He still owns 5% of apple though ! so ok laa, he did mention he regret not buying Amazon earlier. But he had a small stake in AMZN now, not sure whether he sold it off or not

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-...0503-story.html

Most tech counters ATH again . woohoo, lucky didnt clear AMZN before the coming crash

5% of apple still amazing of course. but u know la age 80++ what do u expect that age can understand technology better than youngster. Of course always late to the party.

if he understand fully like our young generation I am sure he will own more than that.

I hope in 10 years time we can see Nasdaq almost equivalent to Dow jones in term of point . I might be too greedy though

Growth stock has been outpacing value stock since the financial crisis. So naturally buffett and many of value fund are at best at par with S&P performance

So against conventional logic, I plan to pile more into value stock. Everyone has their decade i feel

This post has been edited by ChAOoz: Jul 2 2020, 01:05 PM

Tech rarely have value , cause most are growth stocks. I like tech even more because of its resilience even during the recent downturn. There will be a rotation too of course sooner or later ( 1 or 2 weeks ago, there was a small rotation where Qs were laggards instead) . Example, MSFT will do well if covid still persists or not. MSFT has a PE of 34 and AMZN has a PE of 137. Value in tech maybe ?

Who knows, but yeah , i hold both SP500 and Nasdaq etfs.

More like the power of #ddtg in play.

Bear camp, just got wiped out by the latest NFP numbers.

Even bad NFP the market is also partially immune. Now with good news, the rally going full force i guess.

@TS if there is no crash, your cash pile is going to get devalue very fast with all major economies in the world having a very loose monetary policy with no negative implications.

Just a matter of time i think US people gonna refinance en masse their house to bet on the stock market.

As they say, stocks only go up. Don't fight the FED. Crazzzy

Fomo, not unlike BTC craze.

Prof RJ Schiller said assets bubble is a Ponzi scheme.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 3 2020, 12:00 AM

Apple started with Macintosh, succeeded in early stage but faded away afterwards, Apple won't be as today if there is no revolution Iphone by Jobs
Nokia was dominant previously, look to concur the HP sector, and the rest is history after Iphone emerged.
Same with Netscape and Yahoo which in theory they do bet the right sector, so does the rest is history.

Yes, Tech for sure in the future growth story, but nobody can assure which company to thrive, which company to fall as tech is evolving fast nowadays, a wrong step by the tech company may easily mean future is total in risk.
Unlike traditional industry, tech is simply very hard to predict, but for sure there will always winners in the tech sector in the future. So the remaining question for investors, which one?

Most indices are likely to rise over the long term, as index will constantly remove those poorly performance company and replaced with better one.
Just like DJ, Apple is included in the DJ while decade ago, it wasn't.

When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” Prince said. “But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.”

History show, music tend to stop sooner than expected and most will get caught.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 3 2020, 10:55 AM

Made money already, so waiting for the music to stowly fade

You sitting on all cash ?

As a student of Prof RJ Schiller and Prof P Krugman, inclined to follow their teaching.

one can't make all the money in the world or all the time. like in any assets, there is time to buy, hold, sell and abstain.

one can defy fundamentals, gravity only temporary; long term equilibrium always prevail.

u.s economic recession started in february 2020 before covid19 impact and lock down. fed fire hose money may has spilled over to certain stocks but overall market remain on fire.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 3 2020, 11:27 AM

As a student of bogleheads, i never try to time the market and stay invested.

obviously cant win all the time but history has shown that will win, if stay invested with discipline and proper risk and asset allocation, so far, have been winning.

i too hope for prices to come down to buy more stuff . If AMZN drops to 1700 i will definitely pick more up . i just sold off 1/3 at 2900 yesterday to rebalance my portfolio. Hopefully you stayed in invested a little too instead of clearing everything before the coming crash .

