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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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AthrunIJ
post Jul 17 2022, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 17 2022, 01:40 PM)
Heard about DCA in the early years when I was into unit trusts but did not practice it.

Mind sharing why you think DCA is the way to go? Maybe I overlooked something important. Thanks.

To me, it is a sales invention by the UT industry to generate sales (and thus commissions for the agents) every month. They don't have to do much and get monthly commissions. Good job. UT agents, please don't launch nuclear missiles at me. Read a few books where the authors are anti DCA.

Yes, I have seen graphs illustrating the positive gains from using DCA. It works in some cases. But I feel it is better to just stop buying, and save the money till you see a "confirmed" uptrend. Then you will get a lot more at a cheaper price. No one can predict where is the dip bottom. But with some study, it is possible to gauge with some certainty where it has turned for the better. A combination of moving average, Bollinger band, Coppock curve, RSI, etc., etc. Of course, nothing is 100% certain. If WW3 breaks out after the uptrend has started, 99% of the shares will head south.

My 2 cents (which is worth less now with increases in prices).
*
DCA is for passive investment which I like. I dont have the skills to check the market and know it is uptrending or not and etc.

But in the long term, market as a whole will be uptrending is what i read about so with DCA to average it all out.

As in during the bears, we would buy more stocks as the price is lower and during the bull runs we would buy less as the price is higher. But the beauty of it is we can set the amount to dca, so if recession I would double down and bull keep it normal etc.

And I am DIY without any middle men.

If ww3 break out, stock market is the least of our problem..

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Jul 17 2022, 02:59 PM
Ramjade
post Jul 17 2022, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 17 2022, 01:40 PM)
Heard about DCA in the early years when I was into unit trusts but did not practice it.

Mind sharing why you think DCA is the way to go? Maybe I overlooked something important. Thanks.

To me, it is a sales invention by the UT industry to generate sales (and thus commissions for the agents) every month. They don't have to do much and get monthly commissions. Good job. UT agents, please don't launch nuclear missiles at me. Read a few books where the authors are anti DCA.

Yes, I have seen graphs illustrating the positive gains from using DCA. It works in some cases. But I feel it is better to just stop buying, and save the money till you see a "confirmed" uptrend. Then you will get a lot more at a cheaper price. No one can predict where is the dip bottom. But with some study, it is possible to gauge with some certainty where it has turned for the better. A combination of moving average, Bollinger band, Coppock curve, RSI, etc., etc. Of course, nothing is 100% certain. If WW3 breaks out after the uptrend has started, 99% of the shares will head south.

My 2 cents (which is worth less now with increases in prices).
*
I give you a modified version. Buy more when things are on sale or buy lesser or don't buy when things are expensive. That way overtime you get the average. You can never get the lowest point unless you have some fantastic algorithm. But get low enough is good enough.
Jitty
post Jul 17 2022, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 16 2022, 11:20 AM)
Yep,I will continue to dca even double down
*
haha.. yeah.

but remember, dont put all egg in 1 basket cool2.gif
AthrunIJ
post Jul 17 2022, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jul 17 2022, 07:00 PM)
haha.. yeah.

but remember, dont put all egg in 1 basket  cool2.gif
*
Current spread between sreits and etf

👀

Too much diversification is not too good with small amount of investment money

😭
ChAOoz
post Jul 18 2022, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2022, 08:27 PM)
laugh.gif

The main point was selling based on assumption that the market will crash was a pretty bad idea. Proven time and time again.

Initial post was Aug 2018......
whistling.gif
*
Well timing market not my forte so i leave it to ts.

Usually i only do some rebalancing and rotates fund around either defensive or growth based on their valuations, but very seldom i take money off the table.
Boon3
post Jul 18 2022, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jul 18 2022, 09:09 AM)
Well timing market not my forte so i leave it to ts.

Usually i only do some rebalancing and rotates fund around either defensive or growth based on their valuations, but very seldom i take money off the table.
*
... what blew my mind then was the refusal to accept that such strategy is nothing but market timing. wink.gif

oh well....


it's a good time to observe.... hehe...

for example... I am an investor so when drop I will buy more. laugh.gif




Boon3
post Jul 18 2022, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 17 2022, 07:11 PM)
Current spread between sreits and etf

👀

Too much diversification is not too good with small amount of investment money

😭
*
Dude... this is free for you... no sens attached... tongue.gif laugh.gif

not all etfs are the same ya... some carry more risk than others...... so ___________ icon_rolleyes.gif
AthrunIJ
post Jul 18 2022, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 09:20 AM)
Dude... this is free for you... no sens attached... tongue.gif laugh.gif

not all etfs are the same ya... some carry more risk than others...... so ___________   icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Dah tau.

Chill dude.

For now still good.

Deflation from boon gor wor. Very rare 🤭

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Jul 18 2022, 09:23 AM
Boon3
post Jul 18 2022, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 18 2022, 09:22 AM)
Dah tau.

Chill dude.

For now still good.

Deflation from boon gor wor. Very rare 🤭
*
you are young...
save more money better....
put more into EPF....

biggrin.gif
ChAOoz
post Jul 18 2022, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 09:17 AM)
... what blew my mind then was the refusal to accept that such strategy is nothing but market timing. wink.gif

oh well....
it's a good time to observe.... hehe...

for example... I am an investor so when drop I will buy more.  laugh.gif
*
Well market not the best right now, so the less one do the less mistake will happen.

Share price wise many company will be hit by volatility due to changing fundamentals, some margin impacted some sales slowing and some might lose access to cheap funding.

