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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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HuiChyr
post Nov 18 2013, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2013, 11:30 AM)
What will happen if stamp duty raised to 10% for subsell? Add to selling price?
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Stamp duty is paid by buyers. IF I remember correctly (It has been 8 yrs since I bought my apt.)
So it would discourage buyers due to higher cost of purchase. Selling price is more affected by other factors.
Mayb sellers will lower price if they are desperate to sell and encourage buyer to deal? nod.gif

TScybermaster98
post Nov 18 2013, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Nov 18 2013, 01:37 PM)
scary?
not doing research?
other people"s money.
not our concern.
It is our concern. This is the type of mentality which brings about property slumps and crashes. If everybody is a smart investor, would we have property crashes? We will have slumps as a natural cycle but not property crashes.
kochin
post Nov 18 2013, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 17 2013, 03:53 PM)
Taiwan actually had such data,  during the peak of their properties bubbles, there r 1.55 millions home with zero electricity consumption over a period of time,  recently the figures is at 1.48 millions.
Clear sign of bubble.

Too bad as usual we will not have these data, In fact we don't even allowed to publish car sales data base on brand & model (even Africa country published the car sales data but we don't. .lol )
*
mana dapat data?
can share?
thanks.
interesting.
kochin
post Nov 18 2013, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 09:11 AM)
I think besides the possible hike in the BLR, next year would also see a hike in the stamp duty.
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only if property prices keeps escalating.
if stagnant or drop, might be a reversal in store. who knows? whistling.gif

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2013, 11:30 AM)
What will happen if stamp duty raised to 10% for subsell? Add to selling price?
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find more proxy? sweat.gif
cooleq
post Nov 18 2013, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Nov 18 2013, 02:34 PM)
mana dapat data?
can share?
thanks.
interesting.
*
I think properties price will slump heavily if our country facing economic crisis like what happen in 1998 currency speculative or facing hard landing in economic downturn cause a lot of people unemployed and default loan payment. Otherwise there is a slightly correction in properties prices and furthermore our government already taken step ensure the soft landing in properties price like 30% down payment for 3rd and above properties and hike in RPGT. icon_idea.gif
Seremban_2
post Nov 18 2013, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 01:22 PM)
What u mean -BLR7.0?????  rclxub.gif
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BLR increase same as Monthly installment increase and it will squeeze the family income monthly. This will encourage more selling than buying in near future.
Seremban_2
post Nov 18 2013, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 01:25 PM)
When there is a slump, it naturally means that it becomes a buyers market. So sellers need to improvise in order to make a sale e.g lowering price, renovating, offering better quality furnishings, etc. Its already a renters market now and in some areas its already a buyers market. That's why its actually quite scary to see ppl buying up new launches with the herd mentality without doing proper research.
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Seller also need to know that the house they are selling is competing with the new development project. Like selling an old house VS selling a new house. Buy new house got Free SPA, Free Stamp Duty while Subsales there is a increase of stamp duty, might kena RPGT and etc etc.

SP Setia Eco Hill 20 x 70 RM450k VS Seremban Subsales Garden City Homes 20 x 70 at RM450k.
SUSNew Klang
post Nov 18 2013, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 18 2013, 02:18 PM)
It is our concern. This is the type of mentality which brings about property slumps and crashes. If everybody is a smart investor, would we have property crashes? We will have slumps as a natural cycle but not property crashes.
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If you predict weakness, you should keep quiet, be ready and take advantage.

I would.
SUSNew Klang
post Nov 18 2013, 03:32 PM

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This post has been edited by New Klang: Nov 18 2013, 03:37 PM
SUSNew Klang
post Nov 18 2013, 03:33 PM

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This post has been edited by New Klang: Nov 18 2013, 03:36 PM
SUSNew Klang
post Nov 18 2013, 03:34 PM

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This post has been edited by New Klang: Nov 18 2013, 03:35 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 18 2013, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 18 2013, 01:29 PM)
Bro, didn't you know that stamp duty is paid by the buyer ?  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

Why seller want to add to selling price ?  rclxub.gif
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Stand corrected, must be monday blue doh.gif

joeblows
post Nov 18 2013, 05:05 PM

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LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)
TScybermaster98
post Nov 18 2013, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Nov 18 2013, 03:32 PM)
If you predict weakness, you should keep quiet, be ready and take advantage.

I would.
We can only take advantage if its a slump and not a major crash. Major crashes especially with prolonged periods of recession will result in an economic collapse. When that happens, taking advantage of cheap properties will not be your primary objective. Survival will.
OPT
post Nov 18 2013, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 18 2013, 05:05 PM)
LOL......this BBBB and DDDD war still ongoing?? LMAO never ending since I last participated in early 2013.

What I can tell you is:

In 2010 I was BBBB mode, lots of ppl was too.
In 2011 I was still BBBB mode
In 2012 I was STILL BBBB mode but super selective.
In 2013 I am bear (you can check my posting history, I only posted year 2013 onwards regarding props) but got "laughed at" by some "geniuses" in this forum still believing BBBB.
Late 2013 even those same geniuses, while not in DDDD mode, agreed property price is staying stagnant or only tiny increment in 2014-2015. You don't believe me go read forum history.

So everyone now agrees party is over.

Only difference is if now we have a:
a) Big crash
b) Controlled dip
c) Long stagnation
d) Very very slow increase in prop prices

When your BEST scenario is a tiny, steady profit (almost negligible when you consider in assessment rate increase, low rental ROI and probability of BLR increasing) and your most likely scenario is dead money or big loss, and you are still in BBBB mode, all I can say is LOL, good job.

GLTA as usual, and DYODD. ;-)
*
good point.

So 2014, which mode? tongue.gif
TScybermaster98
post Nov 18 2013, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(Seremban_2 @ Nov 18 2013, 03:14 PM)
BLR increase same as Monthly installment increase and it will squeeze the family income monthly. This will encourage more selling than buying in near future.
I wasn't asking about the effects of a BLR increase. I was asking what he meant by -BLR 7.0.
joeblows
post Nov 18 2013, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Nov 18 2013, 05:27 PM)
good point.

So 2014, which mode?  tongue.gif
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I made the prediction in mid-2013 that prices will be down within 18 months - on this forum.

Whether it's big crash or controlled dip (like in Sg or HK) I can't say - that one depends on global economy and also our Malaysian macro economical status.

At that time, many ppl laughed.

Now the same people dare to eat their words and claimed the price will be "stagnant or very slow appreciation" - the same BBBB campers.

LOL
Seremban_2
post Nov 18 2013, 05:49 PM

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I will be back to comment on this topic and my prediction will be stagna and more DDD. Good bargain in the future.
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2013, 06:05 PM

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DDD ? No lah I see iproperty.com all UUU but the same properties advertised over & over again doesn't look like can sell lah..lol

Actually current senario is HHH

Seller want a higher price, buyer want a lower price, so both side "Hold".. waiting for either side give in.


boyslikeboys
post Nov 18 2013, 06:10 PM

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Admit-ably, bbb mode starts to slow down. But heck if it's good location and considering all other factors still attractive (ie. iconic fennel) I dont see why the party should stop.

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