Agreed. IF this forum can be any beneficial, both spectrum of the matter must be discussed freely without being put-down. Extreme of either sides can only lead to irrational exuberance or irrational fear.

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Nov 17 2013, 11:30 AM

In my humble opinion, this is the "fear" that got ppl to commit to high priced property. The idea that property price can ONLY go up creates an urgency to buy NOW or else.

Sometimes, the unlocking effect comes by desperation or coercion when interest rate increases and debtor cannot pay their monthly installments. Foreclosure in short.

Any market may it be real estate or stocks fluctuates with time. It is a matter of the frequency and magnitude.

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Nov 17 2013, 11:44 AM

I believe foreigners are cautious after the increase in RPGT. Majority of them are investors and flipping even faster than any local investors here.

If these foreigners are international players, I believe they already positioned themselves in USA and Europe after the sub-prime crisis. Or worst, hovering around like vultures for the next property bust in Asia.

Yup this thread is heating up. Unfortunately, shooting of the tangent.

I'm not even sure why u make tht statement?
Mayb u don understand what I'm trying to say? So here it is:
This thread is discussing about property boom and bust, not education.
I believe the person initiate this thread is to get the feel of property situation in Malaysia.

This post has been edited by HuiChyr: Nov 18 2013, 02:02 PM

Stamp duty is paid by buyers. IF I remember correctly (It has been 8 yrs since I bought my apt.)
So it would discourage buyers due to higher cost of purchase. Selling price is more affected by other factors.
Mayb sellers will lower price if they are desperate to sell and encourage buyer to deal?

Mayb this BBB campers know it actually DDD.
But keep the BBB mode going so to flip their holdings.
U r not going to spoil yr own market right?

Problem is when market dip, maintenance collection is bad.
The buildings will be badly managed. Lift, swimming pool, etc will run down.

This will affect the price of cond/apt properties too. My 2 cents.

In NORMAL economic situation, the property bubble in Msia would have burst long time ago. Global macro economic situation is running in uncharted water. THanks to USA and their money printing activity. Being the biggest economy in the world and US$ as world reserve, every nation is following or at least guided by USA lead. This is known as CURRENCY WAR.

Other Nations (other than USA)
1. Are printing money to keep up or due to in-flow of extra printed USD in their market.
2. Currencies are not 100% free floating but pegged to a basket of currencies or higher percentage pegged to USD. To maintain favourable exchange rate.
3. All the above to maintain account surplus or to reduce deficit. They want their currency cheaper to stimulate export. This scenario some what influence by China.
4. Raw commodities are traded in USD in international trading. Favourable exchange rate with USD to control inflation within their nations. They need these raw material used in their economy/manufacturing etc.

Factor 3 & 4 is a balance game by central banks all over the world to avoid drastic movement that may shock their economy. Also, account surplus or reduce deficit because countries have their sovereign bonds to pay. Nations debt to maintain good rating and interest rate.

That's why we saw GOLD and OIL price rises to unprecedented level because investors are parking their money in REAL VALUABLE assets. Or in CASH with the selection of currencies. However, GOLD and OIL are dropping in prices as we speak.

The MAINTAINING property bubble from bursting in Malaysia (and other parts of the world), is the product of:
1. Increase in money circulation hence inflation in price in property. (and other products)
2. Foreign direct investment - running away from US and Euro property bust.
3. Urgency by locals (Msian la) to purchase due to run-away prices either to invest or own stay.

So once the above activities stop, the property bubble in Msia will burst. USA property bubble burst with the lost of 50% to their initial value. 5% is nothing.

There many factors and analysis more to add so mayb other can provide mroe input. These are my 2 cents.

Looks like the article is singing my tune
Thank for the link.

But sometimes if depends on renovation done to the property. Seller probably has done up the property with good quality material and designer taste. So they demand a certain price. Of course, it's also a matter of taste. The seller may think their design is beautiful while others may hate it.

Bank valuation is more generic and standardize view depending on location and type of development ( condo/apartment/landed).

Subprime by definition may refer to low quality debtors, the core factor that worsen the financial crisis were the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Banks packaged the loans into a new financial product and sell to investors. When they cannot honour the interest payments, the bank got into trouble.