Not sure how this will all play out, it might resolve itself or government intervene and we have another relief rally or the real bear cycle approach. Either way im defensive for now
AthrunIJ
post Jul 18 2022, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 09:32 AM)
you are young...
save more money better....
put more into EPF....

biggrin.gif
*
I don't trust MYR

Already lost half the value to USD

🤭
Boon3
post Jul 18 2022, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 18 2022, 10:06 AM)
I don't trust MYR

Already lost half the value to USD

🤭
*
... heard such arguments b4...

well? Today you are in USA? or Malaysia?

You planning to spend USA dollars? Where? When?
Anytime soon?

yeah.... the things we buy are so much more expensive nowadays...
but... isn't it the same in many other countries?
inflation is everywhere... USA don't have? whistling.gif



and of course...
seen too often...
there are many who are scared of losing money due to inflation...
so they 'invest' and 'invest'....
got money... they just dump and dump and dump in the market....
suddenly this year.... market not good....
and their 'investment'?
many lost close to 50%.

not saying you, okay... icon_rolleyes.gif

but this is my observations, which I share with you free.... ONLY you... laugh.gif

yup... who knows... you are currently and handily beating the market biggrin.gif


but yeah....
AthrunIJ
post Jul 18 2022, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 10:18 AM)
... heard such arguments b4...

well? Today you are in USA? or Malaysia?

You planning to spend USA dollars? Where? When?
Anytime soon?

yeah.... the things we buy are so much more expensive nowadays...
but... isn't it the same in many other countries?
inflation is everywhere... USA don't have? whistling.gif
and of course...
seen too often...
there are many who are scared of losing money due to inflation...
so they 'invest' and 'invest'....
got money... they just dump and dump and dump in the market....
suddenly this year.... market not good....
and their 'investment'?
many lost close to 50%.

not saying you, okay...  icon_rolleyes.gif

but this is my observations, which I share with you free.... ONLY you... laugh.gif

yup... who knows... you are currently and handily beating the market biggrin.gif
but yeah....
*
Can always convert back.

Investment is in USD anyways.

And I prefer the liquidity which epf doesn't provide so yea

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Jul 18 2022, 10:36 AM
square2
post Jul 18 2022, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 10:18 AM)
... heard such arguments b4...

well? Today you are in USA? or Malaysia?

You planning to spend USA dollars? Where? When?
Anytime soon?

yeah.... the things we buy are so much more expensive nowadays...
but... isn't it the same in many other countries?
inflation is everywhere... USA don't have? whistling.gif
and of course...
seen too often...
there are many who are scared of losing money due to inflation...
so they 'invest' and 'invest'....
got money... they just dump and dump and dump in the market....
suddenly this year.... market not good....
and their 'investment'?
many lost close to 50%.

not saying you, okay...  icon_rolleyes.gif

but this is my observations, which I share with you free.... ONLY you... laugh.gif

yup... who knows... you are currently and handily beating the market biggrin.gif
but yeah....
*
this year down 50%, next 3 years up 100%

comes with free dividend if they issue
Boon3
post Jul 18 2022, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 18 2022, 10:36 AM)
Can always convert back.

Investment is in USD anyways.

And I prefer the liquidity which epf doesn't provide so yea
*
Ahhh... investment in USD. Of course.

biggrin.gif
AthrunIJ
post Jul 18 2022, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 18 2022, 10:57 AM)
Ahhh... investment in USD. Of course.

biggrin.gif
*
No boon gor deflation cents?

😭
Jitty
post Jul 19 2022, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 17 2022, 07:11 PM)
Current spread between sreits and etf

👀

Too much diversification is not too good with small amount of investment money

😭
*
which platform bro ?
AthrunIJ
post Jul 19 2022, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jul 19 2022, 03:03 PM)
which platform bro ?
*
IBKR
Cubalagi
post Dec 17 2022, 07:56 PM

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Still my fav topic ..😆

Crashes come n go.

As we enter into 2023, are we going to see further market crash or a bull market?

The mainstream view seem to be that an economic slowdown is going to happen but it will be a soft landing thing. A mild tecession perhaps with Inflation having peaked and will slowly moderate.

But some, like Kathy Woods, are warning of deep recession and deflation, with inflation plunging to negatve.

Or in the worst case, deep recession but with persistently high inflation.

On top of all that you have gray swan events like the possibility of Ukraine-Russia conflict escalating n spreading to other countries. Political uncertainty etc.

What do you guys think? How are your portfolio positioned?

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Dec 17 2022, 08:38 PM
xander2k8
post Dec 18 2022, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Dec 17 2022, 07:56 PM)
Still my fav topic ..😆

Crashes come n go.

As we enter into 2023, are we going to see further market crash or a bull market?

The mainstream view seem to be that an economic slowdown is going to happen but it will be a soft landing thing. A mild tecession perhaps with Inflation having peaked and will slowly moderate.

But some, like Kathy Woods, are warning of deep recession and deflation, with inflation plunging to negatve.

Or in the worst case, deep recession but with persistently high inflation.

On top of all that you have gray swan events like the possibility of Ukraine-Russia conflict escalating n spreading to other countries. Political uncertainty etc.

What do you guys think? How are your portfolio positioned?
*
I wouldn’t read in too much with Cathie Wood as she been wrong since 2021 🤦‍♀️

Go to Bloomberg and you better off reading from a portfolio manager who performed at 20+% this year on his prediction for next year where it will be stagnant in 2023 while riding on a bull cycle within 24/25

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