market. Market corrected big time the next year in 1997. My condo dropped 25% and stayed at that level for about 6-7 years. Balls oso dropped lah but I held. Prices came back big time in 2005. Sold end 2005 with profit of 60%. Point I'm trying to make here is that if you have holding power and a medium to long term investor or for own use, properties is the best investment out there. cool2.gif
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It is very dangerous when you use Singaporean property as an example to illustrate that the property in Malaysia will rise forever, without considering that Singapore is an island with limited lands and they have a brilliant administration which does its best to attract the foreign expats to live/work/invest there.
yusiang
post Nov 23 2013, 03:13 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Nov 23 2013, 12:32 AM)
Please lah, why get so excited just because I used Singapore as an example.. doh.gif ..the point which I'm driving at is that if one is to go in for medium and long term, property investments in the right locations is still the best despite corrections along the way. Are you saying that because of our lousy BN govt and its corruption that our property market will burn to the ground and that I have mislead everyone by using the wrong example? I'm sure the forumers here are a lot more mature than you think.
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You are the one getting so excited about BN government, I didn't even mention anything about corruption. What I said is that Singapore has limited land and their policy attracts expats, I am sure that the forumers here understand simple statement like that.
yusiang
post Dec 20 2013, 05:52 AM

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QUOTE(TheOwl @ Dec 20 2013, 04:52 AM)
I would prefer the bubble burst to happen sooner bcs it's very difficult to sell when prices are so high. I bought low so I'm fine with it. After selling if buy again will be okay - sell low,buy low. First-time buyers who have been waiting for the bubble will be the happiest. Those who will find themselves in deep shit are those who bought high,can't hold on and have to let go. Wow,sure rugi one big hole.
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Errr I don't get your logic, you could just sell your property at whatever low price you want whether how high the market prices are.

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