Good to see another bear in this cave! a.

Mind sharing what you have prepared for the coming winter season, why etc. Good to learn from others.

Thanks.

AA
For the small caps, how did they cop in the last recession? Small drops? I thought small caps are volatile in winter season.

BB
Why bearish on oil? I am bearish on oil too. Just curious.

Thanks.

Debts bubble in China corporates and property sectors. To certain extent, debts bubble in boleh land property.

But if the fundamental of the gang is solid, will the 50% wipeofff possible?

Because back then bubble dot com was on not really stable income stream. Look at what we had now.... We can't leave our life without any of the fang products.

Can Stable consumer and income stream cushion the shock?

And some people point out that the tariff war is so small in number and most of the sell off recently are mainly sentimental and baseless.

What remain the true is high valuation. But I think high valuation in US equities I suppose.

Emerging and other market are way below their PE.

Btw, our local market had touch it's low on 1.6k. worthwhile to consider some dividend counter....

No insight at all, just my personal opinion 

Based on my limited reading, Deutsche bank’s problem is internal business decisions and directions (high risk appetite) the management took, which landed them in such predicament now. It does not happen overnight, but years of business strategy which turned bad. I would equate it to the likes of Nokia and Kodak, the downfall which was a result of series of bad management decisions.

The health of banking system depends more on the structural integrity of the whole industry, which is the collective responsibilities of the different governments.

The collapse of Lehman Bros (and a few others) was mainly due to sub-prime loans, which at that time was not regulated by US banking regulators. The whole financial industry were involved, even affected outside of USA as the banks packaged it and re-sold the sub-prime loans overseas.

So I think Duetsche Bank’s case, which is a result of bad internal management decisions, could not be compared to Lehman Bros. collapse

Next economic crisis unlikely to be banks. Banks already learnt their lesson.
Last time anyone can simply get a loan. Now there is stringent background checks and improved accounting standards to provide better financial reporting.

I'm referring to consumers you and me. Fraud can happen anytime.

Cool. So you're all cash right?