The scenario is the same for the BN gov. They package the civil servant loans into a financial product for investors to buy. This is what Rafizi is trying to highlight that Malaysia gov may get into the same problem when interest rate increases.

Civil servants enjoy low interest for their loan. However, the interest rate the government has to pay for bonds depend on supply and demand of the free market. If this interest rate shoots up above the rate for civil servant, BN gov will make a loss. Financial crisis begins.

Wow, really. Then YOU must do some research to get your facts straight. Our "TITLE" for our lowyat profile may be "newbie" but trust me our knowledge on financial and property far exceed yours.

The more you write, the more stupid statement you make. It just show how shallow your knowledge is.

You are the one that's humiliating yourself.

Very unlikely for these 2 factors:
1. Banks are strict in issuing loans. Bank negara imposed these rules on all Msian banks.
2. Ppl with huge cash reserves stop buying.

How I know? A fren working as loan agent told me so. His commission from his clients are dropping drastically. Now he diversified to selling MLM products to his rich clients.

It depends on which developer. YTL for example, will probably not reduce their price. They have strong cash reserves. RM12 billion if I'm not mistaken? Look at IOI. They build shoplots and office building in Puchong even before selling them. No launching or ask for booking (or maybe I missed it if there were one).

UEM Sunrise may drop their price. They did that for some of their latest project.

Not to worry. In paper, it may be fully sold but when project completed, scout the area for actual tenants. Drive around 8 - 9pm on regular days to see if lights are on the houses. This will give a good estimate of real home owners and flippers.

Price may drop when property situation is bad. Then whack a few gems for yourself.

That a good analysis on Spain. It's like a Proton income earner take a loan to drive a Merz.
But wait .... this scenario does exist in Msia. Msians with average income committed to property worth RM1 mill using wife, parants, uncles etc name to get loans approved. Not forgetting sharing amongst frens to venture into properties. Their "business" was high rental to cover the installment. Is this the scenario now? Do you know rental in Mont Kiara area drop by 50%?

So the above is private debt. How abt public debt (govern) ? Currently, Msia's sovereign bond is 50%++ of GDP. Do we wait until 100% and above to GDP like USA, Japan and UK to take measures and realize we are in trouble? Msia cannot afford to bcoz we are not superpower of the world. 50% of GDP is bad enuf.

USA, Japan and UK are economically & politically stronger so they can bend some rules. Spain was lucky bcoz they are tied to Euro .... if they weren't, Euro countries won't be bothered to support the PIGS. Iceland defaulted because they use their own currency, Krona.

It is NOT the matter of Msia (gov or private) able to borrow to the level of Spain. WE ARE ALREADY THERE!
http://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/perso...-it-sustainable

So when Msia private loans turn to NPL (Non-performing loans), our banks will be affected. That will definitely affect the businesses that survive under loans. Public listed company with bonds too. Credit crunch may occur or interest rate bankrupt the businesses. Ppl will lose their jobs.

So what happen to Msia financial market? Investors will flee our market on stocks, bond and direct investments. Our currency weaker causing inflation on daily goods. Food, petrol etc . Hard times will be upon us question is can each household weather the storm and survive?

Sovereign bond (gov debt) will experience high interest rate. Can our government pay the interest + principal to survive? At 50% debt to GDP, it gonna be a tough ride.

Why do you think BN gov suddenly increase price like hell. Petrol, Toll, sugar etc ..... They are using this tactic to increase revenue and pay off debt. They increase price first before the price increase due to factors mentioned earlier. They KNOW it is coming anyway so best to do it NOW than having economics forces dictates the terms.

Oppositions know this as well. But their policy is different. Get the GLCs and Petronas to pay for the debt instead of the rakyat. BN wants the rakyat to pay while maintaining profit to the GLCs.

It's ALL interlink. Politics & economy, property, industries, businesses, private, government ...... and it ALL comes down to DEBT. How to keep the right balance.

Wow ... this tactic is more high tech than mine. Thx for the advise.
Anyway, land office can easily release the data to us? Asking for name and ic ler .... kind of private info right?

Hmmm... ? Gotta work hard a bit lor.... I'm sure there will some letting go for other reasons than the property market factors. To be honest, I had seen matured area experiencing declined prices. Just that you have to be close to the community there to get the inside scoop.