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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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MishimaZ
post Nov 19 2013, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(yusiang @ Nov 19 2013, 12:41 PM)
today it actually cost RM350-400k to build a double storey terrace, just for the construction cost only(earthwork/piling/building/infra/etc) excluding the land cost.
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Working in the construction industry here. I can build any typical 20x70 double storey house at RM150 to 200k complete with infra works. Of course exclude land.

My own beliefs is that the contributing factor of the excessive increase of houses was buyer's greed themselves and worse the corrupted Malaysia (government + bankers + agents).

To me, we are already in a bubble of few bubbles combined just that most are just ignorant to accept it.
MishimaZ
post Nov 19 2013, 06:23 PM

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I beg to differ on your first few lines as I worked as a civil engineer in the construction line. Constructing a DSL still as cheap as RM150k to 200k for the structural + infrastructural works ONLY; for a normal 20x70 build up. Of course, depending on the architectural facade as it affects the whole structure and the ease of the construction. A flat land in nature was easier to construct, if no basement and if the design was simplistic then it is possible to achieve cost of RM350k below to build up a quality landed, excluding land price.

Yes, construction materials did go up in these several years.... but the selling price do not make up with the structural and infrastructural costs mathematically and logically for today's development. Many reasons.... which majorly pointed at government and bank policies that had caused the construction boom to keep the economy growing and running; while most developers are abusing gains by borrowing money and building condos as many as possible while we people happily lock ourselves into unnecessary debts.

In fact no material is 'High End' in engineering terms.... It is all about the successful gimmick made by the developers and real estate agents on living a high end, safe and guarded lifestyle while sucking you dry and making themselves richer and richer. It is only how much abuse the material can take, and the workmanship during construction. To me, any highrise above RM300k is not worth the penny.

This post has been edited by MishimaZ: Nov 19 2013, 06:31 PM
MishimaZ
post Dec 18 2013, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 18 2013, 11:23 AM)
"... stricter planning and approval conditions to discourage the over-supply of high end housing and encourage the supply of affordable and low end housing. "

.........

how to make profit?
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Quoted once from a contractor, structural works for a double storey 20X70 terrace house on a existing terrace (including demolition) cost around RM150k. Oh location is around PJU where old single storey house exceed RM400k easily, though empty and unfurnished.

That was months ago. Also, remember contractors also survived at such price.

If prices of terraces below RM500k still have big profit to developers today. A bowl of pork mee was RM4.00 two years ago now its RM5.00 but condo that looks like glass dildo shot from less than RM200k to RM500k in such time frame due to speculation (which is totally artificially created to lure herd mentality peeps).

The loudest laughers are always developers, because in the end all money go into their pockets. And they build their classy bungalows at The Mines or Bangsar with the money your donated to them. wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif
MishimaZ
post Dec 18 2013, 02:36 PM

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Real life scenario... worked for a developer (quite well known) and this is what he say to us (we are the consultants in fact):

"Aiya, build cannot sell no problem one... Contractors and consultants will be 'buyers' on what we built tak laku lah..."

Already happened to a few of their projects. Last last building contractor yang bankrupt and consultant in debts but developers still developing.

Contrary on popular beliefs, construction materials are actually still cheap just that many were misled with fake news which causes condos to go up to RM1m. Might as well use the 1m to buy a 7k to 10k square feet land and build your own 2k square feet mini bungalow with that spacious land to upgrade or bercucuk tanam man. Really can't brain with those BBB condo craze when you are paying so much for a box and divided land. sweat.gif

Have to agree that house are for staying not speculating. Nak speculate, speculate la on the shophouses or businesses. Malaysians really many tak takut mati one. rclxub.gif
MishimaZ
post Dec 18 2013, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(sendomike @ Dec 18 2013, 02:39 PM)
not sure how much land costs these days, but shops at prime areas go well into the million range.  i'm staying at metroview, wangsa maju and the shoplot downstairs is selling for 5 mil.. crazy expensive sad.gif
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Then buy a less prime place and wait til the area was developed? That is what really smart people do... Not throw themselves mortgaging their homes/houses in order to secure an unrealistic loan?

My uncle bought his shophouse at Cheras Makhota at RM750k that time, nobody could even think it will be what it is now. Easily can sell RM1.5m last year.... price keep up and up but he had never plan to sell since he has easy holding power (his condo at SG rented out at SGD6k/month). When asked how he made it, he just say buy when you can really afford, not buy so that you can afford - he's a late financial boomer (long story as he never take unnecessary risks) but that is what you get when you wait he says.