Market go up , happy, and still SWAN as TS emphasize alot .

investors, traders, day traders and margin players game plan is different. trading i.e buy/sell by traders, day traders and margin players is timing the market by default.

reading fundamentals and data is not timing the market e.g tsla, is not dissimilar to dotcom bubble.

there are many investment theory and strategy, no one theory or strategy is beneficial all the time. some is good at certain time, some is good at another time. what matter is when one liquidate his assets.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 3 2020, 12:29 PM

of course if we talking about 20 years ago, everything is uncertain.

Just my observation since 4g started 5 years back, company like Alphabet, facebook ( while netflix , apple and amazon harder to see for me) is pretty much the obvious winner of the market because we are using it everyday they have a huge data mining on user and they will continue their shinning at least another next few years. correction of 20-30% in between might be occurs but they will continue climb and climb. even myself and many businessman subscribe their service and pay for the service since 3-4 years ago. Unlike 5 years back, we are looking for free service. now they are like the biggest advertisement company in the world since they have the world use. See google, fb, insta

what these big tech learn from yahoo and netscape & nokia failure is they doing company acquisition and obtain new technology and kick competition out from market. they super rich in cash keep and buying new technology.

people keep saying Nasdaq is bubble etc bla bla, for me I think this is just the starting of superbull run in technology.some People compared with dotcom bubble 2000, but now actually these tech giant are earning is incomparable compared to 2000 speculative non earning goreng stock.

Now market in fire and where does all the extra liquidity hide into? see Nasdaq.....Unlimited QE?lets see where all the liquidity go

I just a normal investor and give my view based my observation.

PS: I own these stock so probably my opinion is bias.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jul 3 2020, 01:13 PM

So which are you ? Day traders and margin players are having a ball now!

Of course, My investing portfolio is for the next 30 years and so far so good. As i mentioned, i am not good enough to time the market , so i just leave it in and so far its working compared to me attempting to time the market.

My margin account is doing allright too , playing the strong bull momentum.

Regarding dotcom bubble

In the eyes of tech faithful, however, it’s a strong case for staying bullish. Just consider the amount of money that tech titans like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. make now versus then. In the year just before the internet crash, companies in the S&P 500 Information Technology Index earned combined profits of roughly $50 billion. Last year, the total was $240 billion.

So while the Nasdaq 100 has come back to its heyday relative to the broader market, the underlying earnings power is almost five times as big as it was 20 years ago. That’s part of the reason Hodges Capital Management’s Bradshaw continues to hold on to some of the largest names in his portfolio, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...om-escape-speed

Stratgey which beneficial all the time is leaving it invested in the S&P 500 at least. (depends on your retirement age/risk)

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiri...timer-ever.html

If you are convinced of a downturn, can always short the market hehe, since long term equilibrium always prevail. Can buy some OTM puts on the SPY .

Economic student can't be a good day trader/margin player and vv.

Leaving in s&p 500 untouch is contradicting with traders philosophy. it is not easy for people to wear two hats at the same time.

well, so far i am ok with it, i have different accounts for different purposes , example FSM SGfor reits/dividends, IBKR for options and riskier plays

FSM MY for PRS/long term . SA for Long term..


Proper discipline and risk allocation

The Cost of Bad Market Timing Decisions in 2020 Was Annihilation


One stark statistic highlighting the risk focuses on the penalty an investor incurs by sitting out the biggest single-day gains. Without the best five, for instance, a tepid 2020 becomes a horrendous one: a loss of 30%.

“People are always hopeful that they can time the market, and most people try and time the market based on emotion rather than logic,” said Olivia Engel, chief investment officer of State Street Global Advisors’s active quantitative equity team. “From a couple of decades of investing, I would say that timing the market is just really hard and if it was easy, we’d all be very rich.”

“You can’t buy it one day and sell it the next and think you can outfox the market. You can’t do that,” said Gary Bradshaw, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. “The way you make money in the market is you buy good companies and you hold on.”

“We want to be tactical,” Yana Barton, a fund manager at Eaton Vance Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “But the problem is, it’s easy to get out and you don’t know when to get back in.”

Sounds familiar... Cheerio

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...nd=premium-asia