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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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OPT
post Nov 18 2013, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 18 2013, 05:05 PM)
LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)
*
good point.

So 2014, which mode? tongue.gif
OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments?  smile.gif
Agree, when a major crash happens, our rice bowl is more important than sexy properties dancing in the auction house. Nothing else matters.
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All the hikes above, .....

and plus the market crash...means no takers for the projects due completion in 2014-2015?

...all the lots empty?

Means all die standing? cry.gif
OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 19 2013, 02:45 PM)
In NORMAL economic situation, the property bubble in Msia would have burst long time ago. Global macro economic situation is running in uncharted water. THanks to USA and their money printing activity. Being the biggest economy in the world and US$ as world reserve, every nation is following or at least guided by USA lead. This is known as CURRENCY WAR.

Other Nations (other than USA)
1. Are printing money to keep up or due to in-flow of extra printed USD in their market.
2. Currencies are not 100% free floating but pegged to a basket of currencies or higher percentage pegged to USD. To maintain favourable exchange rate.
3. All the above to maintain account surplus or to reduce deficit. They want their currency cheaper to stimulate export. This scenario some what influence by China.
4. Raw commodities are traded in USD in international trading. Favourable exchange rate with USD to control inflation within their nations. They need these raw material used in their economy/manufacturing etc.

Factor 3 & 4 is a balance game by central banks all over the world to avoid drastic movement that may shock their economy. Also, account surplus or reduce deficit because countries have their sovereign bonds to pay. Nations debt to maintain good rating and interest rate.

That's why we saw GOLD and OIL price rises to unprecedented level because investors are parking their money in REAL VALUABLE assets. Or in CASH with the selection of currencies. However, GOLD and OIL are dropping in prices as we speak.  doh.gif

The MAINTAINING property bubble from bursting in Malaysia (and other parts of the world), is the product of:
1. Increase in money circulation hence inflation in price in property. (and other products)
2. Foreign direct investment - running away from US and Euro property bust.
3. Urgency by locals (Msian la) to purchase due to run-away prices either to invest or own stay.

So once the above activities stop, the property bubble in Msia will burst. USA property bubble burst with the lost of 50% to their initial value. 5% is nothing.

There many factors and analysis more to add so mayb other can provide mroe input. These are my 2 cents.
*
Baca sini:

"[b]Bubbles, bubbles everywhere, investors beware[/b]"
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ors-beware.aspx

This post has been edited by OPT: Nov 19 2013, 03:03 PM
OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2013, 03:03 PM)
U should reserved your wise fruit of thought from these wannabe flipper, some of us r sharpening our parang waiting for "Shun Foh" @ Cheap & Good Stock to slash ..lol
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No point advising...the UUU camps won't get the message, it's foreign to them thumbup.gif
OPT
post Nov 19 2013, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:22 PM)
All in the Fennel thread. Check it out! Im getting hammered there!  biggrin.gif
*
lol rclxm9.gif

Guess that's where there are....
OPT
post Nov 22 2013, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 22 2013, 04:29 PM)
Ive been here since 2010 and every year there will be one group claiming property was gonna crash and another group claiming it wouldn't. Nothing new. But the seasoned investors back then continued investing because they knew what the market was in reality.

But today many of these investors are staying on the sidelines waiting and observing because the facts have shown that we are indeed moving out of a bull market and into a slightly bearish market which can get worse depending on many factors which may come to light in 2014.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is either very smart or stupid.
*
2014 is only a month away cry.gif
OPT
post Dec 11 2013, 09:40 AM

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Huah...this thread still alive and well...

So, what is the verdict? brows.gif
OPT
post Dec 16 2013, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 16 2013, 03:51 PM)
If doomsday on the way, stock market will be d 1st 2 crash. Then only property market. If like that, property can still buy mah for long term investment. After the storm is over, sell! What do you guys think?
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notworthy.gif
OPT
post Dec 19 2013, 07:33 AM

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Is it just me or am I noticing more and more auction properties popping up? sweat.gif

If I recall correctly, it was sometime in late 2010 that I last witness auction properties. Didn't noticed any in 2011, 2012. A few popped up in mid 2013 and now.... whistling.gif
OPT
post Dec 19 2013, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 19 2013, 09:03 AM)
Logically speaking. If I dun drive, 0% chansi to get accident. If I drive 5hrs a day regardless urban drive or on highway, higher chansi to get accident.

Last time less new launching, less auction props. Recent yrs more launching, more auction props.

Like tis ok boh???
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I think those auction props do not belong to the new launches group? sweat.gif
OPT
post Dec 19 2013, 03:17 PM

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Baca ini,,,

Property bubble: fact or fantasy?
By Dr. Ernest Y Y Cheong

Read more: Property bubble: fact or fantasy? - RED - New Straits Times

http://www.nst.com.my/red/property-bubble-...antasy-1.143376

Whoa...based on Table 2, low income families spend (food-dine out) RM 100 per month, or RM 3 per day (30 days/mth) ...
Apa diaorang makan ni? It's like a slice of roti canai w/o drinks per meal.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by OPT: Dec 19 2013, 03:27 PM
OPT
post Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM

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More properties to be auctioned next year[SIZE=7]

Dec 23, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.my

Next year’s hike in real property gains tax (RPGT) rates and the ban on Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) will likely see more property being auctioned in 2014, according to National House Buyers Association (HBA) secretary-general Chang Kim Loong.

