Agreed. Try to consider self contribution EPF, Amanah Saham, Bonds(if you a HNWI).
Sovereign bonds of countries with stable currencies would be a good choice as well.

Gold will go down along with GDP contraction.

To really enter a bear market you will need two factor. Pessimism and fundamentals to backup the pessimism.

There has been many sell off since 08 in the past due to negative news eg brexit, greece default, rate hike etc. But so far all those sell off later rebounded and achieve all time high again due to earning reports showing good result.

But this round is different as i think by 6 /12 months in you will see the full effect of the trade wars in earning reports. This kind of bad fundamental would likely tipped the market over to an official bear territory

I see. And I agree. So many things not going right. Just waiting for a major one to erupt and the rest will follow, last straw to break the camel's back.

The trade war is eroding away the earnings in the USA, China, EU and others.

My fear is the Iran USA you-dare-me I-dare-you and accidentally start a war there which may pull other countries into the conflict.


P/S Got this email today. A report from a Dr. Doom on the economy. Ha. To respect his copyright, I only share just a page from his report. He is saying a crash later in 2019 or early 2020 from his technical analysis, which is similar to your 6-12 months. Sure you are not this Dr guy? Ha. Just in case some friends here want to correct me, saying no one can predict the crash, yes, I agree cannot predict down to the day, week or month. But best to be better prepared NOW before it comes.



This post has been edited by plumberly: May 26 2019, 03:31 PM

Normally a crash is preceded by a bubble. Is there a bubble? How extend is this bubble? Is this bubble impose systemic risks?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 26 2019, 04:06 PM

There is a debt bubble globally. Because of low interest rates, there is a lof debt out there n the world. Some thing can prick this bubble say Trade War.?

Debts bubble in China corporates and property sectors. To certain extent, debts bubble in boleh land property.

The trade war's effects are grossly exaggerated by the media lah.

Read this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-media...iffs-2019-05-14

StashAway's CIO also believes the trade war is overrated.

IMHO, most members of the media are no smarter or more knowledgeable than anyone else ... the industry does not attract the best and brightest ... they come up with flashy headlines and alarming stories to attract eyeballs.

It's just unfortunate that the herd are fooled into panic selling.


This post has been edited by GenY: May 26 2019, 08:13 PM

Yeah. We hear a lot about China's corporate debt, because media wants to paint the opposite side as vulnerable.

But European and US corporate debt is also in pretty bad shape. Fed just talked about it recently, plus CDOs/CLOs are back.

What are gearing ratio and operating cash to total debt ratio of u.s, european and chinese companies?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 27 2019, 03:16 AM

Saw this today, not that I was searching high and low for crash news.

Paul Gambles was the guy who predicted the Thai baht depreciation and the Asian currency crisis in 1997. No one is that lucky to correctly predict major crisis twice in a row?

Look at the headline at the bottom.

Check CNA if you want to have a look at that video.

Tq bro,.. For my SG holdings, I think I'm going to continue holding-on to my SG REITs, UMS and Astrea IV - wi;; not sell this month. I will even subscribe to the Rights Issue of Frasers Centrepoint Trust, but I will not apply for too many Excesses.

The true trade war effects is not in the country numbers as per the article highlight. You need to look at how people will behave. When the media served as a scarecrow, and the situation played out is relatable to the general public, eg loss of job, slow down in orders, loss of contract etc. Even how small these impact really is, there is a likelihood it will set of a chain of larger effect, eg people will start delaying purchase of luxury items, a loss in appetite for further business capital investment, slow down in hiring etc. When all this come together, you will see in hard figure the economy has slowed and the future 6 / 12 months corporate earnings will reflect this. By that time stocks will be cheap, and if you have cash there is bound to be good bargain.

That said, my portfolio is still 70% in stocks, and i don't plan to withdraw it. To time the market is almost impossible, so for now i'm planning to limit my participation in the market until i see improving outlook on the company financials and that optimism for global growth is back on the table.

Hmm, would you trust everyone who got things twice right though ?

In other words, it's the sentiments (not economic fundamentals) that are hit badly. And the negativity and uncertainty leads to a overall slowdown in economic activities, like what we experienced for past one year in Malaysia.

I'm going to stay invested as well. There's no economic crisis, World War 3 or banking meltdown to justify the dumping of quality stocks. Things could turn around suddenly with a tweet from the fickle Tariff Man.

In the short term, the market is on random walk.

China’s corporate debt stood at 155 per cent of GDP in the second quarter of 2018, much higher than other major economies, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In comparison, Japan’s corporate debt level is 100 per cent of GDP and is 74 per cent in the US. China’s corporate debt includes issuances by its local government vehicles which by extension is mostly credit with an implicit guarantee from the central government.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/...-bubble-led-its

No need for clarification actually. When you have taken a position, of course you hope you are right and profit from your action. Human nature.

Where do you park your money currently ? If your cash is idling, you will have more reason to search crash news high and low every day. In fact you may shut yourself to the markets which are still stubbornly high to justify your stance.

2 places:
* in ASX
* spent some! Ha. Time to reward myself. Have not used a single cent from that investment for more than 15 years.

My English is poor, I don't understand your ...

"you may shut yourself to the markets which are still stubbornly high to justify your stance"

Happy with my action? 50-50, depending on the where the price is on a particular day. It is like on a mini roller coaster now.

BUT ....

glad to be able to say that I am not worried now and do not ask myself should I sell the shares when some major negative events appear on everyday news.

Like the song - My Way, "regret I have a few, but too few to mention." And this is not one of them! Ha.

So many experienced and proven investors has express their view that the valuation is extremely high and what the world did after 08 - massive global QE is unprecedented and by logic is not sustainable. This create the effect of massive increase in Asset Value as compared to yield. Which create this super big gap between rich and poor as rich get richer, cause the rich hold a lot of Assets which are now highly valued.

However many that have this view like Charlie Munger still has their feet in the water, because they just don't know when the music will stop or how this new QE and printing money dynamic will play out. And of all low yield item, stock is still the best place to be optimistic about i guess.

But then we just beat out the 90s - 00s dot com bubble bull run. So if history repeat itself there is a possibility we get wiped out 50 - 70% of our portfolio value especially on hot stock like the FANG gang. That is a scary possibility haha.

If we continue to hold,.. and are not affected by margin calls, the mkt will always bounce back !