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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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TSplumberly
post Jul 5 2020, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 5 2020, 07:56 PM)
a nothing
b buy more
c nothing
d may rebalance portfolio depends on how much greater it is compared to other ETFs.
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To quantify the gain/loss, your a,b,c,d are in line with this.


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Krv23490
post Jul 5 2020, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 5 2020, 08:25 PM)
To quantify the gain/loss, your a,b,c,d are in line with this.
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if buy every month how ? jan feb march april may june
moosset
post Jul 5 2020, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 5 2020, 08:25 PM)
To quantify the gain/loss, your a,b,c,d are in line with this.
Attached Image
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meaning? I don't understand. confused.gif

anyway, in light of current situation, I wouldn't buy more of SPX unless it's less than my average price.... until we are close to the finishing line for this pandemic.

I've other ETFs / candidates to buy in the mean time.
TSplumberly
post Jul 11 2020, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 5 2020, 08:59 PM)
meaning? I don't understand.  confused.gif

anyway, in light of current situation, I wouldn't buy more of SPX unless it's less than my average price.... until we are close to the finishing line for this pandemic.

I've other ETFs / candidates to buy in the mean time.
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Sorry, that was to quantify the impacts instead of just based on gut feel.

Quantitative analysis may not be spot on all the time but to me, it is a good guide rope to find better options. Just my view.
Krv23490
post Dec 31 2020, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jul 4 2020, 12:27 PM)
So what i am stating is that clearly selling everything or during a crash DID NOT work this year.. in fact, if you added into the sp500.. would have beat fixed deposit
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 4 2020, 12:30 PM)
This year is not over yet.
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looks like beat FD indeed

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 5 2020, 11:44 AM)
p/e will settle either in new norm level or back to earth.

As u.s is inching closer to u.s presidential election, spending priority between DT, senate and Congress are different.
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oops

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 5 2020, 07:31 PM)
#ddtg don't look at result or future.

excess liquidity will lead to assets inflation; assets inflation is unsustainable bubble and ponzi scheme as described by Prof rj Schiller. if any budget approved by congress, will be more inclined to benefit the main street rather than the wall street.

with many borders largely closed, v shape or even u shape recovery later this year is unlikely.
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oops

QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 11 2020, 09:40 AM)
Sorry, that was to quantify the impacts instead of just based on gut feel.

Quantitative analysis may not be spot on all the time but to me, it is a good guide rope to find better options. Just my view.
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Stocks are poised to end 2020 at record highs as most Asian equities gained in curtailed trading on the last day of the year.

cheerio!
prophetjul
post Dec 31 2020, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Dec 31 2020, 03:03 PM)
looks like beat FD indeed
oops
oops
Stocks are poised to end 2020 at record highs as most Asian equities gained in curtailed trading on the last day of the year.

cheerio!
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Surprisingly 2020 turn out to be a very Good year for equities.
TeeKanne
post Dec 31 2020, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 31 2020, 03:58 PM)
Surprisingly 2020 turn out to be a very Good year for equities.
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definitely, made >40% gain on my portfolio. so not bad lah.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2020, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Dec 31 2020, 03:03 PM)
looks like beat FD indeed
oops
oops
Stocks are poised to end 2020 at record highs as most Asian equities gained in curtailed trading on the last day of the year.

cheerio!
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user posted image

Opportunity favour the prepared mind.

Krv23490
post Dec 31 2020, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 31 2020, 03:58 PM)
Surprisingly 2020 turn out to be a very Good year for equities.
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QUOTE(TeeKanne @ Dec 31 2020, 03:59 PM)
definitely, made >40% gain on my portfolio. so not bad lah.
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 31 2020, 04:01 PM)
user posted image

Opportunity favour the prepared mind.
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have a good nye and stay safe !
Cubalagi
post Dec 31 2020, 04:27 PM

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LOL. My fav thread in lowyat investment forum. Is back.. 🤣

Happy New Year everyone, esp TS!

Hope for an even better year next year.

moosset
post Dec 31 2020, 06:00 PM

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so the crash came and left? Need to open another thread for another crash?
Cubalagi
post Jan 1 2021, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Dec 31 2020, 06:00 PM)
so the crash came and left? Need to open another thread for another crash?
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No need open new thread lah.

The crash came and gone.