“I will not be surprised if there will be a lot of properties for auction next year. I won't be surprised because a lot of people who bought into properties for investment, they are now caught out with RPGT and DIBS,” he said in a SunBiz interview.

He noted that in case the property market slows down and buyers who acquired properties with DIBS are not able to pay their loans, ending up with their property being foreclosed; these buyers will not be able to repay their debts even after their properties have been auctioned while banks will not be able to recover the loan’s full amount.

“Assuming there is a slow down in the market, do you think the bank will finance 100 percent of DIBS at RM600,000 for a unit that is actually priced at RM500,000 without DIBS? The banks will also not be able to recover the RM600,000 (after the property is auctioned off) because they hiked it up in such a way for interest purpose,” explained Chang.

Notably, the banning of DIBS including any of its permutation is expected to stabilise the property market as well as bring speculation to a more realistic level since property prices will now be more reflective of the market value.

“From the last discussion I had with the Valuation and Property Services Department, they said the market has slowed down to a more moderate level and they expect that there will be a saturation point next year,” he said.

“I hope it becomes a reality and to a certain extent, first time house buyers will be able to buy into properties.”

Read all about it here:-
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/en/property...m_content=links
OPT
post Dec 24 2013, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Dec 24 2013, 08:40 AM)
No one selling, no one buying & no one occupying - is that a good market?
*
...means ghost sell, ghost buy and ghost stay...in cantonese brows.gif
OPT
post Jan 13 2014, 09:23 AM

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Malaysia's property market to take a breather this year and next

by john loh

PETALING JAYA: The property market might need at least two years to digest and recover from the various cooling measures that came into effect this month, but expect it to surge again in 2016, say industry officials.

According to Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president Siva Shanker, 2014 is expected to be a tough year for sales, but the market will find its footing next year and catch the next upcycle in 2016.

“The market ground to a standstill after Budget 2014. There was a knee-jerk reaction in sales.

“It will probably stay in the doldrums for the first half of 2014. The second half may be better,” Shanker, who is also CEO-Agency of property consultancy PPC International Sdn Bhd, told StarBiz by phone.

Shanker believes that speculation over the past few years in the primary market, resulting in “far more properties bought than needed”, had been put to a stop by the new curbs.

“The days of 20%-40% appreciation in property prices after only a few years is over, ” he said.

Even so, Shanker sees the secondary market, which he said had languished for years, regaining its lustre.

“A new launch in Bangsar could set you back RM1,500 per sq ft, compared to RM800-RM1,000 per sq ft for an existing property. The discount goes up to 50% in some prime areas,” he said.

An analyst with TA Research said that unlike previous years, many listed developers have held back on their 2014 sales targets – a departure from their usual forward guidance in December – until a clearer picture emerges from the effects of Budget 2014 and other tightening measures.

The exception is Mah Sing Group Bhd, which is aiming for a 20% increase in sales this year to RM3.6bil.

According to the analyst, policy uncertainty on several fronts – such as whether Iskandar Malaysia’s Medini is exempt from real property gains tax, or the pricing of bank loans using the net selling price of a property – remains an overhang on the market.

“The sector’s fundamentals are intact, but in terms of share prices, the catalysts are lacking,” she said.

Property players have noticed a marked slowdown in sales since the various curbs were put in place, although it is unclear by how much.

A number of high-end launches were also shelved, as developers switch their focus to the affordable segment of the market, where demand is more resilient.

Some of the projects launched post-Budget 2014 include block B of YTL Land & Development Bhd’s Fennel@Sentul East condominiums, which saw a take-up of 80% soon after it was opened for sale in mid-November, while tower A and B of Sunway Bhd’s Geo Residences were 85% sold within two weeks, HwangDBS Vickers Research noted.

In Iskandar Malaysia, however, the response to UEM Sunrise Bhd’s Almas Suites and WCT Holdings Bhd’s Medini Signature Tower 2 have been lukewarm, Maybank Research said in a report last week.

The brokerage’s only “buy” call is Glomac Bhd, even though the firm has cut its own sales target for the year ending April 30, 2014 by 18%.

CIMB Research is more upbeat. It expects buying interest to return in the first half of this year, albeit gradually, when potential homeowners realise that prices are unlikely to fall, and that inflationary pressure from the impending goods and services tax, along with other subsidy cuts, leads to higher prices.

“As these macro prudential and policy measures are meant to curb speculation and not restrain genuine demand, the impact (though negative in the short term) should be positive over the longer run because they should help to remove froth from some segments of the market.

“Also, affordability remains close to its highest ever. Robust sales by developers should provide impetus for a re-rating of property stocks,” the research house told clients earlier this month.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, which believes the market will stage a recovery in the second half of the year, advocates a buy-on-weakness strategy for shares amid trough valuations.


Read it all here:
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-year-and-next/

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