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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUStat3179
post Nov 15 2013, 11:49 AM

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And what's the average yield of rental nowadays?

4%? 3%? biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Nov 19 2013, 05:16 PM

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What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
SUStat3179
post Nov 23 2013, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Nov 23 2013, 05:20 PM)
There we go again people saying wrong to cmpare malaysia with singapore. Hey everybody here...KL ni besar sangat keeee?
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KL has a hinterland. There is still land in cyberjaya, kajang...etc

Singapore doesn't. Neither does HK.

China and Johore does not count as hinterland.

There is a huge difference.
SUStat3179
post Nov 24 2013, 08:33 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Nov 23 2013, 10:51 PM)
Yeah try and buy property in bukit bintang then. What i am saying good areas will have prime price.

Cyberjaya is selangor i believe.

My point was again, KL and i mean prime KL areas are very limited, same as singapore. Want to compare the whole of Malaysia, hey can buy at bukit beruntong.

Kajang is rising in price but wont be as expensive as properties near kampong pandan.
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Dude what I meant was in kL you not necessarily live in kl in order to enjoy its economic activities and leisure activities as there is ample land at greater kl that is well connected and easy to drive and travel into. And they are relatively close to each and other

Kl and kajang for example is still within the same country. If you live in kajang and work in kl, you need not present a passport to go into kl to work and vice versa.

Singapore and Johore is 2 different countries. Hence Johor is not Singapore's hinterland. Hence Singapore has very limited land. Likewise for hong kong.

That is why your argument about land in kl as compared to singapore is inaccurate. Kl can rely on land in selangor to grow while Singapore and HK cannot.

Thus your argument for skyrocketing prices for kl is not accurate when you compare it to Singapore.
SUStat3179
post Nov 24 2013, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Nov 24 2013, 08:24 PM)
Brother,
Then i am saying that for the whole of malaysia to compare with singapore, we still hav cheap land in bukit beruntong. Get it?

In KL prime areas will be very expensive, they are very limited. Ergo skyrocketing price. Must remember that singapore was once Malaysia. Not comparable enuff?
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KL is not meant to be as expensive as Singapore because Singapore has a genuine shortage of land compared to kl.

KL has room to expand into greater kl hence high prices in the city centre is not justified as compared to Singapore.

SUStat3179
post Nov 29 2013, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 11:49 AM)
It all depends on the entry price for that area. There is no blanket price range. You will only make money or lose money when you sell the property. As long as you have the holding power, it doesn't matter if property prices in your area drop 50%. Sooner or later prices will recover. Property prices are always in cycles. There will be up's and downs. The rule of thumb is never buy at the peak or just before a slump (which is now).

Right now, banks are very conservative in their valuations of property prices because nobody knows how bad the impact of the slump is gonna be. Nobody knows if prices will correct 5% or 25%. But areas with a glut of condo's will be hardest hit.
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Of course, if you really know whether now is the peak then you will be rich then....

I recall in 2008 when the US crisis hit. I remember everyone said get ready, house prices gonna crash, we are gonna have a global recession soon, don't buy.

No one anticipated helicopter Ben.

Well, lets just say those who did not bought at 2008, 09 and 10 are laughing at us now.....

Point is, you never know and you can never be certain...
SUStat3179
post Nov 29 2013, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:34 PM)
Why those who didn't buy at 2008-2010 are laughing at us? I bought at that time and im laughing at those who didn't.
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Whoops... I meant those who BOUGHT....
SUStat3179
post Nov 29 2013, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:40 PM)
Yes. But u must remember some thing. Who were the ppl who were predicting a collapse in 2008? Were they ppl in the know? Were they seasoned investors? Are the conditions the same now? That's why I started this post. Because the 4 signs before a typical property slump are now complete and in the open for all to see. And like Eddy said earlier, I will keep this thread active for another year and then the discussions here will be proof to those who believed that a slump isn't coming.

Tip: Learn to differentiate the sound from the noise

biggrin.gif
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Haha. I remember following CNN business segment and all business newspapers at the time.

It was so exciting. All the economic professors are so kan cheong like the end times are nigh..biggrin.gif

I mean, I actually look forward to watch CNN business today to see the Dow Jones fall and the US property burst.

Tell me, how do you know who is the expert and who is making noise then when the experts themselves are screeching like lost chickens? biggrin.gif


SUStat3179
post Nov 29 2013, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 29 2013, 02:47 PM)
I was referring to ppl here in Malaysia. Cant comment on those in foreign countries. Sometimes the man on the street is a better judge because a lot of the economic reports from so called 'experts' are done with a 'udang sebalik batu' concept. Same with developers here in Malaysia. Go ask any of them if there is a property slump coming and I bet u all of them will say NO. Why? Do u really think they don't know? They are merely sustaining their rice bowl a bit longer.
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Point is, man on the street, real estate agent, economic expert, nobody can predict what's going to happen next year.

You may be right that there is a property bubble and it may burst. You could also be dead wrong and prices still goes up.

If anyone knows for sure, he certainly won't be this forum commenting like you.
SUStat3179
post Nov 30 2013, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 30 2013, 08:33 AM)
Only time will tell. Apart from the 4 signs, the gomen's recent policies looks like they are adamant to bring down the loan level (property price will be the side effect). Ya, I agree there may not be any drastic "bubble burst". If there is any, it would be like 10-15%, which is already a lot to me
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Is that a bad thing really?