KLCI has ended 2020 slightly higher than where it was at end of 2019. It's low was on 19 March 2020. This was what I said the very next day on the stock exchange (now gloves exchange) thread.

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 20 2020, 05:29 PM)
Let's hope that KLCI lowest point of 1207 yesterday will be history for a long time...

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400 points crash and rebound.

Having said that, we are still far from KLCI peak back in 2018. I think got chance we reach there by end 2021 or early 2022.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 1 2021, 11:35 AM
ChAOoz
post Jan 1 2021, 11:48 AM

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Hindsight 20/20, but seemed like staying vested was the right choice for 2020.

Happy new year everyone.
honsiong
post Jan 1 2021, 09:13 PM

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Why got duplicate thread one? https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4995576
Hansel
post Jan 2 2021, 04:15 PM

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Happy New Year, bros,...

Yeah, looks like staying invested is good for 2020. But the swing was terrible,.. at portfolio level,... I recalled my portfolio fell to -3% back in end-March last year. And recovered to close at +34.5% on THursday close. But this was after I did modifications to my holdings during the plunge.

For any new investors who entered in March last year and continued to hold-on, chances are,... they are quite high in their profit levels now. And for any US tech stock and vaccine stock investors who have bought bfore last year and are continuing to hold-on to their ctrs, this group would be highly profitable too now.
aspartame
post Jan 3 2021, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jan 1 2021, 11:34 AM)
No need open new thread lah.

The crash came and gone.

KLCI has ended 2020 slightly higher than where it was at end of 2019. It's low was on 19 March 2020. This was what I said the very next day on the stock exchange (now gloves exchange) thread.
400 points crash and rebound.

Having said that, we are still far from KLCI peak back in 2018. I think got chance we reach there by end 2021 or early 2022.
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Did you say the low on 19th March 2020 was the low? If yes, kudos! I am sure those who sold off before the crash (they claimed lah) would have bought back most, if not all of their holdings right around the lows...😅

If markets had continued lower, they would say we are still far away from knee deep in blood...
Cubalagi
post Jan 3 2021, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Jan 3 2021, 04:10 PM)
Did you say the low on 19th March 2020 was the low? If yes, kudos! I am sure those who sold off before the crash (they claimed lah) would have bought back most, if not all of their holdings right around the lows...😅

If markets had continued lower, they would say we are still far away from knee deep in blood...
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Yup,

Thursday, 19 March 2020 was the low for KLCI when it dropped to 1207 points. The whole week was scary time. The day before was the start of the MCO. On the 19th, the Chairman of the Malaysian stockbroking association was quoted saying that Bursa Malaysia should be suspended until MCO was over. Investors rushed out to the door. Late afternoon, the regulators clarified that they will not suspend bursa but they suspended short selling instead.

The bottom for S&P happened slightly later, the next week on 23rd March 2020 at 2237 points.

S&P closed 2020 last week at 3759 points. 68% up from the bottom. Fbmklci at 1627. That's 35% up.




TSplumberly
post Jul 14 2022, 10:05 AM

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Wondering what others are doing now with a huge storm on the horizon.

Sold off my overseas shares a few weeks ago. Now going back to my cave to hibernate with Carlsberg smooth. Ha. this time no warning signs analysis. Just do it! Ha.
Davidtcf
post Jul 14 2022, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 14 2022, 10:05 AM)
Wondering what others are doing now with a huge storm on the horizon.

Sold off my overseas shares a few weeks ago. Now going back to my cave to hibernate with Carlsberg smooth. Ha. this time no warning signs analysis. Just do it! Ha.
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Did you manage to sell all before December 2021 / January 2022? That was when the crash happened.

The moment inflation was announced as high, and Fed decided to raise interest rates, people started panic selling.
Hansel
post Jul 15 2022, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 14 2022, 10:05 AM)
Wondering what others are doing now with a huge storm on the horizon.

Sold off my overseas shares a few weeks ago. Now going back to my cave to hibernate with Carlsberg smooth. Ha. this time no warning signs analysis. Just do it! Ha.
*
I continued to hold-on to my SG REITs. They still paying me dividends, tho' prices have dropped. My total portfolio is still in the green,... hovering above 33%... I will see more development in the coming qtrly reports to be announced this month and the next. SPH REIT's looks good.

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