since the beginning of this post sinec August last year. Has TS managed to reduce your positions significantly in anticipating the incoming crash?

What do you think? Ha.

I have sold more than 98% of it in Dec.

Ya, a rookie chicken who should not be in the shares market?

   

certain stocks if you hold it from Dec till now, you could have seen another small gains though. cleared positions too early?

Yes and no, depending on which day you compare with. To me, it is never too early but most of the time, too late.

My decision to go ahead is to avoid the non SWAN, asking myself what should I do when I hear bad news on the global scene and that industry. So desperate? It is part of my retirement fund, so have to be extra careful. Dont mind suffering some losses (on potential future gain) even if the recession comes much later.

According to some regulatory reports, next financial or economic crisis will likely trigger by fed rate rise and impact could be more widely than previous crisis.

De-gearing is a common sense going forward.

According to some regulatory reports, next financial or economic crisis will likely trigger by fed rate rise and impact could be more widely than previous crisis.

De-gearing is a common sense going forward.

Meaning 2019 = 2017

2020 = 2018

Fed will be no hike this year. In fact there's signal to reduce in q4.

yes, noted on that.
always protect the capital, this is super important too.

Mind sharing the links? Thanks.

My layman's gut feel is a huge dip, mainly due to putting plasters here and there trying to cure a major illness. Plasters here = QE.

New strain of viruses = DT, BREXIT, NKorea, etc

Ha.

NK is not an issue for global financial market. It is more about political instead of economy.
Brexit won't impact whole world economy, except Br and specific stocks related to BR.

The fear is with dovish Fed (so quick stopping the hike cycle), it may fuel another asset bubble (worldwide equities rising non-stop), and with still low US interest rate, it may not have enough "ammunition" to handle next bubble crisis.

Last time, 2008, Fed rate was 5% before crisis hit, then at least for 5% "ammunition"
Now, only 2.5% already halt the rate hike.

Low interest rate mean economic growth is fragile. Interest rate drop could only mean economic growth is under threat, is not a good news at all.

NK is not an issue for global financial market. It is more about political instead of economy.
Brexit won't impact whole world economy, except Br and specific stocks related to BR.

The fear is with dovish Fed (so quick stopping the hike cycle), it may fuel another asset bubble (worldwide equities rising non-stop), and with still low US interest rate, it may not have enough "ammunition" to handle next bubble crisis.

Last time, 2008, Fed rate was 5% before crisis hit, then at least for 5% "ammunition"
Now, only 2.5% already halt the rate hike.

New principle added to my investment dictionary.

According to some regulatory reports, next financial or economic crisis will likely trigger by fed rate rise and impact could be more widely than previous crisis.

De-gearing is a common sense going forward.

NK is not an issue for global financial market. It is more about political instead of economy.

***  My fear is political tension which escalated into war will have impacts on global economy. Just image what will happen if Mr Rocket man fired off an ICBM to you know where. NK radar will see many black birds heading his way on the screen. Global trade will take a sudden dip and many countries will go into survival mode. Just wondering, how were the economy during WW1 and WW2?

Brexit won't impact whole world economy, except Br and specific stocks related to BR.

***  My childish feel is, BR has global trade reach. Ditto for EU. So when they suffer, others far away will feel some pain too when they reduce or stop their business overseas.

The fear is with dovish Fed (so quick stopping the hike cycle), it may fuel another asset bubble (worldwide equities rising non-stop), and with still low US interest rate, it may not have enough "ammunition" to handle next bubble crisis.

***  FED has much more knowledge and skill than me but when they started to increase the rate, one after another, I felt that they were building up medicine for the next recession. What can they do if there is not much % to start with? I guess they can go over to the dark side of the moon (negative rate) and/or start QE again.

Last time, 2008, Fed rate was 5% before crisis hit, then at least for 5% "ammunition"
Now, only 2.5% already halt the rate hike.

I would look at it like this : this time, the Feds are more attentive to world events, and more sensitive to whatever that is happening in the world, however big or small. Hence, quick actions have been put in place before it's too late. Yes - Feds holding rates also points to weaker economic growth today compared to earlier. But isn't it good that the Feds stops in time ?

***  Read that FED was too fast (or too slow?) in adjusting the rate which later triggered a recession in the past. Guess this global economy is a wild temperamental beast.

In 2008, what happened back then was not something that the Feds could see coming. The subprime crisis happened overnight, and Bear Stearns was the first to start giving bad signals. That was a totally different scenario compared to what we have today. Of course, Feds had the 5% ammo back then - this 5% contributed to the crisis too, besides easy-lending practices and no control over loans back then.

***  Watched a video on lessons from 2008 recession some years ago. Govt bailed out banks and stopped at Lehman. Then the crash followed. If the govt also bailed out Lehman, would that prevented the recession? I dont  think so, another major bad news then would start the recession.

You don't protect your investment when inflation is sky high rocket.

But lucky enough TS made a great choice especially with malaysia current situation, cash is king.

***  My success yardstick depends on how much the shares I have sold will drop and also how long it will take for it to recover. If close to 2008 recession, then I will be smiling.     

I look back the timeline of 2008 crisis.

It's took nearly half a year to cook up the crisis. Starting from bad lending. IT WAS JAN that fed decrease the rate. And some of the policy was made to boost the housing. Then the gov keep buying back bad debt and Indy Mac bank was the 1st who face a bank run.

***  Read a myth that recession will start 2 years after the FED has started the rate increase. Fed started the increase back in 2015. So already 2 years now. So, tak betul.

Up to Sept 2008, the collapse of Lehman brother trigger it.

Gov decided to let go because they already take up Fraddie, as well as AIG.

Not sure whether I got it right or not because I was too young during that time.

As you all mentioned every financial crisis will have a totally different trigger point. I suppose after the crisis in 2008, they regulated it and prevent it from happening again.

But fed being suddenly Dovish is a signal and of they quickly lower down the rate then we should be aware. 1 thing I realize is that during that time gold shoot and oil down. Which is contra to what we are having now.

Putting those things aside, Honestly speaking, 2008 mortgage crisis reflect exactly the same as we face in props sector in Malaysia, right now. Just that BNM tightened the rules few years back to prevent it deteriorated.

***  Didnt know our property market is like that now.

So if we are expecting rate cuts, bond funds will be a beneficiary right?

I would look at it like this : this time, the Feds are more attentive to world events, and more sensitive to whatever that is happening in the world, however big or small. Hence, quick actions have been put in place before it's too late. Yes - Feds holding rates also points to weaker economic growth today compared to earlier. But isn't it good that the Feds stops in time ?

In 2008, what happened back then was not something that the Feds could see coming. The subprime crisis happened overnight, and Bear Stearns was the first to start giving bad signals. That was a totally different scenario compared to what we have today. Of course, Feds had the 5% ammo back then - this 5% contributed to the crisis too, besides easy-lending practices and no control over loans back then.

NK contributes sentiment to the financial world - this has been proven many times.

Brexit contributes to problems in The Eurozone, and The Eurozone, as a big economic bloc, influences world financial mkts. This was proven back in 2016 when world mkts drop after the Referendum results, after that victory speech by Nigel (something),.... When the votes were being counted and as we see more and more voters leaning towards separation, world indices dropped lower and lower,...

You don't protect your investment when inflation is sky high rocket.

But lucky enough TS made a great choice especially with malaysia current situation, cash is king.