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Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?
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SUSGenY
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Oct 9 2018, 06:58 PM
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Getting Started

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My bold prediction is that this is a major (and particularly nasty and long) correction. Once the trade war crap settles, the bull will return and will continue for some time.
China and HK markets (and some of their blue chips) already down 20-30%. Some of the smalls and mid caps already down 50%.
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SUSGenY
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May 26 2019, 07:45 PM
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Getting Started

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The trade war's effects are grossly exaggerated by the media lah. Read this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-media...iffs-2019-05-14StashAway's CIO also believes the trade war is overrated. IMHO, most members of the media are no smarter or more knowledgeable than anyone else ... the industry does not attract the best and brightest ... they come up with flashy headlines and alarming stories to attract eyeballs. It's just unfortunate that the herd are fooled into panic selling. QUOTE(ChAOoz @ May 25 2019, 09:16 PM) To really enter a bear market you will need two factor. Pessimism and fundamentals to backup the pessimism. There has been many sell off since 08 in the past due to negative news eg brexit, greece default, rate hike etc. But so far all those sell off later rebounded and achieve all time high again due to earning reports showing good result. But this round is different as i think by 6 /12 months in you will see the full effect of the trade wars in earning reports. This kind of bad fundamental would likely tipped the market over to an official bear territory This post has been edited by GenY: May 26 2019, 08:13 PM
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SUSGenY
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May 28 2019, 12:31 AM
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In other words, it's the sentiments (not economic fundamentals) that are hit badly. And the negativity and uncertainty leads to a overall slowdown in economic activities, like what we experienced for past one year in Malaysia. I'm going to stay invested as well. There's no economic crisis, World War 3 or banking meltdown to justify the dumping of quality stocks. Things could turn around suddenly with a tweet from the fickle Tariff Man. QUOTE(ChAOoz @ May 27 2019, 01:45 PM) The true trade war effects is not in the country numbers as per the article highlight. You need to look at how people will behave. When the media served as a scarecrow, and the situation played out is relatable to the general public, eg loss of job, slow down in orders, loss of contract etc. Even how small these impact really is, there is a likelihood it will set of a chain of larger effect, eg people will start delaying purchase of luxury items, a loss in appetite for further business capital investment, slow down in hiring etc. When all this come together, you will see in hard figure the economy has slowed and the future 6 / 12 months corporate earnings will reflect this. By that time stocks will be cheap, and if you have cash there is bound to be good bargain. That said, my portfolio is still 70% in stocks, and i don't plan to withdraw it. To time the market is almost impossible, so for now i'm planning to limit my participation in the market until i see improving outlook on the company financials and that optimism for global growth is back on the table.
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SUSGenY
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Jul 15 2019, 08:09 PM
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For many "investors" and even a famous old man, low PE is a must.
Funny thing is, my two best performing counters in Bursa this one month have high PEs.
Counter R, with PE of about 40, shot up > 50% 1-2 days after I bought it.
Counter P, with PE of about 25, have been unimpressive for 1-2 years. Suddenly, in 1 week, it nearly tripled in price. It's my second best performing counter ever, my top counter was a six bagger HK/China small cap.
To be honest, my positions in all 3 counters are small. And I have many disappointments as well. One can never be sure which one will pleasantly surprise or disappoint.
This post has been edited by GenY: Jul 15 2019, 08:12 PM
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SUSGenY
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Jul 15 2019, 08:37 PM
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Important thing is the price shoot up and the investor makes $. The rest are blah, blah ... Correct me if I'm wrong, but are u the 23 yo fella who told me last year his dad sold also cleared his stocks in preparation for the coming crash ... and later demanded proof when I posted that my stocks performed well despite the violent swings or something like that QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 15 2019, 08:18 PM) Just because these stocks shoot up doesn't mean anything. P/E is relative. Healthy P/E should be around 10-15 but depends on industry. Expect Tech industry to be around 15-20. Price shooting up but P/E 50+ could mean it was making loss in one of the quarter, highly speculative of future earnings (political stock) etc. Still overvalued in my opinion
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SUSGenY
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Jul 15 2019, 09:31 PM
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Ha, if 100% loss I 14th floor already. Trading/investing is like black/white cat. Deng Xiaoping once said: "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice". QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Jul 15 2019, 08:46 PM) Buying for short term then selling to lock in gains is not investing. More like trading. I don't recall asking for proof. Maybe because the evidence wasn't delivered. I also believe majority of the stocks in Malaysia have fallen since that post. Inb4, 3 month shows 50% gain but y-o-y shows 100% loss.
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SUSGenY
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Jul 16 2019, 09:10 PM
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Agreed, which is why I favour quality companies with good growth prospects, companies with wind at their backs ... rather than just companies with low PE. QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 16 2019, 09:27 AM) PE is historical data, and with economy slowing down and specific sector facing headwind, PE is not a good indicator. As stock market is forward looking mechanism, while PE is looking at the past issue. In fact, sometimes low PE can be a value trap. As some companies may report one off big disposal gain for the past year, which may not be recurrence in the future.
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