Some people can have a middle man's pay with a few properties in line but I don't see how a RM5k salaryman can live on RM2m loans that was running on rental? If economic downturn siapa yang kena dulu?


MishimaZ
post Dec 18 2013, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 18 2013, 04:39 PM)
My contractor friend was given a few units to pay for his services when developer tarak wang. Rotting away, those units cos it's a no one wants punya location.
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Lol you just answered it. We called this practice as contra.
MishimaZ
post Dec 18 2013, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 18 2013, 05:17 PM)
now contractors smart oledi, they ask for "progressive payment" according to the % completion ... No?
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Depends on agreement.
MishimaZ
post Dec 22 2013, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(brother love @ Dec 22 2013, 01:59 PM)
NewlY completed Msuites Ampang, ori price Rm620k now subsel from Rm680k, 500sf, buy time staff said can rent Rm3k
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Lol renting out at RM3k.... Saying is one thing, action leh?
MishimaZ
post Dec 30 2013, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 29 2013, 02:21 PM)
When the price is not right, ppl won't buy. Simple as that. But 700k for a landed is not too far fetch these days.
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It is not as simple as that. When there is a system where speculation buying is allowed (ease of getting loans) added in with massive brainwashing (rental return RM3k when your installments is RM2k per month la.... ROI how many % la... land is limited la.... you no buy you are a loser la etc etc); all those that instilled fear to you that have no idea on the construction industry. Lol.

Newsflash, houses are not that expensive to build actually. Contractors can build any nice looking 2000sf+ double storey linkhouses at less than RM300k each and still profit a lot from it, while the developers sell those to you at over a million. For condos, so much more cheaper la...

Given a landed that costs RM350k 3 years ago, what kind of justifications (more like excuses) can anyone give for it to rise to at least RM700k to RM900k now? I thought some stupid real estate agency is saying price hike per annum of 10% is healthy? Mana ada 10% wor.... retard punya real estate bodies.




MishimaZ
post Jan 2 2014, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 1 2014, 09:49 PM)
Hope u all here can give ideas.  (exclude the political side as i'm not politician)

Ideas as to how to make KL properties more world class, more iconic, more higher standard of software like Green and Tenancy Approach and friendly to the international market as without good economy, we'll never achieve high income status.

Besides that, the Bumiputera community may have better participation in the real estate sector as more and more are now aware of property investments.
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O&G to planner, start from scratch right? Planner's job not much compared to O&G wor....

Back to ideas, how world class you expect KL to be? KL has lots of heritage buildings, roads are terrible, drains never maintained, scammers conmen everywhere, 2014 countdown like hooligan spray nonsense and throw rubbish on the floor..... what to improve?

It starts with the Malaysians mentality first. biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
MishimaZ
post Jan 2 2014, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 2 2014, 10:33 PM)
People who think property in year 2014 is CCC may have mental "jammed". All building material cost increased, how property price can drop? However, I'm not deny there will have some adjustment in property price. But it still will return back to normal and even higher. By using KLSE share market as example, 20 years ago composite index 900++ points. 10 years  ago 1200++ points. And now 1800++ points. Year 2018 will reach 2000++ points.

Just my 2 cent

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Lol. Then explain how can I build a house at RM140k be built again at the price of RM150k after one year?

But condos sold from RM90k (4~5 years ago) suddenly become 600k+ wor... Build up more the less the same, only glamour name, freehold (actually pretty useless for condos), free this and that, add discount, become 500K+!!!

Wow, I don't know who yang otak jam now. 20 years stock market how many points important ka... Then why we got recession during 1987, 1998, and 2008 ah?
MishimaZ
post Jan 2 2014, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 2 2014, 11:13 PM)
If you have staff, you have to pay them bonus and raise their salaries.  All costs add up.  But definitely developers are profiteering too.
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Didn't contractors pay their men too? There is a payscale contractors to abide in paying low/mid/hi proficiency labourer and still they can really build at a low price in fact?

What are the payrise given to these staff, etc etc? Still doesn't justify the massive pricing, unless you have better justifications, why not just pour it out.


QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 2 2014, 11:15 PM)
Where did you build your house? Bukit Beruntong?

And i suppose the condo you give example is in KL.