I think there is a genuine demand for props in the market. If the prices deflates a bit, it would encourage more buyers into the market.
SUStat3179
post Nov 30 2013, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Nov 30 2013, 10:49 AM)
It is a good thing to me. Like a car, if we lajak 180km/h for 6 hours straight, it is not good for the engine. If we can slow down to 90km/h, then the engine can last very long. Our property market has been at 250km/h for the past 4-5 years. Now JPJ wants all the driver to slow down, so everybody is expected to slow down

If there is a downturn next 1-2 years, it is good to weep out those speculative flippers / fresh graduates who can't afford in the first place. Then genuine buyers can buy more reasonably priced property and hopefully market will back to normal with steady growth
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Genuine investors with strong holding power should still be buying regardless whether up or down.

Just buy at the fundamentals. I myself bought 2 units this year sub sale at subang because of the location and rental sustainability.

So long as we can sustain it, I treat it as a long time investment that I have no intention to flip.
SUStat3179
post Nov 30 2013, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 30 2013, 09:11 AM)
Just like when price going up people wanna wait until it go up further to gain more profit, same go when price going down people wanna wait until it go down lower to obtain best deal.

Kiasu attitude, been taught so since young. .. can't help..lol

Genuine demand ? hmm small percentage.. insignificant.. .sigh

Again many ignored other factor when talking about property, "I have strong holding power"
Pay cut still hold ?
Retrenchment still hold ?
Business need cash urgently still hold ?
Business bankrupt still hold ?

No point defending price will not go down here, might as well source for more properties to BBB, just ignore the water blowing fellow here, since price would never go down why worry ? unless..ehemm..deep inside actually "" kecut"" a bit ..hehe
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If you scared you can always put all your cash into FD.

And watch one big loaf of gardenia bread rise from 3.40 to maybe 4 bucks next year. biggrin.gif

We non bumis don't have much option to put our money in decent assets here... biggrin.gif


SUStat3179
post Nov 30 2013, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 30 2013, 11:57 AM)
Property in kv is not the only investment choice and if time is not a constraint, better to buy at low.
During first half phase of inflation, price may go up but if inflation is prolonged and excessive, price will more likely to tumble e.g. gold.
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I don't know how long to wait before it is the optimum time to enter the market.

Do you? biggrin.gif

If you do, please tell me when the bubble will burst.

I would love to know.
SUStat3179
post Dec 2 2013, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 2 2013, 09:45 AM)
Gov expected to announce a 15% hike in electricity rates today. I believe this is just the tip of the iceberd. 2014 is clearly gonna be a very testing time for the economy.
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The economy's gonna do fine.

Our pockets however.... biggrin.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 2 2013, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Dec 2 2013, 11:58 AM)
I don't think so though. If the pocket is hurt, the consumers stop or slow spending. How about for the thousands who are just "cukup makan" surviving each month with low savings? Or those businesses which are operating with razor thin margins (usually manufacturing)?

2014/2015 is going to hit the Malaysian economy like a knee to the balls. I already predicted this beforehand, hence why I made that "18 months" prediction" in June 2013. It's going to be a challenging time for consumers and businesses alike.

Some idiots laughed. They're not laughing now....

IF there is any external stress (which may or may not happen TBF) we are going down faster than a 2-dollar Thai hooker...
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We will see my friend, we will see...

But then again remember that 90% of Malaysians can't spend much in the first place....

so long china buys our palm oil, the 10% will be okay....
SUStat3179
post Dec 2 2013, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 2 2013, 04:24 PM)
15% TNB price hike confirmed. Effective 1 Jan 2014.
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After CNY petrol increase by another 20 cents..... brows.gif
SUStat3179
post Dec 9 2013, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 09:10 AM)
7 months and only 50% sold and they call that good?

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...dy-in-2017.aspx
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Everything's relative...

maybe for that class of props at Iskandar region it is considered goodleh...

I mean, not any ahkow ah beng can simply buy multi million props just like that...
SUStat3179
post Dec 9 2013, 09:49 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 09:47 AM)
Iskandar was built with the sole intention of luring Singaporean investors. But with the recent curbs implemented by the Gov, how do they expect this project to appreciate in future? If I were an investor, why would I pump in RM2 mil for a condo in JB when I can pump that same amount (or slightly more) and get one in the Golden Triangle in KL with much better prospects for capital appreciation?
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Until the HSR is complete, I think singaporeans think that KL is too far....

JB, crime infested it was, is still near to their home base.

If I am singaporean, I will invest in Iskandar.

Likewise I only invest in KV because I know the area and I could manage my investment better.
SUStat3179
post Dec 9 2013, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 10:16 AM)
The key difference is that KL doesn't need Singaporean investors while Iskandar is almost totally reliant on Singaporeans. 70% of the properties in Iskandar bought by non Malaysians were purchased by Singaporeans.

And yes if u were a Singaporean you would invest in Iskandar but would you invest in a RM2 mil (starting price) condo or would you invest in a landed property?

That's my point.
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Aiyah...1mil or 2mil ringgit props are dirt cheap to them mah.... biggrin.gif

huge condos somemore, not like some bird cage HDB flats that could get for the same bucks back home...
SUStat3179
post Dec 9 2013, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Dec 9 2013, 11:00 AM)
Then why is the take up rate only 50% 7 months after the initial launch?
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Dunno...maybe the recent umno antics them off leh? biggrin.gif

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