In the end it is always location location location.
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Nope,its some landed around Assunta Hospital, demolish and rebuild double storey? am the designer of the house, and the contractor in charge in fact build such houses at these price? Oh the owner is a developer so he know the best way to squeeze you all dry, bound you all with banks for 30 to 40 years for way overpriced purchase and laugh at buyers.

I am not condemning genuine buyers but it is more on the mentality that had contributed much to the illogical price hike. As the matter of fact, most rich people I design their houses (structurally + infra) for built their houses at a much cheaper price. Build and sell small bungalows for 4-5 million, so that they got a bigger land to build a bigger house at the same price. LOL. rolleyes.gif

Location location location theory is correct, but not when properties became tools for massive speculation. I don't see any difference between stock market with property market collapse, when both is also about holding power. Simple logic.
MishimaZ
post Jan 3 2014, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(forever1979 @ Jan 3 2014, 09:22 AM)
Some of you are comparing stock with properties, which I think is not accurate.
Stock is much more liquid, and in any event, either good time and bad time, the movement is very lumpy.
Say in a downturn, stock value can depreciate by 50% or more, but property will take longer time and (fluctuation ) maybe -30%-40% at worst.
Same go to good time, stock is more advance and fast in getting the return, > 50% return within a year is normal, but if property can do like that, we should be more worry ...
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The only differences both had is the time duration required for gains. Generally it is faster to get or lose money in stocks.

The similar thing is, it is money that is lost or gained; judging from how my house from RM350k shot up to more than 800k in 3.5 years time is something everyone shouldn't overlook.
MishimaZ
post Jan 3 2014, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 3 2014, 01:00 PM)

My point is Malaysia property will continue UUU. Its same as your statement, one house cannot always build/ sell at same price. Recession is an adjustment. Its a natural fact. Why must worry? If you jobless and unable to pay what ever necessity, many out there will accompany you. Is that scaring?

Let's see the property in Malaysia is bust or flying higher and higher.

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UUU reality is correct but when prices go folds, where is the logic?

I face developers and contractors every day and somehow it is better to educate people instead of misleading them to their own grave.

No need see lah.... Even if skyrocket good sign ma... Because it means the blow will be bigger, good lesson for anyone who think there is still more to improve after an apex.
MishimaZ
post Jan 6 2014, 11:49 AM

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I had been a Cheras guy my entire life, I had not seen anything prestigious about Tmn Maluri? Own stay, okay lah... but for invest? Hmmmmm.... what kind of target demographics when expats don't really look out that place? The best place in Maluri is always the single storey terrace right under the LRT, but that place always flood whenever long heavy rain comes. Last heard from a friend who stayed there they were offered a million by MRT Corp to move out out, they missed the boat and now MRT had diverted their lines.

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Location location location theory makes sense but again it was the bull market that doesn't. Price UUU is correct in general, but putting a premium because it seems 'convenient' wasn't really convincing since the majority still prefer to travel in cars instead of commuting to work.

My questions is, what kind of people in their right mind will pay a premium for a shoe boxed serviced apartments for own stay purposes but put it as investment first?
MishimaZ
post Jan 6 2014, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Clareen @ Jan 6 2014, 02:43 PM)
that's cheap but sadly i'm not familiar with cheras
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It is cheap if it is really Cheras. But its Makhota Cheras.... close to Kajang lol. At that distance you figure if it is cheap, medium or expensive. biggrin.gif

MishimaZ
post Jan 7 2014, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 6 2014, 08:23 PM)
Go to Jalan Perkasa laa and see how many people renovate to bungalow size already. Really aa u cheras guy?

And for your second question, what kind of guy? The forward thinking kind of guy. Coz i dont regret one bit coz it all works out for me. Anyway the premium that i paid just become higher.

And people there drive cars instead of commuting? Really aa u live in cheras? Lots of people drive cars but there are lots who use lrt too.
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Still didn't answer my question leh.... Prestigious or not?

Want compare to those few that commutes to the majority that drive to work meh? Full parking outside LRT station comparable to the number of vehicles that pass by Jalan Loke Yew every morning ah? You think you only Cheras guy ah?? Or just migrate here then anyhow claim sendiri Cheras guy ah?

Good if you have no regrets la, hopefully you really benefited to refute what I saw at a certain new condo la... thumbup.gif

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Keyword: If it happens.

In short the current property pricing boom was due to speculation.





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